By Aaron M Smith
Following up Chas’ insightful analysis of the National League, let’s take a look at how the American League is stacked up for the 2009 season.
East
Baltimore Orioles – Current GM Andy McPhail is mid stream in his rebuilding process of the Orioles. The O’s locked up Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis to long term contracts – a step in the right direction for the O’s. The 2009 starting pitching staff is questionable to start the season with Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, and newcomer Koji Uehara. But don’t fear O’s fans, help should be on the way by mid season with top prospects Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta just about ready for the major league level. Adam Jones and Luke Scott round out a young OF. Top Prospect Matt Weiter was sent down to start the season – but for how long?
Boston Red Sox – Now that the Manny Ramirez fiasco is behind them, the Red Sox appear primed for another run at a World Series title. David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew appear to be healthy – can they stay healthy and can they be productive? The Red Sox added pieces to their bullpen, which for better part of 2008 was inconsistent. Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito were added and Justin Masterson was left in the bullpen. Starters Brad Penny and John Smoltz were brought in to battle for the #5 position in the rotation. Penny has been throwing well, but can he hold up? Where will Smoltz go when he is ready in June? The Red Sox farm system is loaded with pitching, starting with Clay Bucholtz, Micheal Bowden, Daniel Bard, and Junichi Tazawa. Will one of them be traded during the season if the Red Sox offense falters?
New York Yankees – Much was made about the Yankees and their spending during the off-season. But there is no doubt the Yankees addressed some major needs. Gone are Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu. Players that symbolized the Yankees recent frustration in not winning the World Series. A-Rod’s off-season was welcome documented, and had to have surgery to take care of a cyst on his hip. However, the torn labrum remains – how will that affect his play when he comes back? A-Rod, Mark Texiera and Jorge Posada should be extremely formidable . Sabathia and Burnett have been added to what is quite possibly the best rotation in MLB. Wang, Pettite and Chamberlain round out the rest of the rotation. Questions remain with the bullpen – not with the closer, but can Marte and Bruney bridge the gap between starters and Mariano? How will A.J. Burnett respond to playing in New York?
Toronto Blue Jays – If any team took a hit this off-season it was the Blue Jays. A.J. Burnett left for the Yankees,and young pitchers Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan are potentially out for the season with shoulder problems. Both could be back by the end of the season, but if the season isn’t going anywhere – look for the Jays to shut them down. However Roy Halladay remains and expect him to be a workhorse for the Jays. Lineup remains formidable – led by Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen.
Tampa Bay Rays – Last year’s surprise team, the Rays look to build off a season that got them to the World Series. Look for Evan Longoria to be a MVP candidate. Carl Crawford is healthy and looks to have a bounce back year. The rest of the lineup is strong with Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, offseason acquisition Pat Burrell and Akinori Iwamura. Starting rotation is strong with Jamie Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and an underrated Andy Sonnastine. Top prospect David Price was sent to the minors to start the season, but should be back up to take the fifth spot in the rotation. Closer is slightly suspect with Troy Percival taking the reins. Grant Balfour, J. P. Howell and Dan Wheeler round out a good bullpen. With such a strong AL East, can the Rays build off last year?
Central
Cleveland Indians – The Indians look to rebound from a disappointing 2008 campaign. The lineup, led by Grady Sizemore is formidable and will be even stronger if Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner can return to form. Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona create one the best 1-2 punches in baseball at the top of the rotation, but can Scott Lewis, Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes fill out the rest of the rotation? Jake Westbrook is on the mend and beginning to throw. His return in May/June should provide stability for the back end of the rotation. Kerry Wood was brought in to be the closer and should eliminate a huge need for the Indians.
Chicago White Sox – A team that is balancing rebuilding and making a run for the World Series at the same time. Carlos Quentin, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko anchor a lineup that lead the American League in Home Runs last year. But the lineup also has youngsters such as Dewayne Wise, Alexei Ramirez, Josh Fields and Chris Getz. How will manager Ozzie Guillen handle the youngsters if they struggle early? Starting rotation is anchored by the veteran Mark Buehrle and youngsters Gavin Floyd and Jon Danks. Can Jose Contreras make it back from the Achilles injury of a year ago? Bullpen is solid with Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton and Scott Linebrink
Minnesota Twins – Lineup is made up a combination of speed and power which suits the Metrodome. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer lead the offense and the Twins are counting on Joe Crede and Michael Cuddyer to provide big bats behind Morneau. Starting rotation is young, but was solid last year. Francisco Liriano leads the rotation and is a year away from Tommy John surgery. Liriano could be a Cy Young candidate this year. Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker were welcomed surprises last year and certainly hope to build off 2008. Bullpen is solid led by closer Joe Nathan.
Kansas City Royals – This could be this year’s surprise team. Off season additions of Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs provide additional speed, power and defense to solid lineup. Alot of Royals’ success in contingent on Alex Gordon who has been compared to George Brett. Time for Gordon to step up and take the next step. Gile Meche and Zack Greinke lead a decent Royals rotation. Greinke has been mentioned by experts to be a potential Cy Young candidate this year. Bullpen is strong led by Joakim Soria.
Detroit Tigers – Another team that is balancing rebuilding and making a run at title. The offense lead by Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez and Placido Polanco. Is Cabrera ready to take the next step, as experts are touting MVP and Triple Crown potential for him. Starting rotation is a mess, as Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander try to return to form. Both Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis start the season on the DL. In the meantime, can Verlander and Armando Galarraga tread water until both get back. Can Edwin Jackson provide stabilization in the lineup. Tigers replaced Todd Jones as their closer with Brandon Lyons. Joel Zumaya begins the year on the DL, but should be back relatively soon to help out Fernando Rodney and Bobby Seay.
West
Los Angeles Angels – The Angels lost out in the Texeira Sweepstakes and were probably the team hurt most by it. Offense again is lead by Vlad, Tori Hunter and addition Bobby Abreu. For as much as Vlad swings at the first pitch he sees, Abreu should offset him with his deliberate approach at the plate. Is Chone Figgins healthy and ready to wreck havoc at the top of the lineup? Starting rotation is strong but Mike Scioscia has to be concerned. Both starters John Lackey and Ervin Santana start the season on the DL, and Kelvim Escobar is coming off an injury from last season. Can the rotation hold up until all 3 are healthy? Brian Fuentes was brought in to replace K-Rod. Bullpen is solid with Fuentes, Scott Shields and Jose Arredondo.
Oakland Athletics – When looking at the A’s roster, one would believe there are mixed messages. The pitching staff is extremely young. The only pitcher of recognition is Justin Duscherer and he starts the season the DL. But Billy Beane is well… Billy Beane and has added veterans to the lineup. Jason Giambi and Matt Holliday pack a solid 3-4 punch in the lineup. Can Orlando Cabrera conform to Beane’s style of offense? Holliday, who is a free agent at the end of the year just on a 4 month stop in Oakland?
Texas Rangers – Some what of a same story scenario is Texas. All hitting and suspect pitching. Lineup is stacked from hitters 1-9, led by Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler and reclamation project – Andruw Jones. Youngsters Nelson Cruz and Chris Davis have the ability to hit 30-40 HRs apiece this year. Is catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia ready to take the next step and become a star. Starting rotation is lead by Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla. If Brandon McCarthy, and Kris Benson can provide something at the back of the rotation, this team could make a run at the AL West.
Seattle Mariners – A team that largely stood pat for much of the off-season. Offense still centers around Ichiro, but Ken Griffey Jr., Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Lopez and Adrian Beltre will be counted on. Beltre is in a contract year and the last time that happened, he hit 46 home runs that year. Felix Hernandez leads a pitching staff that could be strong. If Erik Bedard lives up to his promise – could provide a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. How Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Ryan Rowland-Smith hold how the back of the rotation, remains to be seen. Can Brandon Morrow replace J.J. Putz who was traded to the Mets? If not, it could be a long season for the bullpen.
Chas says
Nice job, Smitty. Great image. I wish you would have suggested that I do something similar.
One thing you said jumps out at me…personally, I think Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona need to have more than one good year each before we start calling them one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, especially considering their good years didn’t even coincide with each other.
Smitty says
Chas – I agree completely. I meant to put in there that Lee & Carmona “potentially” make up one of the best.. They certainly have the potential to be..
As for the image – certainly got luck finding that one.
Wally says
Guys —
Thanks for the team-by-team previews. Awesome job!
Crossword Pete says
Ditto what Wally said. After Chas’ well-written piece I wasn’t sure Smitty could match it, but touche. Well done by both of you. Now to pickin’!
Rey says
Great preview, very in depth – thanks Smitty 🙂
Hoping Cleveland’s rotation can stay healthy and perhaps the run support will be a little more consistent for guys not named Cliff Lee this year. Especially need Pavano, Westbrook, (when he returns) Carmona and Wood do buck their recent trends and stay off the DL. Hafner has become an oddity. I hear they are moving Ryan Garko to the outfield and has done well in spring training. Martinez’s move to 1st permanently will help him, and Kelly Shoppach looks like he can turn in to one of the game’s premier catchers.
David Price to the minors and as a starter? Is this a move to get him used to starting? Wasn’t he more of a reliever/closer at Vanderbilt as well? Just seemed like he was key to the Rays post season success last year, why move him down.
Whatever happened to Jarrod Washburn’s potential? Has Seattle become the place where potential goes to die? I thought he was one of the more coveted pitchers back when he was with the Angels.
Smitty says
Rey – I think David Price was always viewed as a starter. When he was called up last year at the expansion of rosters in September – I think they felt the best exposure for him during the pennant race was the bullpen. Plus alot of teams are being careful with the number of innings young pitchers are throwing. Similar to a year ago when the Sox just shut down Buchholtz for the season. They didn’t want to jeopardize his arm, so they moved him to the bullpen.
That being said, Price gave them a huge boost in the bullpen last year , I think there was the temptation to leave him as the closer. But hard throwing lefties are hard to come by and ultimately they want him to be a starter. He starts in the minors, the monitor the number of innings, pitches he throws and then they will probably call him up in late May/early June. But if the guy throws strikes, he is lights out.
As for Jarrod Washburn – After 10 full seasons – potential just becomes the truth. Or in this case a little bit of non-fiction. I know teams had high hopes for him, but he really isn’t more then a good #4 or #5 pitcher in the rotation. He has a career ERA of 4.13 and an adjusted ERA of 108. He just hasn’t lived up to what teams were hoping for.
Chas says
I agree with Smitty about Price and Washburn. All I have to add is that Washburn’s had a pretty decent career. He looked like he might be something special, but he just turned out to be above average.
I just love that Smitty’s using ERA+ to back up his points now. 🙂
Hey Rey, I’m in Dallas this week. Wednesday night I’m going to see your team’s second game of the year.
Rey says
Chas – that means you’ll see Carmona pitch. Good deal. Provide some game notes afterwards.
Smitty says
Chas – I am slowly becoming a Bill James convert.. 🙂
Casey says
Chas – Dallas this week? Was it her idea? 🙂 (referring to the B&B comment of a while back)
Casey says
When did Chris Washburn start playing baseball? 🙂
Smitty says
Right after he was kicked out of the NBA..
Chas says
No Casey, this is a work trip. I’m at a conference.
Casey says
Chas – check out Rey’s article on Izzo and the link to Bleacher Report that I left in a comment.