By Paul Casey Gotham
Setting: The Blackburn-McCafferty Trophy is on the line at the Cintas Center as Brian Gregory brings his Dayton Flyers (14-4/ 2-1) south on I 75 for a clash with Chris Mack and his Xavier Musketeers (10-5/ 2-0). The trophy honors former Dayton coach Tom Blackburn (1947-64) and Xavier coach and athletic director, Jim McCafferty (1957-63).
Plot: Position in conference standings is on the line. Along with the Musketeers, the Flyers trail three other unbeaten teams in the conference – Temple, George Washington and Duquesne.
There will be a plenty of energy on campus and plenty more on the court. Dayton will look to take advantage of Xavier’s short bench. Ten Flyers average 10 or more minutes per game. Because of injuries, the Musketeers have nine scholarship players.
Sub-plot: Both squads enter play coming off a win. Chris Wright scored 14 points and grabbed 10 rebounds as the Flyers defeated the St. Joe’s Hawks 65-59. Tu Holloway led five Muskies in double figures as Xavier trounced UMass 79-50. Dayton has not won on Xavier’s home court since 1981.
Flashback: Holloway scored 22, and Jason Love corralled 10 rebounds as the X-Men advanced to the A10 semi-finals with a 78-73 triumph over the Flyers at the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. Dayton leads the series 82-63. Xavier has taken eight of the last nine meetings.
Xavier has earned 21 NCAA Tournament berths, including last year’s Sweet Sixteen run and Elite Eight showings in 2008 and 2004. Dayton’s resume includes 14 appearances in ‘The Dance.’ Brian Gregory took the Flyers to the tourney in 2009 and in 2004.
Foreshadowing: Sixteen Flyers have gone on to enjoy careers in the NBA, including Jim Paxson Jr. and Johnny Davis. Seventeen Musketeers have played in the Association, including current stars Derrick Brown, Jordan Crawford, James Posey and David West.
Conflict: Both teams play games in the 60s. Dayton scores 66 while surrendering 62. Xavier scores 69 and gives up 64. The Muskies hold a slight advantage in field goal percentage (44 percent to Dayton’s 39). Turnovers are a near wash. UD creates as many as they commit. XU has a slight advantage (.8). The Flyers take and make slightly more free throws per game than their adversaries as do the Musketeers. But the Flyers have an edge on the boards. Their 5.6 rebounding margin ranks in the top 50 nationally.
Dayton’s Chris Wright and Xavier’s Jamel McLean could be the individual match-up of the night. Both average a near double-double (Wright 13.3 ppg/ 9.2, McLean 11.3 / 9.5).
Wright will end Dayton’s drought when he plays in the N.B.A. next year. Wright can overpower with brute strength. He has developed a mid-range game that makes him difficult to guard. Opponents can not lay off him from 15 feet. Get too close though, and Wright will blow by a defender with one dribble and a dunk.
McLean’s back-to-the basket game has quietly matured. He is patient with the ball in the post allowing the play to develop and finding open teammates. At the same time, he can finish with either hand. When the ball goes in the air, McLean is difficult to keep in check.
Dayton’s freshman point guard, Juwan Staten, and Xavier’s Tu Holloway are primarily responsible for feeding the ball into the post.
Staten hands out more than six assists per game and he possesses a better than 2:1 assist to turnover ratio . For a freshman, he has an uncanny ability to play within himself.
Holloway has the talent to be the best point guard in the country, when he keeps his emotions in check. The Xavier junior could dominate Staten. But he also could lose sight of winning the game and turn the point guard battle into a personal confrontation.
Dante Jackson hit five of eight shots from long range when the Muskies beat Dayton at Cintas last year. Chris Johnson averages two threes a game for the Flyers. Jackson and Johnson could tip the scales in the game. Whoever of these guys gets hot will affect floor spacing and the length of passing lanes to be defended.
Xavier’s Mark Lyons and Kenny Frease have played inconsistently this year. Both are capable of big performances. It is also possible for them to be a liability.
At 7′, Frease is a difficult match-up. Add to that a baby hook he has developed and Frease can get 22 like he did against Wake Forest. The following game he accounted for zero at Gonzaga.
Lyons averages 12 a game. He scored 11 in a loss to Cincinnati and two in a loss to Florida. His assist to turnover rate is one to one, but those numbers do not include shots that Lyons forces.
Paul Williams provides a deep threat for the Flyers. The junior guard hits almost 49 percent from long range.
Dayton’s Josh Parker, Devin Searcy and Josh Benson combine for 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Conflict: After limping through the end of December and an emotional game at Cincinnati, the Musketeers seemed to have found their just in time for conference play. The Flyers will take this game to final minutes, but Xavier’s play-makers will be too much. Staten will put up a struggle, but Xavier’s experienced back court will outlast the freshman. Xavier will come away with with a five-point victory.
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