By Paul Casey Gotham
Setting: The Cintas Center on the campus of Xavier University is the scene when Billy Donovan brings his Florida Gators (9-3) to Cincinnati for a non-conference battle with Chris Mack and his Xavier Musketeers (8-3).
Plot: Southeastern Conference meets Atlantic 10 in this clash of perennial NCAA tournament contenders.
Sub-plot: Injuries woes continue to plague the Musketeers. Freshman, Jay Canty will be lost for 4-6 weeks due to a stress fracture. The injury decreases the number of scholarship players on the Xavier bench to nine. Sharp-shooter, Brad Redford was lost earlier in the season along with freshman, Justin Martin.
The Gators will be looking to avenge last year’s loss in Gainesville.
The game is the first of two versus A10 foes for the Gators. Florida hosts Rhode Island on January 3rd. Xavier’s next tilt is January sixth, the Crosstown Shootout against the undefeated Cincinnati Bearcats.
Flashback: Jason Love led with 20 points. Jordan Crawford added 18, and Kenny Frease chipped in 12 as the X-Men tamed the Gators 76-64 at the O’Connell on the Florida campus last February. Xavier holds a 2-0 advantage in the all-time series.
Donovan has led Florida to 10 of the school’s 15 NCAA tournament appearances including back-to-back national titles in ’06 and ’07. Seven different coaches have led the Musketeers to 21 NCAA tournament appearances including Eight Eight showings in ’04 and ’08. Xavier is one of two schools (Michigan State the other) to advance to the Sweet Sixteen in each of the last three NCAA tournaments. The Musketeers are one 12 schools to earn five straight NCAA tournament invitations.
Foreshadowing: Twenty former Gators have laced them up in the National Basketball Association. Matt Bonner, Corey Brewer, Udonis Haslem, Al Horford, David Lee, Mike Miller, Joakim Noah, Mareese Speights and Jason Williams are among those with roster spots this season. Seventeen Musketeers have suited up in the National Basketball Association with Derrick Brown, Jordan Crawford, James Posey and David West holding down current roster spots.
Conflict: Offense will be at a premium in this contest. Over their last seven games, the Gators have held opponents to 53 points limiting opposing shooters to 38 percent from the field and 30 percent behind the arc. Xavier limits opponents to 67 including 64 to Gonzaga (11 under their season average) and 49 to Butler (25 under thier season average).
Florida throws the kitchen sink at opponents. The Gators will use a variety of full-court pressure, half-court zone and man-to-man with traps depending upon the situation. The result is a frenetic pace where the Gators create 14.5 turovers per game. At the same time, UF struggles with possession committing 14 of their own miscues per contest.
Xavier, and more specifically, the Xavier backcourt will need to dictate tempo.
Florida’s guard tandem of Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker can create havoc. If allowed the duo will gain momentum and take over a game. Walker leads UF with more than 13 points per game including 44.8 percent from long range. Boynton adds 12.3 but is a woeful 26.3 percent from behind the arc. The duo hand out five and a half assists but turn it over at a rate of 4.5 per 40 minutes. That’s not counting the 56 misses Boynton has had from long range.
Xavier’s Tu Holloway dishes out five and a half and turns it over 3.9 times. Against Butler’s stingy defense, Holloway committed just two miscues, but on the road at Gonzaga the Xavier point guard made seven mistakes. Holloway will need to take advantage of being in front of the home crowd.
Much of Holloway’s efficiency will depend upon the play of Xavier’s front court – Jamel McLean and especially Kenny Frease. McLean averages nearly a double-double for the X-Men. The senior is at his best when the ball is in the air. He averages more than three offensive rebounds per game. But the question to be answered is the play of Kenny Frease. The seven-footer strung together five double-digit nights including 22 points against Wake Forest before bottoming out versus Gonzaga. Frease committed four fouls in just 18 minutes of playing time against the front court of the Zags.
How will Frease match-up against Florida’s Vernon Macklin (6’10”) and Alex Tyus (6’8″)? Macklin and Tyus are exactly the challenge Frease needs. The front court duo creates plenty of contact in the paint. Frease will need to keep his feet moving to avoid silly fouls.
Jeff Robinson (6’9″) and Andrew Taylor (6’8″) will supply important minutes from the bench for Xavier. The two will be needed to limit Florida’s second chance opportunities on the glass.
Mark Lyons and Dante Jackson could prove to be the difference if the two can connect from long range. Lyons hit six treys against Albany on Tuesday. Jackson has hit at least three in each of Xavier’s last three games. If that trend continues, Florida’s defense will have to shade toward Jackson and create space for Holloway to create in the middle of the floor.
Resolution. Xavier has the second-longest home winning streak in the country at 30, and the X-Men will add to that number on New Year’s Eve. Xavier will challenge Florida’s recent success limiting opponents on the three-point arc. Tu Holloway has established himself as a point guard who can dictate tempo. Florida will struggle creating turnovers, and the Musketeer half-court defense willl frustrate the Gators.
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