By Aaron M Smith
As we are in the first days of October, I have this vision of Vin Scully out walking his dog, describing the beginning of fall. It goes something like this: “As the leaves turn, so does the chapter in this novel we call the 2010 Major League Baseball season.” I am sure his dog would be to busy trying to figure which tree to mark his/her territory to listen, but for me – it is poetry that I could listen to all day. Now this vision didn’t really happen, but October is here – so are the Divisional series. 8 teams remain and only 3 games stand between them and a trip to their respective League Championships series. But before we get too far ahead, let’s take a look each Divisional series:
American League:
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins – When Boston beat New York yesterday, which team was happier – Minnesota or Texas? My money is on the Texas Rangers. In the 2000s, the Yankees have faced Minnesota in the ALDS 3 times – 2003, 2004 and 2009 with a record of 9-2. Game 1 will feature a pair of lefties – Francisco Liriano and C.C. Sabathia. After Game 1, the Twins will follow with Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn. The Yankees answer with Andy Pettite, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett. Much of the Twins ability to knock off the Yankees will depend on the health of All-Star Joe Mauer. With Justin Morneau out for the season, the Twins cannot afford to lose their MVP for any part of this series. Games 1 and 2 take place in the spacious Target Field – the Yankees will have to rely on the feet of Granderson, Gardner and Jeter to engineer runs. Jorge Posada is slightly under 15% in throwing runners out – will the Twins put runners in motion to create chaos on the base paths?
Prediction : Yankees in 5 games.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays – When the Texas Rangers made the trade early in 2010 for Cliff Lee – they envisioned him being the horse that got them to the World Series. Game 1 will be that first step as Lee will face David Price. Bad new for the Rangers – the Rays have the second best W-L record when their opponent starts a left-hander. Texas starters for Games 1 and 2? Lefties. The Rays beat Lee three times this year – once when he was with Seattle. However – the Rays leader, Evan Longoria is battling an injury – will he be effective? The Rangers got a HUGE piece of their puzzle back with the return of Josh Hamilton. Not only is Hamilton their best player, he also provides protection for Vladimir Guerrero in the batting order. Rangers bullpen won 32 games during the season and was a key to the Ranger’s success during the regular season. Can their success carryover into the postseason? The Rays bats have disappeared at times during the season – having 2 no-hitters thrown against them in 2010. October is not the time for one of those slumps.
Prediction: A shocker – Texas in 5 games.
National League:
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants – Bobby Cox’s retirement tour continues, and this makes the Braves dangerous. This series features 2 teams that rely heavily on their pitching as neither offense can be labeled with the title “juggernaut.” The Giants will send out Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez. That leaves former Cy Young winner, Barry Zito as the 4th option in their rotation. The Giants closer, Brian Wilson, has been dominant. The Braves send out playoff veterans, Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson. Throw in Tommy Hanson and the Braves have a formidable starting 3. With injuries to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, the Braves will rely on an aging Derrick Lee and rookie Jason Heyward to carry them to the NLCS. One name to watch in the Giants lineup – Buster Posey, possible NL Rookie of the Year.
Prediction: Atlanta in 5 games.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies – The surprise team against the hottest team in the National League. The Phillies, probably the favorite to win the World Series, will send a formidable starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt. Equally dangerous is two of those starters have not won a World Series – look for Halladay and Oswalt to pitch lights out in the playoffs. The Phillies lineup is healthy, but the key is Jimmy Rollins. When Rollins is healthy, he is the catalyst for a potentially dangerous lineup. The Reds have done of an amazing job of mixing youth with veterans to provide the right chemistry. Playoff baseball is back in Ohio!! The Reds will send youngsters Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. The Reds lineup features MVP candidate Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips. If either team has a weakness, it is their bullpens. Can both hold up? Will rookie flame thrower, Aroldis Chapman provide stability in the Reds bullpen? Both ballparks are hitter friendly, so anticipate a high scoring series.
Prediction: Phillies in 3 games.
Got a Prediction? Let’s hear it!
Smitty … while you were posting this, I was writing something similar. (Great minds thinking alike, but we need to coordinate better ;)). Your analysis is more thorough than mine … good job! Anyway, I’ll just post what I wrote here:
It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Yes, the pursuit of baseball’s holy grail begins Wednesday. In case you’ve been stranded in a cave somewhere in Bolivia, here are the opening round playoff matchups:
American League:
— Texas Ranger at Tampa Bay Rays
— NY Yankmees at Minnesota Twins
National League:
— Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
— Atlanta Braves at SF Giants
So loyal readers, how’s this gonna play out? Will the “prohibitive favorites”, the Yankmees, Rays and/or Phillies, prevail again? Or will we see some new teams emerge as champions? “Conventional wisdom” will point to the Phillies in the NL as probably having the best chance to reach the World Series of all 8 teams due to their starting pitching, overall talent, playoff experience … and the fact that they essentially soared to the NL’s best record after getting healthy. That same wisdom might also point to Tampa or NY in the AL as they battled eachother all year for the division title and simply won more games than Minnesota and Texas. HOWEVER, the Twins had a scorching best record during the second half and just coasted during the final 10 games after clinching.
Wally’s picks (brain’s submission): In the AL, Rays beat Texas and Twins beat Yankmees. Then Rays beat the Twins to go to the WS. In the NL, Phillies over the Reds and Giants beat Braves … with the Phillies going to the WS. Phillies beat the Rays to take home the big trophy.
Wally’s picks (heart’s hope): Twins playing the Giants in the WS … with the Twins prevailing in 7 games to claim their 3rd WS title.
Let us know how you see it. Ya gotta love October ! 🙂
I agree with just about everything Smitty said, except that I don’t think Texas beating Tampa Bay is a shocker. It’s a given.
Braves-Giants is a tossup, but I’ll pick the Braves. Phillies will make quick work of the Reds, Twins will give the Yanks a hard time, but NY will prevail.
Texas beats the Yankees in the ALCS. Phillies take down the Braves. Yes, that’s right. We’ll see Halladay vs. Lee in the World Series, and Lee will make the Phillies rue the day they traded him.
Yes, you heard it here first (I think?)…the Texas Rangers (the oldest team to never win the World Series) will finally rule the baseball world.
Nice job Smitty, by the way.
Whoa! The Rangers? Dang, I am glad I was sitting down. Please warn me in the future. 🙂
Wow, Chas, that’s going out on a limb … and I admire your courage. But Texas winning it all would certainly be a welcome result … at least from my POV. Would be nice to see Nolan Ryan’s team be an annual contender.
So who are the three oldest teams to never win a WS? The Padres gotta be near the top of that list … and you must be including Texas’s fomer life as the Washington Senators, right? And what about the Brewers?
Yes, you’re right, I should have said oldest franchise. They started as the Washington Senators in 1961, Houston started out in 1962 and still hasn’t won a World Series. After that, it’s a few teams that started out in 1969…I believe San Diego, Milwaukee, Montreal/Washington, and maybe one more.
Texas has a serious ace, a couple good starting pitchers beyond him, an excellent (although unproven in the postseason) bullpen, and some serious offensive firepower. On the latter point, everybody talks about Hamilton and Guerrero, but let’s not forget two players who missed significant time due to injury: Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz (.318, 22 HR in 399 AB). Why not?
I am thoroughly disappointed that we showed the Reds no love! I have clearly brought some good luck with me to Xavier Basketball, we can’t give the Reds at least a game? 🙂
How could I forget about the Astros?!?!?
From my POV, the “why not?” for Texas would boil down to their lack of playoff experience … not only the players, but the manager and coaches. I can see them winning a playoff series, two is a real stretch, and 3 is a dream. BUT … it’s good to dream and you have to break through some time (unless you’re the Cubs ;)). So maybe now’s the time. And Cliff Lee certainly is a very experienced anchor on the mound with Guerrero providing that on the field.
Abbey —
I would love to see the Reds go far, but they open against a juggernaut in Philly. Cinci will probably win a game or two, just not three. But again … I’m with ya … I hope they break through!
Smitty,
All my picks counter yours, because I’m a lousy bettor, and because my view is so warped. I see the Yanks losing the first two, and then the Steinbrenner kids digging up the old man to put on a chair in centerfield to try and stimulate the club. But Jeter’s too busy thinking of an acting career after he’s done in the Bronx, A-Rod too busy clubbing and trying to get lucky with Madonna, and the other Yanks, well, they’re all partying too. Twins win in 4.
Tampa Bay takes Texas, not because they’re better, but because they’re the little engine that could, and Baseball needs a rags to riches type storyline so Joe Buck can pontificate and wax poetic (because I’m sure the little engine that could was his favorite book).
Giants take Atlanta, only because Bobby Cox is done, and if he ain’t cranky, or making a scene, he’s not happy. Besides, it gives him a chance to go on a major league bender, something he’s probably been dying to do for a long time.
And yes, the Reds take the Phillies. I know, the Phillies have been streaking, but they’ll be the ones to choke this year, as some teams and players always do, and they’ll choke like a six foot cheesesteak is being shoved down each of their throats. All the bad bounces, bad calls, and poor plays will happen to them. Why? Because I’m a Mets fan and need some sort of redemption.
Of course, I’ll revise all this after the first round.
Hmmm…I have to say that questioning Derek Jeter’s focus is way more ridiculous than questioning his ethics, but I could see the Twins beating the Yankees.
Johnny Cueto’s going to have to kick Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt in the head for the Reds to beat the Phillies.
Hahaha – You “have to say….” Haha. Gee, thanks for fulfilling your obligation.
Any team but the Phillies, and I would go with the Reds. Worth noting that the Reds have played the Phillies close all year. The Reds beat Halladay and took 2 of 3 back in June. The Phillies swept a four-game set in Philly but outscored the reds by a combined total of 5 runs. Two of those games were 1-0. Dusty Baker’s crew has been doing it on intangibles all year – the Reds will win one maybe two games.
Casey … I’m a little confused … are you going with the Reds or not? You open up by saying that, but then you end by saying the Reds will win one or two games. One or two games won’t win the series. Or are you simply voicing a preference for the Reds while noting they are definitely underdogs??
You make me very happy with those predictions. A braves fan born and raised I’d like to see them win, plus I thought I was the only one picking them.
The fact that it is a 5 game series leads me to think that the Reds have an actual chance. This of course is hopefull thinking since I’m not particularly fond of the Phillies.
I’ll go on a limb and say the Reds overtaking the Phillies in 4 games. Strictly from the heart and wishful thinkin.
All in all great predictions.
Sorry for the confusion. It should read – IF they were playing any other team but the Phillies, I would go with the Reds….
Cincy will win a game or two, but not the series.
I will stay close to the trunk – I don’t see ANYONE beating the Phillies. I have no idea about any other series. The Phils will win 11 games.
Casey … it’s kinda scarey when your brain and mine see things the same way. A sign of the apocalypse??
Gino … hard not to root for the underdog Braves this year … they have persevered through key injuries and battled the whole way. But I just want to see the Giants … the SF Giants …. finally win a WS. It’s been about 50 years since they moved from NY and still no title …. the Bonds team back in ’03 really let one get away.
I’m also “obliged” to point out that it was ’02 that the Giants let one slip away. It’s also my duty to point out that Roy Oswalt’s career was on a downswing until he was traded to the Phillies. Did that rejuvenate his career, or did he just get hot? If the latter is the case, will it continue through the playoffs? Also, which Cole Hamels will we see in this year’s postseason?
The Phillies are far from a lock, folks.
Chas —
You make a great point about baseball … there is no such thing as “a lock ” in this sport where the “best teams” won ~61% of their games and the other “so-so” teams in the playoffs have won ~56% of their games. Really … what’s the difference?? I guess it’s probably more meaningful to see who’s hot (or not) over the last 30 games. But as they say … “Momentum in baseball is tomorrow’s starting pitcher”. And as others have aptly pointed out … in a 5 or 7 game series, three or even just two real strong starting pitchers is a huge advantage … plus a solid bullpen.
So who has the best pitching right now of all playoff teams?? Is it the Giants? Probably … but they’re young and lack playoff experience. Certainly the Phillies are in the discussion … before you talk bullpen. What I’m afraid of is that Volquez and Cueto of the Reds will self-destruct quickly … then what??
Oh … and Cliff Lee can’t pitch every game for Texas … uh oh! The Yankmees have been golden in the playoffs for a decade plus in large part because of Mariano Rivera … but he appears to be on a downward slide … uh oh! What we don’t know is who will surprise us with stellar performances … some of the Rangers young hurlers???
Anyway, my brain cannot ignore the Phillies all-around excellence, esp on the starting pitcher’s mound. And what makes anyone think Oswalt will cool off suddenly?? He’s given up 7 runs in his last 7 games since Sep 1 … looks like he’s on top of his game. Hamels has had a similar September to remember. Now toss into the mix that line up on the field … that offense! All those seasoned players at or near their prime.
So … agree … there is never “a lock” in baseball. But if I had to bet on only 1 team to make it to the WS (gun to my head), I’d have to pick the Phillies at this point.
Wally, I totally agree that the Phillies are the favorite. If Vegas was offering 8-1 odd on every team, I’d probably lay some money on the Phils. But, obviously, the Rangers are a bigger long shot, and when it comes to making predictions, even though there’s no money involved, the reward is greater when you pick an underdog to win.
So, I don’t blame anyone for picking the Phillies. I just like the way this Rangers team looks on paper, and I’m not a huge believer in either the Yankees or the Rays this year, so I think they can definitely win the AL. Then, when you compare them to the Phillies…sure the Phils have stronger starting pitching, but I’m not a big Oswalt fan, and I like C.J. Wilson as much as any unproven pitcher in the postseason (and Lewis is very good too), so I think that brings their starting staffs a little closer than most people think. Then, I look at bullpens, and it makes me feel that the Phillies have an achilles heel, and the Rangers are a more well-rounded team.
I guess I’m riding a bit of a hunch too, and we know how that can get us in trouble. But, I’m sticking with my pick. That said, I’ll admit that the Rangers have a greater chance of a first-round exit than the Phils.
I sense a little sarcasm in your “insight of the week,” Casey. Either that or a complete lack of understanding of what is and isn’t insightful.
Like I said before, Chas, I would love to see an underdog like the Rangers win it all. Things like that restore my faith in the premise that the little guys and lower payrolls can win, too. By the way, I haven’t been there yet and i will, i really want to see a game at The Ballpark at Arlington. Looks awesome on TV and my brother said it was great when he went several years back.
Maybe someday a franchise that’s both wealthy and stupid will win it all … that’d be the Cubs. But probably not 😉
Well, let’s also not forget the wildcard that is the weather. Baseball in the 40’s may be nostalgic, but baseball with temperatures in the 40’s tends to affect pitchers and their grips. I don’t think Texas and Tampa have any problems, but the northern and eastern times might have problems. What’s Minnesota like in October?
Balmy
Bill, Bill, Bill … time for a tutorial on baseball weather. COLD = big advantage to pitchers, big disadvantage to hitters. When it’s cold, the warmest players on the field are the pitchers because they’re in constant motion. Everyone else is cold. Hitters hate cold weather … just a matter of physics … stings the hands more and the ball doesn’t travel nearly as far. A ball in the summer that lands in the 10th row for a HR will be nothing more than a warning track can of corn if temps are in the ’40s.
Everyone thinks playoff baseball is low-scoring because of the great pitching. Well, maybe the pitching is great at least partly due to low temps.
Forecast for Minneapolis during next few days: daytime highs in low 70s, nightime lows in mid-high 40s. Pitcher’s delight!
The summer is over baby! I am so stoked for the baseball playoffs. I predict cinci is going to the world series.
Wally, Wally, Wally, I wouldn’t say a big advantage for pitchers, since their grip is affected. Sure the players coming off the bench to hit are cold, and stand a greater chance of pulling a muscle. But if the pitcher can’t grip the ball well, then it’s a control issue for him and the strike zone. Of course, it’s probably offset by hitters looking to get a hit earlier in the count, which might lead to more strikeouts.
Boog !!! You gotta chime in here … you’re a “baseball guy” …. and since your BoSox are watching from home, you can be somewhat objective.
What wisdom do you espouse??? Sorry … forget that … too much to ask. Okay, then, what are your predictions???
Bill —
No comment on this “grip thing” … if you say it’s an issue, we’ll take your word for it 😉
Seriously … Bill … it’s not like pitchers are wearing mittens on cold days. Trust me … they can still grip the baseball just fine.
Hey, if I’m wrong, I’m wrong, no worries. Why do pitchers blow on their hands in the cold then?
(and I don’t know how to do those smiley face icon things, or I’d put one in).
well, then substitute Control issues for the word grip. It’s been a long day here and I’m about to kill someone, so I’m not thinking too clearly.
Since school is in session and the Headmaster Wally is giving out free lessons – I think he is right regarding the impact of the cold fall air on baseball.
I am not sure Twins officials will admit it, but I think Target Field and its spacious dimensions were made for this type of weather. Both Morneau and Mauer complained during the summer that it took a blast to get the ball out of Target Field. With cold air, the ball doesn’t carry. Teams playing the Twins in Minnesota, will have to rely on manufacturing runs and not so much long ball.
Chicks digs the long ball, Twins fans dig small ball..
Can anyone remember the last time Game 1 of both games in the American League features 4 lefties?
I also think that the Giants have the best rotation in the playoffs. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and even Zito is deep. The question for me is whether they can manufacture enough room. When your home run leader is Juan Uribe – don’t you have problems? Actually he doesn’t Aubrey Huff does – but Uribe is second. Doesn’t that just scream “Lack of Offensive Productivity” ?
Class is still in session. Bill … pitchers blow on their hands to warm them up and, MORE IMPORTANTLY, to create a little moisture which actually gives them a better grip, esp in cold weather. Still, the pitcher is, by far, the warmest guy on the field or in the dugout on a cold day. He’s really the only guy in “constant motion”.
Smitty,
Chicks digs the long ball, Twins fans dig small ball..
LOL, Are you saying that only guys love the twins? Is there a homosexual tendency there, that we don’t know about? (not that there is anything wrong with that)
Great stuff! Some good stats on the Rangers-Rays series, but why would it be a shocker if the Rangers win? Thought they had a potent offense. I’ll take The Rangers in that one in 5 along with you, Smitty, even though I really like the Rays’ rotation.
Twins have some injuries? I don’t care, I wills till never pick the Yankees. Twins break out the brooms and sweep ’em!
Braves-Giants? No clue. I don’t like Lincecum’s hair or gutter mouth during a celebration, so I’ll take some dignity with the Braves.
“Playoff baseball is back in Ohio” –That hurt me, Smitty. Phils seem to have it all. Pitching, power, leadership and experience. Sorry, but playoff baseball in Ohio will be gone quickly.
The shocker, for me, starts with the fact that Texas has never won a playoff series.
In the wake of last night’s 30 for 30, could Derek Lowe carry the Braves? He was September Pitcher-of-the-month?
Gino – nah! Guys just respect the Twins.
For what it’s worth, 27 ESPN “experts” predicted the playoffs winners. Here’s a tally of predictions for the World Series winner:
Phillies 18
Rays 4
Yankmees 2
Giants 2
Rangers 1 (Chas … was that you???)
At the start of the division series, I would find it hard to believe in past years that any one team was named on 2/3 of the ballots like the Phillies are this year. Guess it will be a huge upset if anyone else wins. I suppose everyone thinks the Phillies have the easiest path to the WS, but beating the AL rep may be another story. Remember class, the Phillies are not a lock !!! (Professor Chas)
Chas is looking prophetic thus far … Rangers are up 5-0 in Game 1. Cliff Lee is in control.
Picked the Rangers this morning to beat Tampa. Tampa sort of limped in the playoffs like the Yankmees. I like the Rangers winning the American league. The world series is a toss up. Bobby Cox winning it would be nice though.
Rangers never won a playoff series ? I’ll go by the “due factor”. That means there due.
not to beat a dead horse, but this is the point I was trying make yesterday about cold weather and pitching when my brain was somewhere else.
https://www.dispatch.com/live/content/sports/stories/2010/04/17/pitching-this-time-of-year-is-a-cold-feat.html
Okay – again I left out some info. The “absolutely not” was a response to this: (keep in mind Kel is a Reds’ fan and has always been a Reds’ fan) I said I would buy two tix for her and Ab to attend while I stay with Ma McCabe (we are taking grandma for a tour of the campus this weekend). She said absolutely not. She wants me to go with Ab. I thought Mol might have known more of the story.
Reynell – sorry that wasn’t a dig at you.. Yeah, I should have remembered those sensitive Indians fans… although after LeBron leaving aren’t most of you just “Comfortably Numb” ?
There is my one and only song reference for the year..
So do the Reds recover from Halladay’s gem? We are certainly going to find out a little bit about these Reds in Game 2.
Fortunately for the Reds and Dusty Baker, they have a day off tomorrow to regroup. But their memories had better be short or this could be over before the weekend is out.
We just saw only the second no hitter in postseason history … that’s awesome! Unfortunately, it put the Reds in a bit of a hole. Agreed, Smitty … Hope they bounce back to win Game 2.
A great stat – Halladay faced 28 batters and threw 25 balls. Four of those were to one batter. He had a great rhythm going for the last five innings.
Larsen won about 50 AFTER his perfect game, and he was 26 at the time of his gem. Do you think Halladay will win more games than Larsen?