Another Rant from the Couch
by Bill Ribas
As Alex Rodriguez approaches the 600 mark for home runs, I thought, man, this arrogant, overpaid player, it’s not right, it’s not fair. To be honest, I don’t know the man, never met him, and until he signed a jaw dropping contract, never really thought too much about him. Oh yeah, he was a good player, I knew that, but he was out on the Mariners, and as you readers may know, I’m a Mets fan, so, eh, he didn’t bother me, I didn’t bother with him. Then the whole steroid thing came along, with grown men lying and crying like kids, pointing fingers elsewhere, it wasn’t me, despite before and after pictures of so many that looked like Keebler Elves had morphed into Lou Ferrigno body types, and frankly, guys usually bloat in the gut first (just check my mirror, for example), and like all baseball scandals, it eventually quieted down, and now no one really talks about it.
But then it got me thinking, it’d be easy to chart out his homers against fellas already in the 600 club (and that’s a short list). Surely, that would show something definitive about his use of drugs, and then I could sneer with glee and say, yeah, just like Canseco said, A-Rod is a punk, took drugs, and isn’t deserving of a stool at the 600 bar. Well, the results are a bit different than I suspected.
In the chart at left, you’ll see a comparison between A-Rod and Willie Mays (there’s a gap in Willie’s line because he didn’t play a year). The chart compares dingers from age 20 to 34, and as you can see, there are certain similarities between the two. Both start with an initial drop, and then spike upwards. After a few years, both show a drop off before coming back strong. A-rod’s numbers drop later in part because of injury, while Willie’s go upwards. They’re close, and you cold make the case that in A-Rod’s 20’s, he might have been juicing.
Something interesting occurs, though, when we look at A-Rod versus Hank Aaron. While there is still a large bump in A-Rod’s 20’s, the lines are almost too similar to distinguish from one another. Aaron doesn’t suffer from making it to the majors, as his numbers shoot up from the beginning. Yet both seem to level off for a few years (well, level off is misleading; the numbers are still higher than the average player), and then drop before heading toward the sky again. Also interesting is the drop off in the early 30’s.
Here’s the really shocking visual though, and that’s A-Rod versus Babe Ruth. The Babe seemed positively dormant until age 24 when he knocked out 29 homers (A-Rod hit 41). But what happens after that, as the graph shows is ridiculously stunning. I don’t have to tell you to look over at the graph, don’t have to give you numbers, because by now you’ve probably sworn under your breath, and have come to the same conclusion as I have. A-Rod really is that good. Had he not been injured, my guess is while his total may have been higher, he might have paralleled the Babe even further along the chart. Because for about 7 years there, A-Rod and the Babe are neck and neck.
What does all this mean? Well, it means I still am not a big fan of A-Rod, but I have to give him his due. As for totals, well, up to age 34, A-rod is at 594, and Babe is at 516 (and just for the record, in his next 3 years, Babe hits 49, 46, and 41 homers. Which would make things real interesting). One thing we can pretty much assume though is that Babe Ruth wasn’t taking steroids or growth hormone or whatever. One thing the two do seem to have in common is enjoying life outside of baseball, as stories abound about Ruth, and well, A-Rod has been linked to Madonna, so maybe there’s something along those lines.
Now A-Rod just took a shot to the hand, and may not hit number 600 for a few days, but there is no doubt he will hit it, and then hit some more. And yeah, there are a ton of questions that will never be answered, like did steroid use contribute to his injury, what would his numbers been had he not used, does Canseco still want to kill him for hitting on his wife, and so on. And while the comparisons don’t make me dislike him, they do force me to nod my head, ever so slightly in his direction for his accomplishments. For now though, I’ll get back to my stumbling Mets, assured by their performance that no one on that team is taking performance enhancing drugs, and if they are, they need to find a new dealer.
The graphs make it painfully obvious: Everyone Juiced!
I hate that A-Rod did it, because he seemed like the type of player mechanically and physically who was going to get there anyway. Oh well, such is sports now-a-days. Maybe if Griffey would have juiced he would have become superhuman, never injured, and crushed 1,000 homeruns.
I wonder how much women factor in to hitting homeruns. Too bad we can’t chart that relativity. A-Rod is certainly channeling Babe’s ghost with his dating practices.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a correlation between women and home runs. Obviously, if you’re having a great nightlife, well, you’d be more relaxed, and probably hit better. Plus, the better you hit the ball, the better the pool of women (no offense to women – look at it this way, George Clooney gets a lot more second looks than I do, for example), and that’s an incentive.
Rey,
When you say “everyone juiced” – who is everyone?
The graphs confirm that A-Rod needed supplements to keep up with Babe who was destroying himself with alcohol and carousing.
Willie Mays on steroids = 80 home runs in a season
I think Rey was just making a joke there. But the second part begs the question – if Babe wasn’t getting hammered, would he have hit more, or, if he didn’t get hammered, would he have hit less?
Either way, he hit what he hit with a waist line that would give you a run for your money. 🙂
Well, if I had his meal money . . . I’m just saying.
Anyone have the HR per AB stats for these great players. I think it’s telling … should show Babe Ruth to have been a phenomenal power hotter … and absolutely out of this world, esp given the era he played in.
My personal opinion is that we have’t given ARod his due as a great player … probably more because of his large salary, team jumping and womanizing.
Here you go Wally, using Baseball Reference.com season at bats and home runs.
Arod 8662/599 14.46
Babe 8399/714 11.76
Willie 10881/660 16.49
Barry 9487/762 12.45
Hank 12364/755 16.38
Junior 9801/630 15.56
Sammy 8813/609 14.47
I thought I once read stats that had Babe an 8 point something and McGwire surpassing him at 7 point something. Maybe that was in a single season, but I thought it was career. Bill was your calculation based on ABs or plate appearances?
Just looked it up. Ruth’s is the official figure. McGwire beat him with 10.61. Juiced, drunk, womanizing; I guess they all had some secret method (or 2). BTW, it is a leap to think that womanizing reduces stress. Those guys are usually running and hiding from someone.
I just took the total at bats from the baseball site. I didn’t add in post season or anything like that. I can do it for plate appearances. Hold on a second . . .
Arod 10019/599 16.73
Babe 10617/714 14.87
Willie 12493/660 18.93
Barry 12606/762 16.54
Hank 13940/755 18.46
Junior 11304/630 17.94
Sammy 9896/609 16.25
And yeah, McGwire’s number is higher, but he has substantially less at bats/ plate appearances. If anything, that should be a strong indicator that he took steroids, even though he cried like a baby and never said he did. Even Sosa’s number of appearances are about 2000 more than McGwire’s, and 3000 more is Ruth.
Bill,
I used to be a math student and some of the Homeruns that McGwire hit defied physics. Researchers came to conclusions that the ball was hit with super human strength. It wasn’t just how far it went, it had to do with the angles and the trajectory and all of that.
They had enough indicators, they just didn’t want to act on them.
Is A-Rod worthy? (shoulder shrugs). I hate the guy. If A-Rod is Worthy, than are McGwire, Barry Bonds, Sosa and all who either admitted or was convicted in the court of public opinion, worthy?