By Paul Gotham
Setting: It all comes down to this. Lucas Oil Stadium is the stage. Brad Stevens and his No. 5 seed Butler Bulldogs (33-4) do battle with Mike Krzyzewski and his No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils (34-5).
Plot: Horizon League meets the Atlantic Coast Conference for the national championship.
Sub-plot: In his third season of coaching Stevens seeks Butler’s first title. Krzyzewski has guided three Blue Devil teams to titles.
The Blue Devils will be the second No. 1 seed the Bulldogs have faced in the tournament. Butler’s Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack are both game-time decisions.
Flashback: Duke won the only meeting between the two schools, on Jan. 30, 2003. Dahntay Jones scored 25, and Shavlik Randolph added 24 off the bench as the Blue Devils won at Cameron, 80-60.
Butler is making its 10th NCAA Tournament appearance and first trip to the national final. This is Duke’s 34th appearance in the NCAA Tournament and 10th time in the championship game.
Foreshadowing: Fifty-one former Blue Devils have made their way to the NBA. Current alums include Shane Battier, Carlos Boozer, Elton Brand, Luol Deng, Chris Duhon, Mike Dunleavy, Gerald Henderson, Grant Hill, Dahntay Jones, J.J. Redick, and Shelden Williams. Butler is waiting on its first NBA guy.
Conflict: Butler has surrendered more than 60 points just once in their last 13 games. Duke averages 77 per outing, including 78 against West Virginia and Purdue.
Butler created 16 turnovers in their defeat of Michigan State. The Spartans scored zero transition points in the semi-final as the Bulldogs chose to not attack the offensive glass.
Butler’s best defense has been and will continue to be a slow, deliberate offense.
Gordon Hayward leads four Bulldogs in double digits. The silky smooth swing man provides versatility to the lineup. At 6′9″, Hayward can go inside and get work done. He averages almost nine boards a game and can finish in the paint. Hayward has also hit 47 3-pointers on the season. Stevens has called on Hayward to run the offense from time to time. With Howard on the bench Saturday, Hayward drew the assignment of stopping MSU’s Draymond Green.
Matt Howard adds almost 12 points and five rebounds. He is text-book type of player in the paint whose work could be a how-to video used at summer camp. His health will be important for Butler’s success.
Shelvin Mack leads the Bulldogs with 70 from behind the arc. Mack hits 39 percent from long range.
The only senior in the lineup, Willie Veasley, chips in 10 points and four rebounds.
Ronald Nored runs the point at just a touch under 2 : 1 assist to turnovers.
Zach Hahn comes off the bench and hits 4o.9 percent from long range.
Shawn Vanzant, Avery Jukes, and Andrew Smith will supply valuable minutes off the bench.
The emergence of Brian Zoubek and freshman Mason Plumlee gives Duke a well-rounded attack. Zoubek has grabbed double-digit rebounds in three of Duke’s tournament wins, including 10 in Saturday night’s triumph over West Virginia.
Make no mistake though, Butler must contend with Duke’s big three: Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler. The trio combine for 53 points and 13 rebounds per game.
Scheyer scores 18 a game to go with an assist to turnover ratio of 3:1. If Duke holds a late lead, Scheyer is deadly from the line – 190-216 (88.0).
Singler rebounded from a tough outing against Baylor by scoring 21 against the Mountaineers. The junior has 23 double-digit performances in Duke’s last 24 games.
Smith averages 17. The junior guard mixes a long-range game (59-148 from behind the arc) with a quick first step that allows him to get into the paint.
Lance Thomas scores slightly below five a game and grabs 4.9 rebounds.
Resolution: Butler has relied upon turnovers to create offense. Those chances will decrease against the experienced Duke back-court. Michigan State, Kansas State, and Syracuse looked uncomfortable having to run half-court offense for 40 minutes. Duke will not be so easily frustrated. The Blue Devils piled up 20 assists while hitting 29 field goals against West Virginia. Scheyer, Smith, and Singler know how to manufacture points. The Bulldogs will ride the wave of emotion, but the Blue Devils will have the last word. Duke brings home their fourth title.
Got any comments on the game? Post them here.
Dan says
I agree strongly with your last few lines. That analysis is right on. Duke does not mind a slowed down, half-court, scheme driven game. They have the experience, the guard play, and the coaching to win with that style. Butler slowing things down will be OK with the Blue Devils whose swarming defense loves to eat up defensive shot clocks. Duke will win unless Scheyer and Singler BOTH have terrible shooting days and someone catches extreme fire from behind the arc for Butler…
Wally says
Duke’s got to be the favorite … and they’ll win unless, as Casey points out, they play quite poorly. Duke does not beat themselves with dumb mistakes and even if they’re shooting poorly, their sudden offensive rebounding prowess may nonetheless carry them through. For Butler to win, they’ll really need to limit their TO’s AND shoot at least 50% from the field. A tall order. Plus their lone “big man” is hampered with concussion recovery. I expect Duke to win by double digits, but that’s also what I expected when New England was the favorite vs the G-men in the Super Bowl a couple years ago.
Casey says
Wally and Dan,
Great takes.
Wally – for Butler to win, who will play David Tyree and make the Helmet Catch?
Wally says
Norad, Butler’s very reluctant shooter, will bank in a running 3 pointer as time expires. A lucky, blind squirrel bucket for the win. No … correction … Norad’s shot is an airball … but Veasley swoops in and tip-jams it for the win … a la NC State & Jimmy V vs Houston’s Phi Slamma Jamma outfit. No … wait … one last premonition … Butler has 6 seconds left and they run the “swinging gate play” for … who else … Jimmy Chitwood, who swishes the long jumper as time runs out. We can always dream !!!
Wally says
Oh … and Shooter celebrates the improbable win with an O’Douls … given his “issues”.
Casey says
How FRIGGIN’ good is this Butler team?
Wally says
Shooter is so depressed, he’s fallen off the wagon … going for something with a little kick. Wow!!! Well … Butler ran the swinging gate for Jimmy Chitwood (Hayward), but he couldn’t make the fall away jumper, and then he had the running 3 pointer I talked about and misseditbythatmuch. Wow! Duke fans … tell me your hearts weren’t in your stomach as that last shot hit the backboard.
Butler just didn’t shoot well enough to pull it out … they were only at 35%, but they did a decent job taking care of the ball and that’s why it was close at the end. But gotta take your hats off to their grittiness … they were every bit Duke’s equal tonight, except on the scoreboard.
Congrats to Duke … they played their game … Singler was fantastic. Coach K is a class act and overall it’s CLASS program … well-deserved! Overall, what a great night for college basketball! The only way it coulda been better is if Butler happened to pull of a Hickory Huskers miracle at the end … for all the little schools who never got the chance.
Casey … you can start breathing again 😉
Casey says
I can honestly say the result of that game was not as important to me as was the way it was played. One of the talking heads (Jay Bilas?) put it best: Duke won a great game. If Hayward hits that shot, it was the greatest game. The game of basketball was the ultimate winner last night. I hope years from now we will look back at last night’s contest as a change for the better. Butler, with a starter who is 1st team All-ACADEMIC America, showed that playing the game intelligently can make a difference. On the other hand, I am working on my Coach K article.
Wally says
Butler should have run the picket fence instead of the swinging gate … I kept referencing the wrong play that Shooter drew up !
Seriously, I agree with you, Casey. The INTENSITY with which that game was played … by all players on both sides … really made it special. You could tell they all wanted to win so badly. Too bad someone had to lose … actually, Butler didn’t lose the game … they just didn’t win. Yes, the game itself was the ultimate winner as you say.
Butler returns everyone except Veasley next season! I expect they’ll make another run at it. Still, to expect any team to reappear in the title game is unrealistic or unfair … it takes a lot of luck to make it that far in any season. But these kids have a great coach and good heads on their shoulders, so if nothing else, they should have a terrific season in 2011. None of us should be surprised to see them in the Elite 8 again.
Next up: UConn women going after another title and their 78th win in a row! Can Stanford stay toe to toe with them like Butler did with Duke last night? Hope so.
Smitty says
I agree with Casey – college basketball was the winner last night. The intensity and overall play by both teams made the game extremely enjoyable to watch. While I wanted Duke to win, I found myself towards the end of the game not caring WHO won.
I was listening to a radio show this afternoon, where the talk show host laughed at the notion that people were saying that this was the greatest game ever. While I agree that was a stretch, what troubled me was his next comment. ” It is not like North Carolina/Georgetown who had 7 future NBA players on it.” Is that what it is about? How many NBA players are on the floor for it to be a great game? Give me a break.
Wally says
Maybe not 7, but there may have been 5 NBA players on the floor last night But … right, Smitty … who cares about how many NBA players???
Had one of Hayward’s two final shots gone in, this game would be right behind Miracle On Ice as one of the most memorable/greatest games ever!!! As it is, it’s one of the top 5 college hoops games I’ve EVER watched … for a variety of reasons … and I think that’s saying something.
Smitty says
Interesting.. there is almost nothing on ESPN.com’s front page about last night’s game. Did we turn the page that fast?
Does Hayward come back for another season? How about Singler? Personally I think both should come back for another year, but I am not the expert.
Wally says
Hayward … yes, he should come back for another season … he’s only a sophomore. If he can get stronger in the weight room, he’ll be a lottery pick after next season.
I thought Singler is already a senior …. Casey?
Wally says
Oliver Purnell (Clemson) is taking the DePaul job. That’s good … score for DePaul. Still don’t understand why they didn’t get someone with Chicago ties … we talked about Mark Aguirre a few weeks ago. They interviewed Reggie Theus. Isiah Thomas is a screwball, but he’s from Chicago.
Well … if Purnell can win 20+ games just about every year at a football school, I think he’ll do very well at DePaul. They still have other major issues to solve though … like modern facilities and a stadium close to campus.
Casey says
Wally probably has it right when he called Monday’s game the most “memorable” if Hayward hits that shot. Nonetheless, great COLLEGE game.
Singler is in his third year of college, but due to graduate in May. He could make like Matt Leinart and take dance classes for another year. The threat of an NBA lockout might cause a few guys to jump.
I am always prone to saying if a guy has another year of college he should take advantage of it and stay on campus. That’s just me, and there are few who agree. Of course, quite a few thought Kenyon Martin made a mistake when he stayed and broke his leg. His bank account seems to be doing pretty well.
I love watching Hayward play. If Duke can hold him to two field goals, imagine what would happen in the Association. He needs to work on his first step and get quicker of the dribble.
Rey says
I was surprised Butler did as well as they did in the semis and finals with Howard in so much foul trouble and not really providing much of an offensive output. At one point last in the second half, he started setting more ball screens and Duke/Zoubeck faultered defensively on some of these. In his previous minutes, he wanted to sit on the low block and challenge Zoubeck but mostly kicked back out. I thought they could have used Howard out on the perimeter more to try and draw Z away and catch the Blue Devils blowing an assignment on ball screens. Same thing kind of occured against Sparty.