Which Team From The South Will Try On The Slipper?

By Paul Gotham

It is kind of hard to imagine that a region with three Big East teams (Villanova, Louisville, and Notre Dame) and two teams from the Big 12 (Baylor and Texas A&M) could have the makings for a Cinderella run. Especially, when one looks at the fact that Baylor and A&M have the chance to play third and fourth round games in Houston.  Still, Cinderella might exist in the South.

Consider this. The South region has a two seed that has lost six of its last ten. A three seed that hasn’t won a tournament game since 1950. The four seed scored 11 points in a half last weekend.

If ever there was a region set up for a lower seed to make a run, this is it. The question is which team.

On the other hand, this region might play out well for a run by the one seed – Duke.

Maybe, the first question should be what is a Cinderella? Some might say North Carolina State in 1983. The Wolfpack was a six seed. They beat Phi Slamma Jamma, but NC State is not exactly a small school.

Villanova in 1985 was a great story. They were an eight seed who beat Patrick Ewing and the Georgetown. Villanova is not a big school, but there is a rich basketball history there.

Recently, George Mason captured the hearts of many with their magical run to the Final Four in 2006.

Two years ago, tiny Davidson advanced to the Elite Eight. They fell one Stephen Curry trifecta short of beating eventual champ Kansas.

What exactly defines a Cinderella, and can it be found in the South Region?

Before searching for that team, it might be a better idea to discuss why the opportunity is there.

Suddenly, Villanova can’t get out of its own way. The Wildcats are playing like they are doing a penance. They give their opponents plenty of charity. Those personal fouls are contributing to their sliding fortunes.

Baylor as a three seed is a little confusing. If there are four regions, and a team gets a three seed, would that not suggest the team should be ranked somewhere around say 12th in the country. Not that the polls are the be all and end all or anything. It’s just that Baylor has never been any higher than 17 this year. And rightly so. The Bears have made five all-time appearances in The Dance. They lost to Purdue in the first round of the 2008 tournament.

The loss of Robbie Hummel was devastating to Purdue’s chances. That goes without saying. At one time, the Boilermakers looked like a Final Four team. Thing is, they still have enough talent – E’Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson, and Chris Kramer – to carry them. Is 20 points in a half too much to ask for? What’s worse? Minnesota, the team that held them to 11 in a half, looked absolutely feeble the next day.

Now, here’s the other side of it. Siena is 2-2 in the last two NCAA Tournaments. The Saints led the Louisville Cardinals with less than ten minutes remaining in last year’s second round match up. Siena returns four starters from that team. Ronald Moore leads the nation in assists per game. Alex Franklin averages 16 points and eight rebounds. The Saints have four guys averaging double figures. They seamlessly switch defenses and create lay ups. The Saints are not bothered by playing on the road. They do not depend upon the three, but Clarence Jackson has hit 71 from behind the arc this year.

Purdue is in trouble.

The Boilermakers are not the only high seed in trouble.

Villanova is staring at a second round game with Richmond. The Spiders play a frustrating match up zone defense. They limit opponents to 62 points. Their field goal percentage and three-point percentage defense ranks in the nation’s top 20. Worse yet for Villanova? Richmond has great guards – Kevin Anderson was the A10 player-of-the-year and David Gonzalvez is true grit. They will stifle Villanova on the perimeter.

Then there is Notre Dame. Maybe, Purdue should study Irish game film. Since ND’s leading scorer and former Big East Player of the Year, Luke Harangody, has been injured, the Irish have played their best hoops. Now, Mike Brey and crew needs to figure out how to make the best use Harangody since he has returned.

By the way, Richmond and St. Mary’s play Thursday at 3pm. Make sure you tune in to see two contrasting styles. The Gaels score almost 80 a game. They have four players who have taken more than 100 three-point attempts – Mickey McConnell (67/ 130), Matthew Dellavedova (70/ 169), Ben Allen (43/ 110), and Clint Steindl (48/ 128). St. Mary’s has just five losses this year – by two to Vanderbilt, 11 to USC, by seven and 19 to Gonzaga, and by five to Portland. Which Gaels’ team will show up? The one that bombed Gonzaga? Or the one that was bombed by Gonzaga?

Match ups to die for: Notre Dame and anyone is intriguing. Notre Dame and Richmond? Wow! The Irish have learned to play with patience of late. Richmond forces teams to play uncomfortably patient basketball. Tory Jackson versus Kevin Anderson? That is a battle of two cagey point guards. They both pick their spots. They both know how to get the ball in the hands of the players who can where they can score.

Duke and Louisville could meet in the second round. Coach K and Rick Pitino – the last time they met, their teams staged arguably the greatest game in NCAA Tournament history. Maybe, Pitino can get Mashburn out of retirement.

Players to watch: Mason Plumlee (Duke) – everyone knows about Scheyer, Singler, and Smith. The younger Plumlee’s confidence is growing every game.

Justin Harper (Richmond) – he is a 6’10” junior who is active on the glass, and he can slash. Think of it. He is 6’10” and he can slash. The prospects are scary.

Isaiah Armwood (Villanova) – the freshman has shown flashes all year. The Wildcats might not be around long, so catch him while you can.

Tory Jackson (Notre Dame) – a little sad to see his career come to an end. Jackson has plenty of unrealized potential still.

Ryan Rossiter (Siena) – for the old timers out there – think Jack Sikma. It’s not pretty, but he gets the job done. Rossiter has great footwork, and he is a savvy player.

What to look for: If Villanova is the weakest two seed in the tournament, then Richmond is the strongest seven seed. Richmond, Siena, Notre Dame, and Duke in the Sweet 16 – there is very real possibility.  From there it is anyone’s guess.