By Paul Gotham
Who says the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn’t have a sense of humor. Judging by the pairings in the West Region, Dan Guerrero and his gang shared a few laughs while putting together the bracket.
Consider this – how many at-large teams have 12 losses AND made it to the tournament in front of the team they most recently fell to?
The answer is two: Florida and Louisville.
Here’s the difference. Louisville fell in the Big East tournament to Cincinnati. The Bearcats finished the season 18-15. Can anyone make a case for Cincy in The Dance? Not to mention the Cardinals handed Syracuse half (2) of their losses.
The Gators on the other hand? Billy Donovan’s squad lost to Mississippi State. All the Bulldogs did was advance to the SEC tournament final where after 39 minutes and 55 seconds they had a three-point lead on the Kentucky Wildcats.
What happened next was nothing short of the planets aligning.
Down three, Eric Bledsoe hits the front end of a one and one. The freshman then gently puts his next shot off (who said the Wildcats didn’t want to win the SEC) the back of the iron. The ball bounces high and then (and all of this happened in 4.9 seconds) DeMarcus Cousins tipped the ball. John Wall grabbed the ball. John Wall dribbled. John Wall shot…an air ball. Cousins alertly noticed it was short. He grabbed the ball and scored – all before the horn. Kentucky went on to win in overtime. For their parting gift, Mississippi State got the NIT.
Florida got BYU. The Gators haven’t been IN the tournament since they last WON the tournament in 2007. It’s as if the committee said: okay, we’ll let you back in, but there is a price to pay. We are going to give you BYU in the first round. The Cougars haven’t won a tournament game since 1993. That looks good on the surface. The problem is BYU thrives on what Florida isn’t exactly very good at.
Statistically, Florida has two strengths: ball control and defense. That is if you want to call them strengths. Florida commits just 12 turnovers per game which ranks them somewhere around 50th in the nation. Other than personal fouls per game, that is the Gators best statistical area. To go with the low turnovers, they are in the top 100 of assists. Combining the two areas, Florida ranks 49th in the assist to turnover ratio.
Those are not exactly stellar numbers, but they are what the Gators have to hang their hats on.
Florida has one more statistical category in the top 100 – scoring defense. Specifically, the Gators are 76th in the nation for three-point percentage defense. Keep one thing in mind. Florida plays in the SEC. The SEC does NOT have one team in the top 60 in three-point percentage.
Along comes BYU. The Cougars are number three in the nation in which category? You guessed it: three-point field-goal percentage.
It is as if the committee showed the Gators some mercy by inviting them to the party only to make them responsible for serving the hors d’ouevres.
At least all of the joke is not on Donovan’s crew. The Cougars are number one in the nation from the charity stripe (78.6). The Gators only commit 14.5 fouls per contest. BYU’s strength at the line might not get a chance.
The humor in the West does not stop there.
Gonzaga played the final of the West Coast Conference tournament as if they were in a trance, losing 81-62 to St. Mary’s. The game was not even that close. How is it possible that the Bulldogs could look mildly complacent? Their reward is a date with the Florida State Seminoles – the number one defensive team in the country.
Gonzaga’s offense is ranked 26th in the country. They score over 77 points a game. They hit almost 50 percent of their shots (6th in the country). The Bulldogs will get a chance to see how good their offense actually is. The Seminoles limit their opponents to 37 percent from the field and 68 points per game.
The committee did not do Butler any favors. The Bulldogs, winners of their last 20, drew UTEP. The Miners front line is Butler’s antithesis. Matt Howard, Gordon Hayward, Willie Veasley are finesse. UTEP’s forwards play with brute force. Derrick Caracter, Arnett Moultrie, and Jeremy Williams will try to dictate a physical match.
Those twists are fine. For Syracuse, their first round match-up is no laughing matter.
A sixteen seed versus a one seed. It is supposed to be a reward for the one seed. The only problem is the opponent. Five years ago, the Orange were a four seed when they lost in the first round. The thirteen seed Syracuse played? None other than the Vermont Catamounts. It doesn’t matter though. All the faces have changed. Sixteen beating a one seed? It can’t happen. Can it?
Match-ups to die for: Pittsburgh and Xavier each need a win for a rematch of last year’s Regional semi-final. The Panthers trying to put the clamps on Jordan Crawford could make for great theater.
Syracuse and Gonzaga could meet in the second round. Anyone want to post an over-under for that game? Gonzaga’s three-point barrage going up against SU’s zone. Not to mention the fun ‘n’ gun possibility in transition for both squads.
Syracuse versus Florida State could be rather bruising. Syracuse won’t get much in transition. Solomon Alibi will need to stay out of foul trouble against the Syracuse front line.
The chance of Syracuse tangling with Kansas State is tantalizing. Jamar Samuels, Curtis Kelly, and Dominique inside against Rick Jackson, Arinze Onuaku (if healthy), and Kris Joseph would be a battle to remember.
Players to watch: Remember the name Marqus Blakely. The list of Vermont Catamounts in the NBA is short. In fact, there is not a list. Blakely might start a list. Syracuse and Vermont play Friday night at 9:40. Tune in. It will probably be the only chance you get to see this kid.
UTEP’s Randy Culpepper is a gamer. He knows no fear. The mistakes he makes, are born out of aggression.
Matt Bouldin (Gonzaga) – he is pure basketball at its best.
Minnesota has a kid named Iverson. No relation.
Jimmer Fredette (BYU) averages almost 22 a game. He is from Glens Falls, New York.
Solomon Alabi (FSU) might be the best defensive big man in the country.
Jordan Crawford (XU) – what can I say that I haven’t already?
Jacob Pullen (KSU) – we might see a few beards in the crowd.
Almost forgot Rautins and Johnson. Oh wait, SU fans think there is a Johnson conspiracy or something.
What to look for: Onuaku’s health will play a role. He is not supposed to be back this weekend. The Orange could get through the first two without their center. After that, things could get dicey.
Frank Martin’s Wildcats do not beat themselves, but these guys have very little experience winning tournament games.
It would be nice to say this is Butler’s breakthrough year. Not in this region. Thankfully, Howard, Hayward, and Mack could return next year.
Sure, Pittsburgh is a threat. But if Jamie Dixon could not get to the Final Four with Levance Fields, DeJuan Blair, and Sam Young, how can he with this roster?
Have I mentioned Xavier?
What is everyone looking forward to from the West?
Dam, I should have you pick my tournament !! You know too much about all the teams !! That Derrick Caracter was a throwaway from Louisville. he was improving but got into trouble. I think he sat out for at least a year before transferring.
Joe – great call on Caracter transferring from Louisville.
Don’t hand in your brackets too early. I will go through the rest of the regions.