1. Kansas
2. Kentucky
3. Purdue
4. Duke
5. Syracuse
6. Kansas State
7. New Mexico
8. Villanova
9. Butler
10. Ohio State
11. West Virginia
12. Gonzaga
13. Maryland
14. UTEP
15. Xavier
16. Michigan State
17. Georgetown
18. Pittsburgh
19. BYU
20. Temple
21. Richmond
22. Vanderbilt
23. Tennessee
24. Texas
25. UAB
Others receiving consideration: Dayton, Memphis, Rhode Island, California, UNLV, Texas A&M, Cornell, Siena, Charlotte, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Wisconsin, Northern Iowa, Wake Forest, Baylor, Utah State
Pitt needs to be much higher. They are top 10. New Mexico and and Butler should be out of the top 10. They would both get beaten by the top 5 or so teams in the Big East including ‘Cuse, G’Town, West Virginia, ‘Nova, and Pitt.
Come tournament time, I think Cornell and Wisconsin will do some damage.
I also think Ohio State will go deeper than Purdue and Michigan State. Maybe I should rephrase that and say that I think that they are better than those 2 teams.
After looking at those top 25, there are some very mediocre teams that are on that list. I’m not blaming you, I just don’t think that 15 of them have a chance at the national championship.
My title contenders include…Kansas, Kentucky, Cuse, Ohio State, ‘Nova, Pitt, Georgetown, and maybe Purdue, Duke.
I can’t see West Virginia, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Maryland, UTEP, Xavier being crowned National Champion. I don’t think those teams are good enough to win that many quality games in the tournament.
With all of that said, I do appreciate your rankings and know that time has been well spent in developing that list.
Something tells me that Kentucky will not make it to the Final 4. The culprit will be their subpar free-throw shooting … the achilles heel of many Calipari teams.
This will be an exciting tournament … I don’t see a “dominant four” … it’s wide open and I think any one of a dozen teams could win it. Dan … your list is a good start. I do think WVU, Gonzaga, Xavier, Pitt, could go deep into it.
Dan,
Thanks for the read and comments. In-season polls are nothing more than fodder for discussion. Seems as if that has worked. Look at it this way – I have Duke ranked fourth. That is, I see them as the fourth best team in the country over the last week. I would be surprised if the Blue Devils advanced to the Final Four. Their ceiling seems to be Elite Eight with a Sweet Sixteen finish probably being more realistic.
I see the pendulum has swung back. Seems like a couple of months ago you were seeing a limited number of teams that could win the title. Then you said the tournament was wide open. Now you are back to just a few teams. 🙂
I did this list without looking at the other polls. The AP ranked Pitt 12th, and the coaches poll had the Panthers at 16th. Neither of those polls had Pitt ranked in the top ten. They had the Panthers higher than me which means they reacted more to Pitt’s win over Villanova. The Panthers win over Vill is a good example. The Panthers match up well with the Wildcats. Pitt had 18 offensive rebounds. They only made 20 field goals. They won at home. I’m not sure that warrants a six-loss team bounding into the top ten.
Mediocre is a relative term. Isn’t it? I know this is kinda obvious, but only four teams get to the final and there is only one team that wins the national championship. The rest of the teams in the sweet sixteen are good teams…not mediocre.
A couple of things – Butler beat Ohio State earlier this year. Yeah, Turner was not in the lineup. Nonetheless, the Bulldogs won by 8. By the way – Evan Turner scored 25, yet the Buckeyes lost to Siena in the opening round of last year’s tournament.
New Mexico has beaten Texas A&M and Texas Tech. Not exactly Syracuse, Villanova, and Georgetown, but you might be surprised if the Orange, Hoyas, and Wildcats had to play AT Butler and/or New Mexico. Keep in mind, Villanova lost AT Temple earlier this year. Syracuse needed some luck to win AT DePaul. Georgetown lost to Old Dominion. Losses happen.
Another way to look at this – put Kentucky in the Big East. My guess is they would have 4 losses by now. Should we assume those losses and drop the Wildcats.
All that being said, I am surprised by Michigan State so far. I expected more out of the Spartans.
Can you please explain your reasoning for having Duke ahead of Syracuse?
Duke is 23-4, and 5-2 vs ranked teams, their best win being probably Georgia tech, or a 13th ranked UCONN. including a loss NC state(15-13).
Syracuse is 25-2 and are a staggering 6-0 vs ranked teams. Theyre best win is probably 9th ranked WVU, or GTOWN twice. Losses to only Pitt(21-6), and Louisville(18-9), Not to mention they play in a much tougher conference.
Mark —
Great question. Casey may give a reason which sounds logical and reasonable. Don’t buy it …. the real truth is this … DUKE BASKETBALL IS HIS FAVORITE TEAM in any sport !!!!
Thought you should know if you didn’t already …
Mark – HELMET STICKER! Way to make an argument and back it up (claim and evidence).
Yes, Wally is correct. My allegiances fall with Duke.
I have shared my analysis of Syracuse: https://pickinsplinters.com/2010/01/29/syracuse-orange-addition-by-subtraction/
See my comments above about in-season polls. Don’t put too much stock in these things. They make for conversation. Isn’t it funny how a post like this that consists of less than 50 words can generate more comments than my Syracuse article linked above.
As far as Duke at 4 and Syracuse at 5 – two weeks ago I had Syracuse at 2. They promptly won a VERY controversial game over UConn – that would not have happened if Calhoun was on the sideline. And that game was at the Dome. Then ‘Cuse lost to Louisville. By process of elimination I bumped Duke ahead of Syracuse. The Blue Devils have done nothing to make me drop them since then. Also, Syracuse wasn’t stellar holding on for dear life versus Georgetown.
By the way – doing these polls are not as easy as they look. It’s one thing when you are part of a group, like the AP, doing this. You can hide behind the numbers.
You make great points. Keep doing the work.