Xavier-Dayton: Tale of the Tape

By Paul Gotham

Setting: The Blackburn / McCafferty Trophy is on the line at the University of Dayton Arena  when Chris Mack takes his Xavier Musketeers (16-6 / 8-1) north on I-75 for a tilt with Brian Gregory and his Dayton Flyers (15-6/ 4-3) . The Trophy honors former Dayton coach Tom Blackburn (1947-64) and Xavier coach and athletic director, Jim McCafferty (1957-63).

Plot: There will be a plenty of energy on campus and plenty more on the court. Ten Flyers play 12 minutes or more per game. Eight Musketeers log at least 16 minutes per contest. Coaches Mack and Gregory take pride in their benches.

Sub-plot: Xavier sits atop the A-10 standings with Charlotte and Temple at 7-1 ready to pounce on the next chance. With four conference wins and three losses, Dayton is in the sixth place.

Xavier brings a four-game win streak into Saturday’s match-up. The X-Men are in the middle of three consecutive road games. Dayton beat St. Bonaventure the last time out, but the Flyers have split their last six games.

Flashback: Dante Jackson had a career-high 19 points. Jordan Crawford and Terrell Holloway contributed 15 and 16 a piece as the Muskies beat UD on January 16th, 78-74. Dayton leads the series 81-62. Xavier has taken eight of the last nine meetings.

Xavier has earned 20 NCAA Tournament berths, including last year’s Sweet Sixteen run and Elite Eight showings in 2008 and 2004. Dayton’s resume includes 14 appearances in ‘The Dance.’ Brian Gregory took the Flyers to the tourney last year and in 2004.

Foreshadowing: Sixteen Flyers have gone on to enjoy careers in the NBA, including Jim Paxson Jr. and Johnny Davis.  Sixteen Musketeers have played in the Association, including current stars Derrick Brown, James Posey , and David West.

Conflict: Xavier ranks twentieth in the nation scoring 80 points per game. Dayton holds opponents to 62 points. The Flyers have out-rebounded opponents by 9.9 over the last eight games. Dayton is 13-3 when winning the war on the boards. Xavier’s rebound margin is 3.7.

Xavier’s attack begins with Terrell Holloway. The sophomore point guard has an assist to turnover ratio of 2.4:1 while putting 11 points per game. Holloway hit 85.6 percent from the free throw line.

Jordan Crawford leads the way with 19.5 points. The sophomore transfer adds 4.8 rebounds and hits 41.2 percent from behind the arc.

Inside, Jason Love and Jamel McLean make it happen. Love grabs 8.5 rebounds to go with 11.1 points. The senior’s best weapon is his jump hook. When on, the shot is nearly indefensible.

McLean logged a double-double last time out against UMass. The junior scored 14 and grabbed 11 boards as the X-Men to a 87-79 road win. McLean is a ball-getter. Opponents need to keep track of him at all times when the ball goes in the air.

Dante Jackson hits 43.4 percent from behind the arc. Jackson hit five of eight from long range last time out against the Flyers.

Brad Redford, Mark Lyons, and Kenny Frease log valuable minutes off the bench. The trio contributes 20 points and eight rebounds. Redford is deadly from long range hitting with 45.2 percent accuracy. Lyons has become a defensive stopper on the perimeter, and Frease provides valuable minutes in the paint.

Chris Wright leads the Flyers. The Wooden Award candidate heads a balanced attack with 14 points and seven rebounds. Wright can score from the inside and from the outside. McLean and Jackson will have their hands full trying to slow down the junior.

Chris Johnson is capable of exploding. The sophomore had 26 points and 20 rebounds against Duquesne last month. The 6’6″ forward averages 12 points and 7.6 rebounds.

Rob Lowery and London Warren are Dayton’s two-headed point guard monster. The duo nearly split time (Lowery 18.9 minutes, Warren 20.4) for the Flyers. The pair combine for two steals a game and an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8:1.

Paul Williams and Kurt Huelsman contribute nine points and five rebounds.

The Flyers attack is about depth and balance. Ten players log double digit minutes per game.

Marcus Johnson add eight points and three rebouns off the bench.

Resolution: Urgency reigns in the Flyer locker room. Pre-season polls pegged Dayton for back-to-back trips to the NCAA Tournaments. And why not? The Flyers returned all their starters from last year’s club that beat West Virginia in the opening round of ‘The Dance.’ One year ago, the Flyers were 21-2. Dayton’s last four losses have been by a combined eight points. Last year, UD topped Xavier at home 71-58.

Chris Mack will use last year’s loss as motivation. Crawford has become a special player, and the Flyers will struggle to contain him. Earlier in the year, Crawford wasted numerous possession with ill-advised shots. The shooting guard has grown from the experience.

Dayton uses more players, but Xavier brings more talent. The Muskies drop the Flyers in a game decided in the final moments.

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