By Mark ‘Wally’ Watzke
Maybe you’ve seen the polls that came out yesterday … and/or maybe you happened to hear Colin Cowherd dissing the Irish today (Monday) on ESPN Radio. Now, before I go on my rant, please realize that I’m NOT saying that ND belongs in the Top 15. What I am saying is that they almost assuredly belong in the Top 25 … that’s based on being 4-1 and who they’ve played thus far. For whatever reason, there is a poll bias against Notre Dame … and it’s not the type that over-rates them. Instead, it’s a bias that clearly under-rates them. Here are the facts:
– At 4-1, ND is essentially ranked #28 in the latest ESPN Coaches poll. They have beaten Nevada, Michigan State, Purdue and Washington. They lost in a very close game on the road at Michigan. 3 home games, two road games.
– At 3-1, Oklahoma State is ranked #13. They have played 4 homes games: they have beaten Georgia, Rice and Grambling. They lost to Houston by 10 at home. Houston was not ranked.
– At 3-1, Ole Miss is #16. They have trounced these “powers”: Memphis, Southeastern Louisiana, and Vanderbilt while losing 16-10 to South Carolina.
– 4-1 Oregon is #17. They lost to Boise State 19-8. Barely beat Purdue at home, beat Utah , Cal and Wash State all at home. Note that Cal has looked like absolute dog**** lately.
– Then there’s 4-1 BYU at #20. A squeaky win vs Bradford-less Oklahoma 14-13, and their other victims include “powers” Tulane, Colorado state and Utah State. But they were killed by a mediocre Florida State team AT HOME 52-28!!!
– 2-2 Oklahoma is next in line. They’ve played without Bradford … but not well. Losses to BYU and Miami. Wins at home vs Idaho State and Tulsa. They have two losses in 4 games and haven’t beaten anybody in the Top 60 yet.
– 3-1 Nebraska is #22. Their only “tough game” was a loss to VaTech, but look at how they’ve beaten the snot out of these powder puffs at home: Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette.
I could go on and on. Anyway, I think I can objectively make the case that ND’s 4-1 record against their schedule is AT LEAST the equal or BETTER than the performance to date of the teams mentioned above. Sure, ND could stink up the joint vs USC in two weeks and this observation and argument is moot. But I sure get the feeling that a win over #7 USC will somehow be discounted as tainted, lucky, an aberration, etc. and ND might climb all the way up to ….. #23! Wow.
My only point is this … if there were a shred of objectivity in these polls, right now the Irish deserve to be somewhere #15-22. Not sure what it is … maybe folks resent the “arrogant Weis”, the NBC contract, who knows? But when the Irish win, it’s perceived as luck and when they lose it’s because they just stink and don’t have the horses. Well … all I know is that USC lost to Washington two weeks ago … a UW team that gave LSU all it could handle. Does USC stink? Nope … they’re #7 in the country. Oh … Notre Dame beat Washington? Must’ve been all luck!
Out.
Waly, see my post on the game re-cap. I’m not sold on us being ranked…yet!
Sometimes ya get help when you don’t even ask for it. Today, Blue and Gold Illustrated ran an article on essentially the same topic but backed it up with some computer analysis. Go to blueandgold.com and look for the article by Ryan O’Leary called “Eye of the Beholder”.
https://www.blueandgold.com/content/?aid=7940
Wally, I’m feeling like a disloyal turncoat. Fact is, as I have stated often on the Pine, I am just plain mad at Unweis. I have numerous superstitions that I honor for ND football. This season, I told my family all superstitions are suspended. Unweis is going to have to earn his wins and his ranking. Someone’s earning those wins, though I am not sure it is him. ND may be in the top 10 in player talent (top 3 offensively when healthy, top 50 defensively), but their coaching ranks so far down the line that it over-balances the player talent in the wrong direction. I have yet to see a significant step toward improvement in the coaching staff are they even top 100?). Hence, I would not rank them in the top 25…yet.
Pete —
I agree that the Irish have a lot to prove (and hopefully, they’ll begin in earnest on Oct 17), but my point in this post is that they’ve actually proven more up to this point than a lot of teams ahead of them in the rankings. Those teams I mentioned have more to prove. Take a look at the BGI article.
Again, I’m not even saying ND is a “very good” team … they don’t belong in Top 15 … I hope they prove eventually that they do. But as of right now, they should undoubtedly be in Top 25.
Does it REALLY matter if you’re 28th or 17th right now??? Well … yes and no. First the “no” … it doesn’t matter cuz there’s 8-9 weeks of regular season football left and some damned good teams to play (e.g. USC and maybe Stanford and Pitt) to prove a point. And now why it DOES matter … because if my team really does objectively belong in front of OK State or BYU right now and let’s just say everybody wins out (I know, a dream), I don’t want my team ranked behind these guys in the end simply because they were incorrectly in front of me to begin with. Could cost me a BCS bowl appearance.
Let’s face it … it’s POSSIBLE the Irish could finish at 10-2 and are in the discussion for a BCS bowl. Well … a BCS bowl ain’t gonna happen if they’re buried at #16 in the rankings when objectively they should be at #10.
( and right now Crash is mumbling to himself: “I know who that 2nd loss is gonna be to !!!”)
Anyway … I’m gonna do handsprings and backflips if ND finishes 10-2 cuz I honestly believe they’re no better than 9-3 … cuz the defense is mediocre right now.
Pete —
I suppose we ought to offer Weis some small degree of credit for how the offense has performed without Floyd and with Clausen and Allen banged up. Please … Just a small token of appreciation for Unweis 😉
Actually Wally, Unweis poor coaching is making me a fan again. I LOVE Cardiac Finishes. ND football has become exciting again, even if I don’t believe it is yet good. Your points re: what others have proven is well stated and well taken. I get caught up in what ND has proved or not proved. I will grant that ND has done well with the injuries and issues with which they are dealing. I am still a bit reluctant to give too much credit to Unweis for that, but I suppose he IS the one who started making Tate a playmaker instead of just a receiver and he has gotten the right players on the field for most situations. All right… small token of appreciation!
I agree with Wally (egad! Did I just say that?) ND is not a great team, but they are better than others in the top 25.
It’s too bad their poor defense will keep them from winning a championship.
Casey! Welcome to the fraternity of the thousands of people who agree with me! I never thought this day would come … You should be proud!
By the way … it’s not just ND’s poor defense keeping ’em out of the title game … their O-line is also not championship caliber, nor is their kick coverage. Their offense is Top 10 … would be Top 5 with Floyd healthy. Defense and kick coverage are around 40ish.
If ND had a consistent defense, it would take the pressure off their kicking game and O-line. Defense has that ability. A good defense gives every other aspect of the game a chance to work.
I’m not taking that bait 😉 Nice try though.
Where is the bait?
Thought you were trying to get me back into the debate on what wins chan’ships … offense or defense. Of course, my offical response is “balanced excellence in both”.
You are doing a pretty good job of getting yourself back into the discussion.
🙂