Make your BCS bowl plans now, Fighting Irish fans!!! According to Blue & Gold Illustrated (BGI), Notre Dame will finish the regular season at 11-1 and head to one of the big BCS bowl games in January. 11-1?!?!? Maybe they’ll play in the National Title game!!! Yahooo!!!!!
Wait
… what? You’re wondering how in the name of St. Charles the Irish could be 11-1 in 2009 after shlepping their way to a pathetic 7-6 record last season? (Hey … didn’t you watch ND bludgeon Hawaii in the bowl game last December????) Well, the smart folks (?) at BGI can tell you exactly how it’s gonna play out. Just recently, they completed an in depth “crystal ball” analysis of each game culminating in a prediction, just like they do a few days before each game during the season. Here are the predicted scores and outcome of each ’09 game, plus ND’s cumulative W-L record in parentheses and “H” indicating home games:
| ND 31 Nevada 17 (1-0) H |
| ND 37 Michigan 17 (2-0) |
| ND 27 Mich State 13 (3-0) H |
| ND 45 Purdue 14 (4-0) |
| ND 41 Washington 7 (5-0) H |
| USC 27 ND 24 (5-1) H |
| ND 27 Boston College 10 (6-1) H |
| ND 35 Wash State 13 (7-1) |
| ND 38 Navy 14 (8-1) H |
| ND 27 Pitt 17 (9-1) |
| ND 42 UConn 16 (10-1) H |
| ND 24 Stanford 20 (11-1) |
| Average score: ND 33 Opponents 15 |
Wow … I can barely utter the words “ELEVEN & ONE” ! How is this possible?? Well, for starters, BGI has the Irish scoring comfortable double digit victories in each of their first 5 games leading into the showdown with SoCal after a bye week. That’s monumental in and of itself given that ND hasn’t swept the two Michigan schools since 2004. Another thing that really sticks out is that, according to BGI, ND’s defense will yield 21+ points only once (vs USC) and a season average of only 15.4 ppg !!!! ND yielded 22 ppg in 2008, so BGI projects a TD per game improvement. Hmmmmmm.
Moving to the offensive side of the ball, BGI predicts even more improvement. They say the Irish will average 33 ppg … almost 9 points better than their 24.7 mark in ’08. Really????
Okay, so taking a step back from this, what are the “experts” seeing? Afterall, this is a 29 year old, unaffiliated publication essentially dedicated to the study of ND/college football … so they should “know their stuff”. You might be tempted to accuse them of homerism, but they’ve been fighting those allegations for years and I’ve definitely detected a more unbiased viewpoint during the past decade or so. So how does BGI explain a 2 TD improvement in scoring margin versus ’08 … and a stellar W-L record??? It goes something like this:
— Three years of terrific recruiting is going to finally pay off with a junior-dominated team that is now seasoned and mature enough to win the close losses/giveaways suffered in ’08. On offense, ND will open the season with a starting lineup that features 11 players with at least a season of experience as a starter. Most agree that the offense will be borderline prolific this year; the Hawaii bowl game is fueling some of that fire. And BGI thinks we’ll finally see a dominant running game. If that’s true …. Amen!!! (But our guys couldn’t block a chair most of last season).
— Many talented freshman & sophomores logged good playing time in ’08 and will be major contributors as sophs and juniors this season.
— a VERY favorable schedule. Michigan suffered graduation and defection hits on both sides of the ball and is still rebuilding the O in Rich-Rod fashion; MSU is also weakened in key areas by graduation; Purdue, Washington and WSU are quite pathetic and BC is supposed to be pretty weak this year. The biggest challenges may come in road games at Pitt & Stanford, plus of course the home tilt with SoCal. Anyway, the schedule might be the biggest difference-maker this year.
— BGI thinks we’re gonna see a shut-down defense this year … mostly due to Jon Tenuta taking over the defensive play-calling and a very deep and talented secondary. The front seven have a lot of potential, but collectively they lack experience. Maybe … just maybe … the defense will be the beneficiary of a more effective, grind it out, Lou-style offense (e.g. with a real running game). But, remember, our guys couldn’t block a stationary sled most of ’08. Does 9-10 months make that much of a difference???
But 11-1?!?!? Sure, as a big ND fan, I really hope BGI is on the money. But I’m not going there. Like many, I’m very wary of the coaching staff … somehow, they’ll muck it all up. I still recall the nightmarish Syracuse game last year and the annual pasting by USC. Sure, the Hawaii game was the polar opposite … but I’m not gonna weigh the bowl game any heavier than the November debacles. This coaching staff can definitely recruit, but thus far they have failed to fully develop players and form a team with character that really sticks together and pulls eachother up. What’s gonna happen ON THE FIELD when ND fumbles twice deep in its own territory and trails Nevada by 10 early in the 3rd quarter??? That’s what I’m waiting to see. In the past few seasons, we’d crater … will it be any different starting now???
Despite BGI’s dreamy crystal ball simulation yielding an 11-1 miracle, I’m sticking to my guns. This ND fan predicts a 9-3 finish, with an outside chance of falling on either side …. either 8-4 or hopefully 10-2. Anything less than 9-3 will cost Charlie his job … unless we’re 8-4 with a whole lot of close, bad luck losses (e.g. the ball explodes before we cross the goal line, officials found to be taking bribes from Pitt fans, etc) AND we beat USC. But absent any peculiarities, an 8-4 record with this experienced talent and the “easy schedule” will only be good enough to earn Charlie the chance to be the QB coach for the Cleveland Browns. With Brady Quinn there, you’d think he wouldn’t screw that up … or would he?
Seven weeks ’til kick-off !!!!
Wally
Help a brother would ya. Give me some names please. It’s been so long since pigskin season I can’t remember any of the yutes you speak of. I know there’s Clausen, but….
Sure Casey. Here’s a list of what I’ll call “difference makers” by class, these are the guys that are highly touted and will be counted on heavily:
Seniors: Darrin Walls (CB), Sam Young (OL), James Aldridge (RB), Raeshon McNeil (CB); Harrison Smith (S),
Juniors: Clausen (QB), Golden Tate (WR), Armando Allen (RB); Kerry Neal (LB); Ian Williams (NT), Robert Hughes (RB)
Sophs: MIchael Floyd (WR), Jonas Gray (RB); Kyle Rudolph (TE)
Frosh: Mante T’eo (LB)
The freshman linebacker, T’eo, is supposed to be one of the best if not the best LB entering college. Saw him play in one of the high school all-star games and he just stuffs holes and hits low.
Do they have any other experienced players on the lines? Am I mistaking or is ND looking a little on this aspect?
On a side note – I caught a Notre Dame baseball game. Golden Tate and Evan Sharpley start for the Irish baseball team.
The OL is actually quite experienced overall … juniors and seniors … but they haven’t yet produced the running game results that everyone is hoping for. That’s where the ’09 breakthrough is expected. But on pass blocking, they’ve been decent.
Wally, I share your assessment and your skepticism as well. Heard Lou speak on ND’s chances this year over the weekend. His asessment is the same; experience and talent, but… he has the same but as Wally. Without saying so, he indicates the coaching is a bit suspect. I’ve said it before and I will say it again; 11-1 is NOT good enough if the 1 is a blow-out to USC. If BGI’s predictions are accurate, 11 wins and a close loss to USC, I think Charlie can stay. My only beacon of hope is that in year one of his tenure, Charlie did quite well with an experienced and talented team, but those players were developed by other coaches. Time will tell. I got tix to every game for which I applied except USC. I wasn’t planning on going anyway, but it still crushed me. Hope I don’t miss an instant classic.
Pete —
I was in attendance at that last instant classic in south Bend between SoCal and ND (the Bush Push) a few years ago. I’m still ticked we didn’t win that one … we were RIGHT THERE … 4TH AND 11 …. one more stop …. BUT, NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Leinhart throws it right by our CB’s head (of course he wasn’t looking) and the rest is history. #!@$%!@^%@%#^$#&!!!
We still bristle when we think about that loss as well. It’s never the push that rankles me as much as the pass on 4th and 11 to which you refer. Should never have happened. I had tix for that one but gave them to my daughter and son-in-law. Instead stayed home and watched in agony on TV. Hard to tell which of us had it better (or worse).
Being there was worse! The bus transporting the USC band was right next to where we were parked. So they blasted their damn fight song repeatedly and it only deepened my disappointment. I couldn’t get away from it … at least you could turn the TV off and go onto the back porch 🙂