Well here we are – Week 16 is just a few days away and only a handful of playoff positions have been determined. NFL parity at its best!! Similar to recent NFL seasons, this year has had its surprise teams and certainly its disappointments. Let’s take a look a who is in after 15 weeks, who will probably be in, and see if we can predict the Super Bowl match up. And away we go:
AFC
Who is in: Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans
Who is just about in: Indianapolis Colts
Looking and praying: Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Denver Broncos and the San Diego Chargers.
How it plays out: Barring a miracle the Denver Broncos will win the AFC West and get an automatic bid. Is there a bigger disappointment this season then the Chargers? While Indianapolis is not in, they are about one loss from the teams listed above or one win by themselves from getting in. Baltimore probably needs to win out in order to guarantee a spot in the playoff. They are in Dallas this weekend and then home against Jacksonville – not an easy route into the playoffs Don’t count on the Jaguars doing them any favors. Only one team – maybe 2 if the Ravens lose out the rest of the way – is coming out of the AFC. I don’t think it is likely though. In the AFC East, 3 teams are tied with a 9-5 record. At this point, the Dolphins holds the tiebreaker and controls their own destiny. Here are the remaining games for all 3:
Jets – At Seattle, Home against the Dolphins
Dolphins – At Kansas City, At New York Jets
Patriots – Home against the Arizona Cardinals, At Buffalo Bills
Of the 3, I believe that the Dolphins have the tougher remaining schedule. Kansas City is 2-12, but the game is in Kansas City – it will be cold and loud. This will be a test for the Dolphins and I believe that after the Chargers game last week, Kansas City is ready to knock a team off. New England will have trouble with the Cardinals, but should win. No Trent Edwards in Buffalo? No problem. Overall, I think both the Jets and Dolphins lose one of their last 2 games. New England squeaks out the AFC Title.
Final cut: Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Denver, Indianapolis, Baltimore and New England
Favorite: Defense wins championships and this year is no different. I think Pittsburgh and the new Steel Curtain earn themselves a trip to Tampa Bay
NFC
Who is in: New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals
Who is just about in: Carolina Panthers
Looking and praying: Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, and Chicago Bears
How it plays out: Predicting what is going to happen in the NFC is like swimming in shark infested waters – just not good for our health. At this point, it doesn’t look good for the Minnesota Vikings to be coming out of NFC North. They are a game ahead, but have the toughest remaining schedule. With Tavaris Jackson potentially starting both, I don’t seem them winning both games. Fortunately the tiebreakers are on the Vikings’ side. Schedules look like such:
Vikings – Home against Atlanta and New York Giants
Bears – Home against Green Bay and at Houston Texans
Which leads us to the four other teams – Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Atlanta Falcons. Schedules look like such:
Dallas – Home against Baltimore Ravens, at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia – At Washington Redskins, Home against Dallas Cowboys
Tampa Bay – Home agains San Diego and Oakland Raiders
Atlanta – At Minnesota and Home against St. Louis Rams
Of the 4 schedules, Tampa Bay has the easiest. But they are probably the worst offensive team of the 4, so don’t be surprised if they are knocked off by San Diego. Philly has the tie on their record that leaves them a 1/2 game behind – and it will come back to haunt them in the end. Reviewing the tiebreakers, Atlanta needs alot of help, same with Chicago – but the Bears have Minnesota’s schedule on their side. Will it be enough? Can they get a miracle? Dallas’ defense is by far the hottest of the 4 teams – but will their offensive click? How long can the Dallas D keep this up? You have to like that outside of the Bucs, almost all of team vying for a playoff spot are playing each other in the next 2 weeks. Kudos to the NFL Schedule Makers.
Final Cut: New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Favorite: Dallas Cowboys – Aside from recent rumors, this team is righting the ship at the right time. The defense is getting hot. I think the Giants are in trouble – some holes have been exposed in recent weeks, and with Plaxico and Jacobs out, the Giants offense looks stagnant.
Smitty’s Super Bowl XLIII matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Dallas Cowboys
It is a return to the old days…
As Lee Corso says … “Not so fast, my friend”. First of all, although I hope I’m wrong, the Bears are not going to win the division … and they must win the division to get in … need way too much help to slide into a WC slot. Because Lovie Smith is the dumbest coach in football, they will find a way to lose one of these last 2 winnable games. Minn will likely also lose 1 game and even if the Vikes lost 2 (doubtful), I think they’d win the tie-break over the Bears if they both finish 9-7. Vikings are tough at home and both of their games are in the Humpdome.
Secondly, Carolina is hot and will stay hot. I see the Panthers earning the overall one seed by beating the NYG this week and they will ride that advantage to the Super Bowl. Also, I see the Eagles making the playoffs … McNabb is playing well and they’ve rediscovered Westbrook.
In the AFC, a huge game this week features the Titans facing the Steelers in Nashville. The winner will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. It’s between these 2 and the Colts to reach the SB … don’t rule out Indy if they are healthy. Somehow, the Steelers seem blessed this year … they find a way to win in the 4th quarter practically every week. Lots of moxie, lots of toughness. I guess I agree with Smitty that they will reach the big game. And if they do, hard to bet against them in the Super Bowl.
Dallas may be playing better, but they have two tough games remaining. If Philly beats Washington and Baltimore beats Dallas this week, that final Philly-Dallas matchup is the Cowboys desperately clawing for their playoff lives. Look at the schedule Tampa Bay and Atlanta have in comparison. I think it’s more likely that Dallas doesn’t make the playoffs than they make the Super Bowl…but hey, I’m all for going out on a limb.
Smitty
That’s putting a whole lot of faith in Wade Phillips – don’t ya think?
Yeah the Giants are dealing with some issues, but the Cowboys should be on abc, cbs, or nbc during the afternoon viewing hours.
I don’t have high expectations for the G-Men (although Jacobs should be ready to go for the playoffs).
I agree with Wally – the Eagles are looking good right now.
Wally – Completely agree about the Bears. I went back and forth in picking either team, but settled on the Bears – partly because of 2 things:
1. Tavaris Jackson
2. The idea of you writing more anti-Lovie Smith comments.
The odds are completely against the Bears, but then again – havn’t strangers things happened in the NFL?
Chas – completely agree with Tampa and that they have the easiest road for the rest of the season. But they have lost a couple in a row and I believe they have the worst offense of the teams that are in playoff contention.
I would agree with you on the Ravens/Cowboys game if I didn’t think you were wrong.. 🙂 Just kidding. Actually the Ravens aren’t that good of a team on the road with a 4-3 record. That is deceiving because 3 of those 4 wins are against below .500 teams (Browns, Bengals and Texans), and the 3 losses were against quality teams (Colts, Steelers and Giants). Given the way the Cowboys are playing and the game being in Texas – I don’t think the Ravens are winning.
Also for every time I believe in the Eagles – Andy Reid finds a way to ruin it for me. Something tells me that the Redskins knock them off in D.C.
Agree with Carolina – who for the most part has flown completely under the wire all year. For the first part of the season, they were winning ugly. Right now – they look good – very good. I would love to see a Panthers/Cowboys NFC Title match.
Problem with the NFL is that Lady Momentum changes its mind on a weekly basis. So who knows – in a couple of weeks, we could be talking about a Colts/Falcons Super Bowl.
How ’bout some props for The Tuna? Another stop in his career where Parcells has immediately created a positive effect.
Yes, Casey, next year … or 2010 latest … look out for the Dolphins. I won’t be shocked if they make the playoffs this year … and win a playoff game.
The fact that they are doing it with Chad Pennington at the helm, makes it that much more impressive.
It is hard to like the guy, but you have to admit that what Parcells is doing is impressive.
Interesting how the Brett Favre domino effect has played out. Favre leaves GB and goes to the Jets. The Jets are in contention. Pennington leaves the Jets and goes to the Fins. The Fins are in contention. But the Packers …
Casey – I wondered about that with the Packers, but I don’t think the problem is with Rodgers. In fact, I think he has been pretty good this year.
First this year’s Pack has been a little unlucky. 6 of their 9 losses have been by 4 pts. or less.
I think the problem has been their running game. In 2007 they had a 100 yard rusher in at least 7 games. That also includes a game when Ryan Grant ran for 201. This year ? So far 3 100 yard games. When you can’t run the ball in the NFL – it is hard to hold on to leads.. Right J.P. Losman?
You know what I like about the NFL? NOTHING! But not so true. At least they have a playoff to settle all these profound arguments. Or do they?