BY DAN GLICKMAN
The Rochester Red Wings enter the final week of the first half of the International League season with a chance to do something no Red Wings team has done since 2013: make the playoffs. And their fate will be decided in two places: at home in ESL Ballpark, and over 850 miles away in Memphis, Tennessee.
That’s because the two teams that Rochester is fighting with for the first-half title and a ticket to the playoffs, the Memphis Redbirds (St. Louis Cardinals affiliate) and Nashville Sounds (Milwaukee Brewers affiliate), are playing each other. Rochester is percentage-points ahead of Memphis and two games up on Nashville.
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Under rules set since Major League Baseball’s controversial takeover of the Minor Leagues after the COVID-19 pandemic, the International League and many other leagues plays a split-season schedule. The team with the best record in the IL at the end of June 22, regardless of division, will be the first half champion. With the title will come the honor of hosting the best-of-three International League Championship Series at the end of season at their home ballpark, with the winner of that series going on to the AAA National Championship Game in Las Vegas.
To win the first half – assuming no further games are lost to rain – the Red Wings will need to equal the number of wins that Memphis has, or have two losses fewer than Nashville has. In theory, the Red Wings could clinch as early as Friday, should they win the first four games of their series while Memphis loses four straight.
Standing in the Red Wings way are the Toledo Mud Hens, another stalwart International League franchise and the AAA affiliate of the Detroit Tigers. Managed by Gary Jones, the Mud Hens are 31-37. Despite their losing record, however, they have several capable players, including third baseman Gage Workman (who leads the IL in batting average with a .350 mark), outfielder Max Clark (the No. 1 prospect in the Tigers system and No. 7 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com Pipeline), second baseman Max Anderson (Detroit’s No. 4 prospect), catcher Eduardo Valencia (No. 21 prospect) and utilityman Trei Cruz (No. 22 prospect, grandson of Jose Cruz, and son of Jose Cruz Jr.).
In addition, currently on the Toledo roster is future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander. The right-hander is rehabbing after a hip problem earlier in the season, and threw a simulated game on Monday. While many believe he will likely either be activated to the major league roster or throw another simulated game with the big club, it is possible he may do another rehab start. If he does so for Toledo – under no means a guarantee – it would likely come next weekend in Rochester.
The series with Toledo begins on Tuesday at 6:45 p.m. Rochester has not yet announced its pitching staff for the rest of the week, but Chandler Champlain – arguably the Red Wings’ ace this season with a 5-1 record and 3.47 ERA – was scheduled for Sunday’s game before it rained out. If he starts on Tuesday, he would likely be set to also pitch on Sunday, allowing the Red Wings to use perhaps their best pitcher twice in their most important series of the season.
One might think the Wings are in a great position right now…thanks to, of all things, the TWO rainouts. That allowed Rochester to have a higher winning percentage should they tie either Memphis or Nashville (assuming no more rainouts to ‘cloud’ the whole thing even more.) Helping also is that Nashville and Memphis play each other so one of them is going to lose every night.
A betting person may conclude that if the Wings can go 4-2, they should be in because Memphis would need to go 5-1 over take Rochester….a tough assignment. If Wings go 5-1, even tougher which would result in Memphis having to sweep.
Wings have won 6 series in a row and are not prone to long losing streaks this season, so it would probably take a real choke-job for Rochester to not go at least 4-2. But this is Western NY, where the playoffs go to die, so take nothing for granted. Let’s get win #1 under our belts tonight and hope Nashville can beat Memphis. (best case scenario and a real good ‘best case’!)
Go Wings. Let’s bring it home!!