by TYLER HATAHWAY
Just a month ago, things looked incredibly bleak for Buffalo.
The Bills had just come off of a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12, one that dropped their record to 6-6 and was the team’s fifth loss in their last eight games after starting the season 3-1. According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Bills’ odds to make the playoffs after that loss sat at a measly 15 percent.
However, since the loss in Philadelphia, the Bills have been one of the best teams in football. On the winning side of four of its last five games, Buffalo (9-6) now has an 89 percent to reach the postseason according to the same calculator that essentially said they had a slim shot at playing playoff football four weeks ago.
It wasn’t just Buffalo’s elite play that’s helped them save the season though; the other teams in the AFC wild card race have stumbled. Pittsburgh, who was 7-4 after Week 12, is now 8-7. Denver, a team with the tiebreaker against Buffalo, has lost back-to-back games and is now 7-8. Houston, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis all sit at 8-7 coming off Week 16 losses with the Colts and Texans set to play in Week 18 in a likely elimination game.
All of that has led to Buffalo being able to clinch a playoff spot as early as this upcoming week. To clinch their fifth straight postseason appearance, their longest streak since they dominated the early 1990s, the Bills need to win their Week 17 matchup at home against the New England Patriots. Then, two of the following need to occur:
- Carolina over Jacksonville on the road
- Seattle over Pittsburgh at home
- Kansas City over Cincinnati at home
Additionally, another possibility for the Bills to clinch in Week 17 is for Buffalo to beat New England, in addition to the following:
- Tennessee over Houston on the road
- Las Vegas over Indianapolis on the road
- Seattle over Pittsburgh at home OR Kansas City over Cincinnati at home
Essentially, if the Bills win and Tennessee and Las Vegas both win, only one of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have to lose for Buffalo to clinch a spot. If Tennessee or Las Vegas lose, then the Bills need two losses out of Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati.
The Bills still have a shot at winning the AFC East. For that to happen, the Bills need to win in Week 17 against New England and also in Week 18 against the Miami Dolphins. Additionally, the Bills would need the Baltimore Ravens to beat Miami in Week 17.
The only playoff seeding outcome for Buffalo if they win its division for the fourth season in a row is to be the No. 2 seed, as no matter what happens elsewhere their record would be higher than the AFC West and AFC South winners, but not the AFC North winner. Here are the estimated percentages at Buffalo finishing in each seed in the AFC:
No. 1 seed- 0 percent
No. 2 seed- 21 percent
No. 3 seed- 0 percent
No. 4 seed- 0 percent
No. 5 seed- 2 percent
No. 6 seed- 49 percent
No. 7 seed- 18 percent
The Bills play host to New England (4-11) at 1:00 pm on Sunday at Highmark Stadium.
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