Experienced Badgers poised to take Big Ten

Originally published in USA Today Sports Weekly’s College Basketball Season Preview issue.

By PAUL GOTHAM

Illinois

What to watch:  Malcolm Hill (14.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg) is the leading returning scorer from an Illini campaign which was derailed before it started and never had a chance to get back on track.  The off-season leading to the 2015-16 included a season-ending injury to Tracy Abrams (10.7 ppg, 3.2 apg – 2013-14) during July workouts and dismissal of Darius Paul following an arrest in August of that year. Graduate transfer Mike Thorne Jr. tore a meniscus in the eighth game. The fallout hasn’t stopped.  Kendrick Nunn (11.1 ppg) was recently dismissed from the program following an arrest. Leron Black and Jaylon Tate have also had off-season legal issues.

Bottom line: Both Abrams and Thorne were granted medical hardships and received a sixth year of eligibility. Jalen Coleman-Lands (10.3 ppg) responded well despite being pressed into service as a freshman. Maverick Morgan (8.3 ppg) can give inside production. John Groce got the Illini to 9-9 in 2014-15. That modest finish seems like a stretch this season.

 

Indiana

What to watch: Indiana ranked second in the Big Ten hoisting more than 23 3-pointers per game last year. At the same time, freshman big man, Thomas Bryant scored 11.9 points contest. James Blackmon, Jr. (15.8 ppg) returns after missing the last 23 games due to a knee injury. Two of IU’s three conference losses a year ago came on the road. One of those occurred in overtime at Wisconsin.

Bottom line: It’s been more than a decade since the Hoosiers reached the Final Four. If that streak is to end, offensive balance will be needed. Bryant led the Big Ten (and nobody was close) with a field-goal percentage of 68.3. As a team, Indiana hit 41.6 percent from behind the arc. Can Bryant continue to produce without Yogi Ferrell running the offense?

 

Iowa

What to watch: Peter Jok (16.1 ppg) is the lone returning starter from a squad which took the Hawkeyes to their third straight NCAA tournament. Fran McCaffery will look to rebuild with six freshmen in the lineup. Dom Uhl offers a compliment to Jok’s 3-pt. shooting. Christian Williams, who played sparingly in 2015-16, could assume the point guard, Freshman Jordan Bohannon is next in line to handle the point.

Bottom line: It took McCaffery three seasons to get the Hawkeyes to the NCAA tournament. Now in his seventh season at the helm, he is back in a rebuild mode. It shouldn’t take as long this time. Jok thought better of a move to professional basketball. His decision should help the Hawkeyes upset a few conference heavyweights.

 

Maryland

What to watch: Melo Trimble (14.8 ppg, 4.9 apg) is the lone returning starter from a team which lost four of its last six to close the regular season. Trimble tallied double figures in the Terrapins last 17 games, but his shooting percentage became a concern (7-for-35 over one three-game stretch).  The junior point guard becomes Maryland’s focus on offense. Graduate transfer L.G. Gill (Duquesne) will give the Terrapins production in the post.

Bottom line: Maryland will go as far as Trimble takes them. Part of this includes how well Mark Turgeon’s incoming class of six freshmen work into the system.  Can freshmAn guards Kevin Huerter and Anthony Cowan contribute? Can Gill make the step up from Atlantic 10 play to the Big Ten?

 

Michigan

What to watch: Derrick Walton Jr. (11.6 ppg, 4.5 apg) leads the returning starting five from John Beilein’s squad which earned an at-large bid after reaching the Big Ten semi-final round.  Zak Irvin (11.8 ppg), Mark Donnal (7.8 ppg), Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (8.6 ppg) and Duncan Robinson (11.2 ppg) were Beilein’s core in regular-season victories over Indiana, Maryland and Purdue.

Bottom line: Michigan’s field-goal percentage (44.8) ranked near the bottom of the conference and proved its undoing in a loss to Notre Dame in the NCAA tournament when the Irish shot 58.1 percent (25-of-43) from the floor. Beilein’s returners score points. Can they play a championship level defense? Incoming big men Austin Davis (6-10, 240) and Jon Teske (7-0, 245) should see meaningful minutes.

 

Michigan State

What to watch: With its top three scorers from a year ago having graduated, no Big Ten team has a greater margin between floor and ceiling than the Spartans. Then again, we are talking about hall-of-fame coach Tom Izzo, and the ceiling is probably more the reality. Lourawls “Tum Tum” Nairn Jr. returns at point, and Izzo will look to Eron Harris (43.9 3-pt. percentage) and Matt McQuaid (40.9) for perimeter production.

Bottom line: How quickly can Miles Bridges adjust to play at the college level and more importantly at Michigan State? Izzo’s freshman class of four (five counting redshirt Conner George) will get an early christening when they play November contests against Arizona, Kentucky and Duke.  With Harris and McQuaid spreading the floor, Bridges will take advantage of the room to attack off the dribble.

 

Minnesota

What to watch: Off-the-court issues and eight conference wins over the past two seasons have put Richard Pitino at a crossroads in his fourth year as head coach of the Gophers. Guards Kevin Dorsey, Nate Mason and Dupree McBrayer were all suspended for the final four games of the games of the 2015-16. Reggie Lynch, who sat out last season per NCAA transfer requirements, was arrested during the off-season. Mason and McBrayer returned to the program. Lynch has been cleared of all allegations, but the distractions have left the program beleaguered.

Bottom line: Graduate transfer Akeem Springs (Milwaukee) is one of six newcomers Pitino brought in to turn around the program. In Mason (13.8 ppg) and Jordan Murphy (11.6, 8 rpg) Minnesota returns a pair of double-digit scorers. The Gophers finished at the bottom of the Big Ten shooting 40.5 percent from the floor. Without finding answers to their shooting woes, the Gophers will linger near the bottom of the conference again.

 

Nebraska

What to watch:  Tai Webster (10.1 ppg) is the lone returning double-digit scorer for the Cornhuskers who saw Shavon Shields (16.8 ppg) and Andrew White (16.6 ppg) transfer in the off-season. Junior transfer Anton Gill (Louisville) gives Nebraska much-needed firepower and big-game experience. Glynn Watson Jr. averaged 8.6 points per game with 2.4 assists.

Bottom line: Tim Miles’ Cornhuskers led the Big Ten with 7.4 steals per game but also finished in the bottom half of the conference in field-goal percentage defense (43.8) and scoring defense (69.0). Can the ‘Huskers play pressure defense without giving up easy baskets? Gill played in 31 games for the 2014-15 Cardinals which advanced to the Elite Eight. Can the 6-3 guard shoulder the load of being a primary offensive option on the floor?

 

Northwestern

What to watch: Under Chris Collins Northwestern finished near the top of the conference with a scoring defense of 66 points per game. Junior Bryant McIntosh (13.8 ppg, 6.7 apg) is the leading returning scorer in a lineup which includes sophomores Aaron Falzon (8.4 ppg) and Dererk Pardon (6.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg). Vic Law, the highest-ranked recruit in Northwestern history, returns to the lineup after a season-ending shoulder injury.

Bottom line: The question is going to be asked every year: Is this year? Can Northwestern break through and reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history? A lot of that depends upon Law, a 6-7 athletic forward. McIntosh as well as Falzon and Pardon should be able to pick up where they left off in 2015-16. How will Law perform without having played a game in two years?

 

Ohio State

What to watch: Thad Matta returns his top six scorers from a year ago including four in double digits: Marc Loving (14 ppg), Keita Bates-Diop (11.8), Jae’Sean Tate (11.7) and JaQuan Lyle (11.2). The Buckeyes finished second in the Big Ten with 5.3 blocks per game and their field-goal percentage defense (40.4) ranked in the top four. Trevor Thompson added 6.5 ppg and 5.1 rpg while playing less 18 minutes per game.  Tate will be recovering from a shoulder injury suffered last February.

Bottom line: Last season, Matta’s Buckeyes established some of the defensive and rebounding staples of the program. With returning experience, Ohio State has a chance to catch a few people by surprise. Lyle averaged three turnovers per game as a freshman, and the Buckeyes ranked 13^th (out of 14 teams) with 0.9 assist to turnover rate. With senior point guards like Yogi Ferrell (Indiana) and Mike Gesell (Iowa) moving on, Lyle should flourish in his sophomore campaign.

Penn State

What to watch:  Shep Garner (14.8 ppg, 3.4 apg) and Payton Banks (9.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg) return for Pat Chambers’s Penn State squad, but this season will be about the Nittany Lion newcomers. Tony Carr, Lamar Stevens, Nazeer Bostick and Joe Hampton give Chambers and Penn State a top-25 recruiting class.

Bottom line: With just one NCAA tournament appearance in the past 15 years, expectations are low for the Nittany Lion program. This should give Carr and the freshmen class a chance to develop. Carr is a pass-first point guard who controls tempo. Garner, who has played point in the past, will make the move to off-guard. Redshirt freshman Mike Watkins (6-9, 246) will make an impact inside.

 

Purdue

What to watch: Caleb Swanigan’s (10.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg) decision to bypass the NBA draft for his sophomore season gives Matt Painter potentially the nation’s best front court. Six-eight forward Vince Edwards (11.3 ppg) is the leading returning scorer while Isaac Haas (9.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg) will benefit from an increase in playing time with the graduation of A.J. Hammons. Graduate transfer Spike Albrecht (Michigan) gives the Boilermakers a reliable threat from the outside.

Bottom line: With a rebounding margin of 10.5, Purdue ranked second in the Big Ten to only Michigan State which lost three starters. The Boilermakers have the size to dominate inside, but handling the ball is the question. Will Albrecht recover from hip surgery? Can junior P.J. Thompson and freshman Carsen Edwards shoulder the ballhandling responsibilities?

 

Rutgers

What to watch: After 11 seasons as Stony Brook head coach, Steve Pikiell takes over at Rutgers. The two-year captain at UConn under head coach Jim Calhoun guided the Long Island school to 119 wins over the past five seasons, won four America East regular season titles and took the school to its first NCAA tournament appearance this past March. He inherits a program which has won three conference games in its two years of existence in the Big Ten.

Bottom line: Rutgers returns its top three scorers in Corey Sanders (15.9 ppg), Deshawn Freeman (13.1) and Mike Williams (12.3). At face value that seems like swift improvement is possible. Don’t count on it. The Scarlet Knights will battle to get out of the Big Ten basement this season.

 

Wisconsin

What to watch: Under first-year coach Greg Gard Wisconsin’s ball-control offense handed out as many assists as it committed turnovers – 11. The miscues equaled UW’s high over the past seven seasons. Nigel Hayes (15.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg) saw his shooting percentage drop from 49.7 to 36.8 percent. Despite that, late-season tinkering with the swing offense produced the desired effect, and UW advanced to the Sweet 16. Gard returns his top five performers including fellow double-digit producers Bronson Koenig (13.1 ppg) and Ethan Happ (12.4).

Bottom line: Gard and UW endured Bo Ryan’s untimely mid-season departure and righted the ship in time. With experience returning, expect the Badgers to be in the national title conversation. For that to happen Hayes and Koenig will have to become one of, if not the Big Ten’s elite duo. Vitto Brown (9.7, 5 rpg) and Zak Showalter (7.5 ppg) will to give Gard valuable production.

 

Projected Order of Finish

1. Wisconsin (22-13, 12-6)
2. Purdue (26-9, 12-6)
3. Indiana (27-8, 15-3)
4. Michigan State (29-6, 13-5)
5. Michigan (23-13, 10-8)
6. Maryland (27-9, 12-6)
7. Ohio State (21-14, 11-7)
8. Northwestern (20-12, 8-10)
9. Iowa (22-11, 12-6)
10. Minnesota (8-23, 2-16)
11. Penn State (16-16, 7-11)
12. Illinois (15-19, 5-13)
13. Nebraska (16-18, 6-12)
14. Rutgers (7-25, 1-17)

 

Player of the Year

Nigel Hayes, F, Wisconsin

Rookie of the Year

Miles Bridges, F, Michigan State

 

ALL-CONFERENCE TEAMS

First Team

Thomas Bryant, C 6-10, 255 So., Indiana

Nigel Hayes, F 6-8, 211 Sr., Wisconsin

Caleb Swanigan, F 6-9, 250 So., Purdue

Melo Trimble, G 6-3, 185 Jr., Maryland

Derrick Walton Jr., G 6-1, 190 Sr., Michigan

Second Team

Eron Harris, G 6-3, 190 Sr., Michigan State

Malcolm Hill, G 6-6, 225 Sr., Illinois

Peter Jok, G 6-6, 205 Sr., Iowa

Bronson Koenig, G 6-4, 193 Sr., Wisconsin

Marc Loving, F 6-8, 220 Sr., Ohio State

 

RECRUITING WATCH

Michigan State: Miles Bridges is the centerpiece of what is being heralded as the best recruiting class in Tom Izzo’s career. The 6-6, 230 combo-forward will provide plenty of highlight-reel footage. Cassius Winston gives Izzo depth at point guard.

Penn State: Headlined by Tony Carr, Pat Chambers brought in three players from a Roman Catholic (Philadelphia) squad which won a Pennsylvania state championship. PSU’s five-man class includes DeMatha and Oak Hill product Joe Hampton.

Indiana: De’Ron Davis will add depth to the Hoosiers front court. Combo-guard Curtis Jones, a teammate of current Hoosier Thomas Bryant at Huntington Prep, will fit in to Tom Crean’s up-tempo system.

Maryland: Kevin Huerter and Anthony Cowan are expected to play regular minutes in Mark Turgeon’s rotation. Duquesne transfer L.G. Gill should start right away for the Terrapins.

 

Don’t-Miss Games

Wisconsin at Purdue

Jan. 8: Early-season gauge for a pair of conference contenders. Contest pits player of the year candidates in Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan and Wisconsin’s Nigel Hayes. Purdue swept the two meetings last year including a rare victory for a visitor at Wisconsin’s Kohl Center.

Michigan State at Ohio State

Jan. 15: Michigan State won all three meetings between these rivals last season including a 27-point blowout in the conference quarter-finals. Jae’Sean Tate went down with a season-sending shoulder injury in mid-February and did not appear in any of the meetings. The Buckeye junior will leave his imprint on this game.

Purdue at Michigan

Feb 25: Former Wolverine Spike Albrecht pays a visit to familiar confines but this time as a Purdue Boilermaker. The co-MVP of the 2014 UM team who scored 17 in the 2013 national final game hopes to create a few more story lines.

Indiana at Ohio State

Mar. 4: The Hoosiers took the only meeting between these two last season – a 25-point blowout at Indiana’s Assembly Hall. It was the Hoosiers ninth straight win. The Hoosiers leading scorer that night, Troy Williams, will be playing in the NBA this season. The Buckeyes have a chance for revenge.

Michigan State at Maryland

Mar. 5:  Final tune-up before the conference tournament brings together two teams who will have found their identities by this point in the season. Both the Spartans and Terrapins have young lineups. They will be ready for battle in March. MSU took both meetings last season.