Crowded race atop Atlantic 10

Originally published in USA Today Sports Weekly’s College Basketball Season Preview issue.

By PAUL GOTHAM

Davidson

What to watch: Veteran coach Bob McKillop returns his top two scorers in Jack Gibbs (23.5 ppg) and Peyton Aldridge (15.5 ppg) from a team which slipped to fifth last year after winning the regular season conference title in the Wildcats first year of A-10 play.  Junior forward Nathan Ekwu (5.7 ppg) topped double figures in five conference games and shows the potential for more. Jordan Watkins (37.8 percent from 3-point range) is a streaky shooter who can step up when the situation warrants.

Bottom line: Gibbs eclipsed the 40-point plateau in three different games last year. At the same time, the senior guard led Davidson with 4.9 assists per game. Aldridge paced the Wildcats with 6.5 rebounds. The two combined to hit 131 3-pointers. With players like Watkins, Oskar Michelsen (4.3 ppg) and Rusty Reigel (2.3) contributing, Davidson will compete with the top teams in the A-10.

Dayton

What to watch: With 78 wins over their first three seasons, seniors Kyle Davis (8 ppg, 3.5 rpg), Kendall Pollard (10.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Scoochie Smith (11.7 ppg,4.3 apg) have a chance to become the winningest class in program history. The senior trio also can accomplish a program first in reaching the NCAA Tournament for a fourth straight time. Redshirt senior Charles Cooke (15.6 ppg) led the Flyers in scoring last season after sitting out per NCAA transfer requirements (James Madison). Can redshirt sophomore transfer Josh Cunningham (Bradley) have a similar impact?

Bottom line: The tragic passing of freshman center Steve McElvene (6.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg) in the off-season sent shockwaves through the UD program. Under Archie Miller, the Flyers have shown they are at their best when responding to adversity. Junior guard Darrell Davis (5.8 ppg) has the potential for a break-out season.

Duquesne

What to watch: Jim Ferry’s Duquesne Dukes led the A-10 scoring 79.5 points a game last season. Fifty-eight percent of that production left with the graduations of Micah Mason (18.4 ppg) and Derrick Colter (17.9 ppg) and the transfer of L.G. Gill (10.1 pgg). The Dukes endured a 24-hour bus trip when they got stuck on the Pennsylvania turnpike during a snowstorm and started the A-10 schedule 5-4. An eight-game skid followed including one loss in overtime and three by a combined nine points.

Bottom line: Graduate transfers Emile Blackman (Niagara) and Kale Abrahamson (Drake) bring backcourt production, but it is hard to see Duquesne improving upon their six-win total in conference from the last two seasons. Eric James (9.1 ppg) and Darius Lewis (6.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg) will need to step into larger roles.

Fordham

What to watch: In his first season at the helm, Jeff Neubauer guided Fordham to a 17-13 mark including eight conference wins – both program highs over the past eight seasons. Led by conference rookie of the year, Joseph Chartouny, Fordham used pressure defense to push tempo scoring more than 71 points per game. The Rams will need to replace the production of graduate Ryan Rhoomes (14.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg).

Bottom Line: Chartouny set a program record with 161 assists. Christian Sengfelder (10.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Antwoine Anderson (8.3 ppg, 2.6 apg) will step into larger roles. Can David Pekarek (6-7, 210), who started the last 13 games of 2015-16, give Fordham production in the post? At their best, the Rams create turnovers. Will that scheme survive over the long haul in guard-heavy Atlantic 10?

George Mason

What to watch: Dave Paulsen’s first season with George Mason started with wins over Ole Miss and Oklahoma State in the Charleston Classic and later included an upset of conference heavyweight, VCU.  In between, the Patriots stumbled to a 1-7 start in Atlantic 10 play. Led by all-rookie performer Otis Livingston II (11.9 pgg), Paulsen returns six players who averaged double-digit minutes from that team.

Bottom line:  A healthy Marquise Moore (11.4 ppg) will help George Mason find much-needed consistency on the offensive end. The Patriots will need to improve on a league-low 29.1 percent from 3-point range as well as replace the inside production of graduate Shevon Thompson (9.9 ppg, 10.6 rpg). Jaire Grayer (9.5 ppg) and Jalen Jenkins (7.1 ppg) will contribute production to what should be a balanced lineup.

George Washington

What to watch: The defending NIT champions return leading scorer Tyler Cavanaugh (16.8 ppg, 7.6) and Yuta Watanabe (8.4 ppg), but the graduation of Joe McDonald and subsequent transfer of Paul Jorgenson leave a hole at the point guard position. Seton Hall transfer Jaren Sina will add experience to the backcourt as will graduate transfer Patrick Steeves (Harvard). Freshman Jair Bolden (6-4, 200) could see significant minutes.

Bottom line:  Cavanagh carried a bulk of the scoring load finishing with double figures in all 37 games. Sina will shoulder some of that responsibility. The 6-2, 193-pound guard played in 24 games with 23 starts as a sophomore for Seton Hall averaging seven points and 2.3 assists. Steeves averaged 9.1 points and hit 45.8 percent from three-point range. After an investigation into allegations of verbal abuse, how will the Colonials respond to the untimely dismissal of Mike Lonergan?

La Salle

What to watch: After tumbling to last place, Dr. John Giannini’s La Salle Explorers will have a different look this season with the addition of transfers Demetrius Henry (South Carolina), B.J. Johnson (Syracuse) and Pookie Powell (Memphis). The Explorers return their top four scorers in Jordan Price (19.2 ppg), Cleon Roberts (12.9 ppg), Johnnie Shuler (9.6 ppg) and Tony Washington (7.7).

Bottom line: Giannini took full blame for a season in which the Explorers became predictable on offense with Price averaging more than 16 shots a game. Washington led La Salle with 7.4 rebounds a game. The Explorers used a deliberate pace for what success they had last year. It’s hard to imagine this lineup using the same blue print. La Salle will improve upon its four wins in the league, but a middle-of-the-pack finish is the ceiling.

Massachusetts

What to watch: Derek Kellogg will preach patience this season. The ninth-year coach landed his most heralded recruiting class. Kellogg’s six freshmen will get plenty of chances to make an impact, but growing pains are to be expected.  Donte Clark (16.1 ppg) is the lone returner scorer in double figures.

Bottom line: Under Kellogg, the Minutemen have played up-tempo and emphasized pressure defense. An athletic incoming class fits the mold well. Redshirt junior transfer Zach Lewis (Canisius) will be counted on for offensive production and ballhandling. They may pull an upset or two, but these Minutemen are a season away from challenging the top of the league.

Rhode Island

What to watch: Injuries short-circuited what was to be a promising season for the Rams a year ago. A healthy E.C. Matthews (16.9 ppg as a sophomore in 2014-15) and Hassan Martin (12 ppg, 5.6 rpg) combined with an experienced group of returners makes URI a favorite to snap its 18-year NCAA Tournament drought. Early word from the URI camp is fifth-year coach Danny Hurley is committed to the stingy defense from two seasons ago in which the Rams held opponents to 60.2 points per game.

Bottom line: Matthews is a next-level talent who is capable of taking over a game.  Martin plays with impressive efficiency (59.8 field-goal percentage as a sophomore ranked him among the nation’s best) and stuffs the stat sheet. How quickly can Hurley get this team to mesh as Jarvis Garrett (12.5 ppg) and Kuran Iverson (9.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg) will have to accept different roles from a season ago.

Richmond

What to watch: T.J. Cline (18.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.8 apg) established himself as an elite performer last season. Richmond’s offense ran through the 6-9 face-up four man who frequently directed the offense from the foul line. Marshall Wood (8.6 ppg) led the Spiders and finished top ten in the conference hitting 40.3 percent (58-144) from behind the arc. All-rookie performer Khwan Fore (6.5 ppg) is capable of providing an increase in offensive production.

Bottom line: Five of Richmond’s conference losses came by a combined 18 points including a one-point setback to Dayton. The Spiders, known in the past for their stingy match-up zone defense, allowed 73.8 points per game (11^th in the A-10) a season ago. The struggles left coach Chris Mooney reconsidering UR’s approach. Can the Spiders recapture their defensive identity?

Saint Louis

What to watch: First-year coach Travis Ford has his work cut out. Last year, Saint Louis managed just two wins over A-10 teams with a winning record in conference. Ford has some pieces in place with all-rookie performer Jermaine Bishop (8.9 ppg, 2.3 apg), senior Mike Crawford (10.3 ppg) and Reggie Agbeko (6.2 rpg). Davell Roby (6.3 ppg) flashes brilliance. Can the Billikens find production from other sources?

Bottom line: Ford wasted little time landing an impressive recruiting class including transfers Javon Bess (Michigan State), D.J. Foreman (Rutgers) and Adonys Henriquez (Central Florida) as well as talented freshmen Jalen Johnson and Zeke Moore. Billiken fans will have to wait one season for the transfers to see playing time. The future looks bright for the Billikens.

Saint Joseph’s

What to watch: After winning just seven league games in 2014-15, few predicted Saint Joseph’s would take the league championship. Then Isaiah Miles (18.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg) had a breakout season and gave the Hawks an option to compliment DeAndre Bembry (17.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 4.5 apg) in the offensive attack. With those players having moved on, Phil Martelli’s squad will have different look this season.

Bottom line: Shavar Newkirk (8 ppg, 2.6 apg) and all-rookie performer Lamarr Kimble (6 ppg, 2.5) give Saint Joseph’s a pair of dynamic playmakers at the point guard position. Junior forward James Demery (8.1 ppg, 3.6 rpg) will need to carry a bulk of the scoring load for the Hawks. Freshman Charles Brown, Jr. can score from the outside and off the dribble. Without Bembry’s presence, Martelli’s Hawks will struggle stringing together wins in league play.

St. Bonaventure

What to watch:  St. Bonaventure will need to replace the offensive production of graduated seniors Marcus Posley (19.6 ppg) and Dion Wright (16.7 ppg). Anyone who has followed this program knows that 10^th-year head coach Mark Schmidt is at his best developing players throughout their careers. Led by Jaylen Adams (17.9 ppg, 5 apg) the Bonnies return four players averaging double-digit minutes a year ago.

Bottom line: Adams (43.8 per cent 3-point range) is an elite point guard capable of creating shots for himself and teammates. Denzel Gregg (9.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) was named Atlantic 6^th Man of the Year and is ready to step into a larger role as is Idris Taqee (5.1 ppg, 4 rpg), the team’s defensive stopper a year ago. Add in graduate transfer 6-9 graduate transfer, Chinonso Obokoh (Syracuse) and the Bonnies have the makings for another team ready to compete for a conference title.

Virginia Commonwealth

What to watch: VCU barely skipped a beat under first-year coach Will Wade. The Rams continued to disrupt opposing offenses forcing more than 15 turnovers (25^th nationally) per game while increasing their adjusted offensive efficiency to 110 (from 108 in 2015-16 per KenPom). Mo Alie-Cox (10.4 ppg) took advantage of an increase in playing time and touches to establish himself as a threat in the post. How will Wade and the Rams replace the void created by the graduation of Melvin Johnson (17.4 ppg including 38.1 percent behind 3-point arc)?

Bottom line: After an early adjustment period, JeQuan Lewis proved his play-making abilities (5.1 apg) at point guard last season. If the senior can continue that rise, Wade and the Rams should pick up where they left off. Junior forward Justin Tillman (7.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who topped double figures in nine regular season conference games, will step into a larger role. Doug Brooks (4.2 ppg) and Jordan Burgess (4.9 ppg) give the Rams experience at guard.  Ahmed Hamdy-Mohamed (5.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg) adds another option in the post.

Projected Order of Finish

1. Virginia Commonwealth (25-11, 14-4)
2. Dayton (25-8, 14-4)
3. Rhode Island (17-15, 9-9)
4. Bonaventure (22-9, 14-4)
5. Davidson (20-13, 10-8)
6. George Washington (28-10, 11-7)
7. Saint Joseph’s (28-8, 13-5)
8. Richmond (16-16, 7-11)
9. Fordham (17-14, 8-10)
10. Massachusetts (14-18, 6-12)
11. La Salle (9-22, 4-14)
12. George Mason (11-21, 5-13)
13. Saint Louis (11-21, 5-13)
14. Duquesne (17-17, 6-12)

 

Player of the Year

Jack Gibbs, G, Davidson

Rookie of the Year

Jeff Dowtin, G, Rhode Island

 

All-Conference Teams

First Team

E.C. Matthews G, 6-5, 205 Jr. Rhode Island

Jack Gibbs G, 6-0, 195 Sr. Davidson

Charles Cooke G, 6-5, 196, R-Sr. Dayton

Jaylen Adams G, 6-2, 185, Jr. St. Bonaventure

Mo Alie-Cox F, 6-7, 250 R-Sr. Virginia Commonwealth

Second Team

Tyler Cavanaugh F, 6-9, 238 GS George Washington

Jordan Price G, 6-5, 220 R-Sr. La Salle

Scoochie Smith G, 6-2, 185 Sr. Dayton

T. J. Cline F, 6-9, 230 Sr. Richmond

Hassan Martin F 6-7, 230 Sr. Rhode Island

 

Recruiting Watch

Massachusetts: DeJon Jarreau is rated as a top-100 recruit. The 6-5 shooting guard gives the Minutemen a 3-point threat. Chris Baldwin (6-8,235) brings toughness on the boards.

George Washington: Arnaldo Toro helped St. Benedict’s to a 35-2 finish and a New Jersey prep championship. The 6-9 forward leads an incoming group of seven including Seton Hall transfer Jaren Sina.

Rhode Island: Jeff Dowtin, a combo from Washington D.C., and Cyril Langevine, a power forward from New Jersey both played significant roles for title contenders in high school.

 

Don’t-Miss Games

Virginia Commonwealth vs. Baylor

Nov. 23: VCU takes on Baylor at the Battle 4 Atlantis in an early season matchup between a pair of NCAA Tournament regulars. VCU opened last season’s Big Dance with a win over Oregon State before falling in the second round to No. 2 seed Oklahoma.

Rhode Island at Providence

Dec. 3: The last three Ocean-State rivalry games have been decided by single digits including a two-point win for the Friars a season ago. With E.C. Matthews back in the lineup, URI could snap Providence’s streak in this series and grab an impressive resume building victory.

St. Bonaventure at Dayton

Feb. 18: Jaylen Adams scored 31 including a go-ahead 3-pointer in the final minute of play as St. Bonaventure knocked off then-nationally-ranked Dayton on the road. The Flyers will be looking for revenge. These two finished part of a three-way tie atop the conference last season.

Virginia Commonwealth at Dayton

March 1:  Dayton rallied late to force overtime before going on to claim a one-point road victory in the final game of the regular season. Dayton secured a tie for first place in the final standings with the win. Expect similar implications when these perennial favorites meet.