Big 12 still Jayhawks to lose

Originally published in USA Today Sports Weekly’s College Basketball Season Preview issue.

By JOE MAGS

Baylor (22-12, 10-8)

• What to watch: Scott Drew enters his 14th season with the Bears looking to replace two of the program’s most memorable players. Taurean Prince was drafted in the lottery by the Atlanta Hawks as a First Team All-Big 12 selection. Rico Gathers, perhaps the best rebounder in the country, graduated and joined the Dallas Cowboys’ practice squad. Baylor was 25th in offensive rebounding last season, helping the team secure above average offensive efficiency despite finishing 279th in attempted 3-pointers. The jury is out on how the Bears will find easy buckets without such a striking rebounding advantage.
• Bottom line: Also gone is lead guard Lester Medford, who led the Bears in passing while shooting 36 percent from deep. It is sophomore Allerik Freeman’s show now. Freeman shot 38 percent behind the line and will need to generate points from the perimeter. Ishmail Wainright and Johnathan Motley will absorb most of Prince and Gathers’ minutes, respectively, to form a capable nucleus. Baylor is largely unproven on the fringes of its rotation, but incoming four-star prospect Mark Vital as well as Tyson Jolly will get early burn. The Bears will likely make it four years in a row in the NCAA tournament, but the program is already five seasons removed from Drew’s best season, and appears aimless.

Iowa State (23-12, 10-8)

• What to watch: Georges Niang scored 2,228 points in 4,110 minutes the past four seasons. Suddenly, the fulcrum of one of college basketball’s elite offenses is gone. The Cyclones were consistently scored on, but they made the Sweet 16 on the strength of their Top 15 offense. Head coach Steve Prohm inherited an array of firepower in his first year succeeding Fred Hoiberg, but without Niang’s prowess — not to mention Abdel Nader’s dozen points or Jameel McKay’s dives to the rim — it is legitimate to question where the points will be coming from.
• Bottom line: One thing the Cyclones still have in waves is shooting. Monte Morris, coming off consecutive Second Team All-Big 12 selections, will continue to feed Naz Long and Matt Thomas from behind the arc. Thomas shot 43.2 percent from deep, and an improved season from Long (29.1 percent) would do wonders for Iowa State. Deonte Burton averaged 9.7 points in 18.8 minutes, and will have the green light as a starter. The Cyclones have enough incumbent talent to compete in the short-term while acclimating three transfers (Merrill Holden, Darrell Bowie, Donovan Jackson) and a trio of three-star freshmen.

Kansas (33-5, 15-3)

• What to watch: Kansas won 33 games behind Top 10 rebounding and 3-point shooting last season, a credit to the all-around game of forward Perry Ellis, who left the Jayhawks as an All-American. Incoming mega recruit Josh Jackson will have his opportunities to leave his mark on the program, but he will also need to make up for significant losses throughout the roster. Kansas is replacing Wayne Selden and Brannen Greene on the wing, as well as Jamari Traylor and Cheick Diallo inside, with mostly unproven talent.
• Bottom line: Jackson’s freshman season will remind Jayhawks fans of Andrew Wiggins’ turn with the program. Each game will be a microscope on an 18-year-old’s maturation as the team otherwise rolls through the Big 12. One of the best guard tandems in the country, Frank Mason and Devonte’ Graham averaged 24.2 points, 8.3 assists and 7.6 rebounds combined. Fifth-year forward Landen Lucas grabbed 6.8 boards in 18 minutes while shooting 64.3 percent from the field. Bill Self has won the Big 12 a dozen years running, and that trend shouldn’t stop anytime soon.

Kansas State (17-16, 5-13)

• What to watch: Xavier Sneed chose Kansas State over Illinois and Xavier, and not because the Wildcats have proven much of anything on the floor under head coach Bruce Weber. After making the announcement, Weber called Sneed a slasher, a runner and a threat shooting from deep — all but promising Sneed will have the keys to the offense from day one. Why wouldn’t he? Without Justin Edwards, who led the team in points, rebounding and steals, Sneed is the present and future of the Wildcats.
• Bottom line: Kansas State was 336th in the nation in three-point percentage, and managed just 48.7 shooting on 2-pointers. Until the team can consistently find baskets, Weber’s not going to have a winning group. Wesley Iwundu (11.9 points) and D.J. Johnson (9.3 points, 60.8 field-goal percentage) return, as do Barry Brown and Kamau Stokes, the only returning Wildcats with respectable numbers from 3. Iwundu was named to the Big 12 All-Defensive team as well as Third Team All-Big 12 as a junior.

Oklahoma (29-8, 12-6)

• What to watch: The Sooners won 29 games and sprinted to the Final Four in Buddy Hield’s superstar senior season. In his absence, which also includes the graduation of Ryan Spangler and Isaiah Cousins, Oklahoma could fall down before standing back up. Scoring nearly 80 points per game, Oklahoma’s offense was propped up by abnormal volume shooting, a credit to Hield and Cousins, but by also being a borderline Top 10 defensive rebounding outfit. While his star teammates deservedly got the headlines, it might ultimately be more difficult for Oklahoma to replace Spangler on the interior.
• Bottom line: Senior Jordan Woodard hit 45.5 percent from behind the arc last season, nailing over two 3s per game. He will be paired up with incoming four-star prospect Kameron McGusty in the backcourt, a 6-foot-5 ultra-athlete who stuck with Oklahoma after Florida and Louisville came calling. The Sooners lack the depth and two-way ability they enjoyed on the fringes last season, but they have plenty of breakout candidates. Looking at sophomores Dante Buford and Christian James’ per-minute numbers, it is easy to imagine the four-star recruits stepping into larger roles. Oklahoma needs Khadeem Lattin to control the inside after averaging 5.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks in a part-time role.

Oklahoma State (12-20, 3-15)

• What to watch: The Cowboys were supposed to have a two-headed backcourt with Jeff Newberry before Phil Forte lost his season to an elbow injury in November. Forte last averaged 15 points, 2.2 3-pointers and 1.9 steals per game. Whether or not he can return to form in his fifth season will determine whether or not Oklahoma State can rebound from a ninth-place finish. In Brad Underwood’s first season after making three straight NCAA tournaments with Stephen F. Austin, having Forte to run his offense may buy the program years in rebuilding efforts.
• Bottom line: With Newberry graduated, and Tyree Griffin (3.9 assists, 3.0 rebounds) and Joe Burton as notable transfers out of the program, Underwood has a depleted roster. Forte will look to spread the floor for Juwan Evans (12.9 points), Leyton Hammonds (10.6 points) and Jeffrey Carroll (8.2 points), as the team attempts to put more points on the board after finishing 308th in scoring. Evans was named Big 12 Freshman of the Year despite missing time with injury, but overall, the Cowboys might not have the talent to compete with the top half of the league.

Texas (20-13, 11-7)

• What to watch: The Longhorns are parting ways with 62 percent of their scoring production from a season ago. With Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Prince Ibeh, Connor Lammert and Cameron Ridley graduated, Texas is out 445 rebounds and 115 blocks. Shaka Smart brought excitement in year one, but for his second season to go correctly, he will need to successfully assimilate his first full recruiting class. Five-star center prospect Jarrett Allen is a two-way terror who should remind Longhorn fans of Myles Turner.
• Bottom line: Allen and 6-foot-11 James Bank represent the steady installation of Smart’s system in Austin as bigs who get up and down the floor. Freshmen guards Jacob Young — the left-handed brother of Indiana Pacer Joseph Young — and Andrew Jones enter with plenty of responsibility, but the highly anticipated sophomore seasons of Eric Davis Jr. and Kerwin Roach Jr. should alleviate some of the pressure. Smart has no shortage of talent, and if his young stars are ready to rise to the occasion, there is no telling the ceiling for these Longhorns.

Texas Christian University (12-21, 2-16)

• What to watch: Jamie Dixon has taken over the Horned Frogs in a hurry. In adding former-UNLV assistant coach Ryan Miller to his staff, Dixon put TCU at the top of the list for four-star guard Jaylen Fisher once he opened his commitment up. Fisher will presumably start from day one, and in January, he will be joined in the backcourt by Texas A&M transfer Alex Robinson. The 6-foot-1 guard averaged 5.2 points and 2.6 assists with the Aggies, and was ranked No. 63 in the class of 2014 by ESPN. By conference play, the Horned Frogs might have a backcourt to be reckoned with.
• Bottom line: As Dixon supplants recruits from administrations passed with the caliber of athlete familiar to him during his heights with Pittsburgh, it is possible TCU will become unrecognizable compared to their earliest days in the Big 12. In the meantime, Dixon has some clay to mold: TCU finished 320th in offensive efficiency last season, and the team’s leading scorer Chauncey Collins left the program in May to play overseas. Malique Trent will get plenty of time in the backcourt, and a collection of upperclassmen, namely Brandon Parrish and Chris Washburn, will look to earn Dixon’s trust early.

Texas Tech (19-13, 9-9)

• What to watch: Texas Tech found its way into the NCAA tournament despite being painfully average across the board, earning veteran Tubby Smith the Big 12 Coach of the Year award before he split town for Memphis. Chris Beard took over the reigns of the program and had a busy offseason — the Red Raiders lost three players to graduation and five non-rotation players to transfers, replacing them with three graduate transfers and two JUCO signings. The active roster consists of seven seniors and six juniors, all of varying experience levels at Texas Tech.
• Bottom line: The Red Raiders were led on the inside by Zach Smith, who averaged more than seven rebounds and 1.5 blocks. Smith and Aaron Ross, both thick 6-foot-8 forwards, each scored in double-figures last season. Keenan Evans and Justin Gray could both blossom on the wings in their third seasons after each scoring 8.7 points per game, and Texas Tech needs them to replace Toddrick Gotcher’s perimeter shooting. If any of the team’s new additions hit — with DePaul transfer Tommy Hamilton, a 6-foot-11 center, in mind — Texas Tech can repeat nine wins in the top heavy Big 12.

West Virginia (26-9, 13-5)

• What to watch: The Mountaineers are losing leading scorer and offensive engine Jaysean Paige, as well as Devin Williams and Jonathan Holton. West Virginia was second in the nation in steals (343) in large part to Holton’s 6-foot-7, 220-pound, frame heading the team’s pressure defense. After finishing second in the nation in offensive rebounds, the team lost its three best on the glass. The Mountaineers took second place in the conference a season ago, but such a drastic change up atop the roster could knock West Virginia down a peg.
• Bottom line: Jevon Carter is a fixture for the Mountaineers. The lead guard led the team with 27.7 minutes last season, and he should see his usage rate jump from 18.6 percent in increased time. The same goes for guards Daxter Miles and Tarik Phillip, the later of which hit nearly 41 percent of his 3s in only 88 attempts. It’s unclear what the incoming freshmen class, led by 6-foot-10 Maciej Bender, will have to say about what figures to be a reloading season for head coach Bob Huggins.

Projected Order of Finish

1. Kansas (33-5, 15-3)
2. Iowa State (23-12, 10-8)
3. Texas (20-13, 11-7)
4. Oklahoma (29-8, 12-6)
5. Texas Tech (19-13, 9-9)
6. Baylor (22-12, 10-8)
7. Oklahoma State (12-20, 3-15)
8. West Virginia (26-9, 13-5)
9. Texas Christian University (12-21, 2-16)
10. Kansas State (17-16, 5-13)

*2015-16 finish in parentheses.

Player of the Year

• Monte Morris, G, 6-3, 175 Iowa State

Rookie of the Year

• Josh Jackson, F, 6-8, 207 Kansas

 

All-Conference First Team

Josh Jackson, G, freshman, Kansas, 6-8, 207

Devonte’ Graham, G, junior, Kansas, 6-2, 185

Frank Mason, G, senior, Kansas, 5-11, 190

Monte Morris, G, senior, Iowa State, 6-3, 175

Jarrett Allen, F, freshman, Texas, 6-10, 225

All-Conference Second Team

Deonte Burton, G, senior, Iowa State, 6-4, 250

Phil Forte, G, senior, Oklahoma State, 5-11, 185

Matt Thomas, G, senior, Iowa State, 6-4, 197

Jordan Woodard, G, senior, Oklahoma, 6-0, 187

Zach Smith, F, junior, Texas Tech, 6-8, 220

Recruiting Watch 

• Josh Jackson is the most important incoming freshman in the conference by a mile, because if the McDonald’s All-American lives up to his potential, the Jayhawks will roll in the Big 12. Joining the shooting guard in Lawrence are a pair of frontcourt prospects. Fellow McDonald’s All-American Udoka Azubuike is a 280-pound 7-footer from Nigeria. Mitch Lightfoot, a 6-foot-8 power forward, is the Gatorade Arizona Player of the Year.
• Jarrett Allen is the top-ranked center in the country by ESPN, giving the Longhorns a landmark signing even as part of their rich basketball history. The Austin native should cement Smart’s plans to bring Havoc to Texas, as Allen’s athletic ability offers rare two-way potential. The same goes for incoming center James Bank, ranked 57th overall by ESPN. Superb guard prospects Andrew Jones and Jacob Young round out the class.
• Kameron McGusty stuck with the Sooners, who reportedly made a lasting impact on McGusty when assistant coach Lew Hill told him that he needed to give more effort on the court. Three visits later and McGusty signed on with Oklahoma, becoming the ideal face of the first recruiting class to follow Buddy Hield’s storied career. Joining McGusty are a pair of three-star prospects: 6-10 power forward Matt Freeman and 6-6 wing Kristian Doolittle.
• Jaylen Fisher comes to TCU after being ranked as the No. 34 overall player in the country by ESPN. Considered the eighth-best point guard nationally by ESPN, Fisher, a consensus four-star recruit, chose TCU over offers from Arkansas, LSU, Indiana, Baylor and UNLV. If Jamie Dixon can reel in a few more players like Fisher, the Horned Frogs will compete for the NCAA tournament sooner than later.

Five Don’t-Miss Games

1. Saturday, January 14: Iowa State at TCU. Jamie Dixon’s first Saturday home game in the Big 12 pins his Horned Frogs against a greater foe in the Cyclones. But Dixon is winning over TCU fans with ease. Punching an established program such as Iowa State in the mouth so early in his tenure would paint the sky purple in Fort Worth, if only for a weekend.
2. Monday, January 16: Kansas at Iowa State. The Jayhawks only lost three times in conference play last season, but none felt more significant in the moment than the Cyclones’ 13-point defense of their home floor. Bill Self and his coaching staff will have Kansas prepared to avenge the loss, but Iowa State has all of the motivation in the world to make it two in a row in Ames.
3. Saturday, February 18: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: A storied rivalry that stands for pride regardless of the annual implications, the Cowboys took the Sooners within two points in Stillwater. These are two very different teams one year later, but a victory for Oklahoma State could come to represent their season. Oklahoma, meanwhile, needs to beat inferior opponents in order to maintain its contender status without Buddy Hield.
4. Saturday, February 25: Kansas at Texas. Shaka Smart’s debut season in Austin ebbed and flowed. With that said, a 30-point loss is a 30-point loss, and Kansas eviscerated Texas in late-February — setting the Longhorns up to lose three of their final four games. In a battle between the conference’s top two freshmen, Jarrett Allen against Josh Jackson will be mesmerizing.
5. Wednesday, March 1: Texas at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders won nine conference games, but were upset by TCU in the Big 12 tournament before losing a toss-up NCAA tournament game in the No. 8-9 matchup with Butler. Winning big games late in the season is a great way for Texas Tech to show the NCAA tournament committee — let alone its in-state rival — the team’s ready for strong seeding.