By Paul Casey Gotham
“There is. A house. In New Orleans. They cawlllllll the rising sun. And it’s been. The ruin. Of many a poor boy. And God. I know. I’m one.”
Four remain. When the ball tips off Saturday night it will signal the beginning of the end. Sixty-four games have been contested. Three to go. This weekend brings together four regional champions whose means to an end are similar yet different. They have supported a couple of theories and debunked at least one.
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville (or should it be Lou-vul?) and Ohio State. Four conferences represented. Four styles too.
But how drastically different are those styles?
Volume seems to be the best word to describe Kentucky – volume of possessions, volume of shots, volume of points and, yes, the volume created by noise.
The Wildcats lead the nation in scoring margin (17.3). Of course, they do. Teams with 36 wins to two losses tend to outscore opponents. The margin can increase from there with increased opportunities. For the record, Ohio State is second (15.3), and Kansas ranks ninth (12.5).
What is the means to that end?
To win a team must score. Kentucky does plenty of that. 77.9 is good for 15th in the country. UK is the only team in NOLA ranking top 50 in scoring.
In line with the scoring goes Kentucky’s team field goal percentage. Led by freshman Anthony Davis, the Wildcats connect 48.8 percent (1045-2143) of the time. Davis leads the land hitting more than 63 percent (202-319) of his shots.
Though not among the nation’s leaders in points per game, Ohio State and Kansas both make good on their attempts.
Led by Thomas Robinson (247-482/51.2 percent) and Tyshawn Taylor (215-446/ 48.2), the Jayhawks connect 47.6 percent (976-2051) of the time, good for 21st.
Jared Sullinger (223-420/53.1) and Deshaun Thomas (240-453/53.0) head a Buckeye offense that hits 48 percent (1037-2160) of their shots (18).
Interesting to note that Sullinger, despite playing two fewer games, has taken 100 more shots than Davis.
Which leads to the next point. This weekend might produce a record-setting number of blocks. All four teams have players they go to in the post creating plenty of opportunities for swats. Kentucky (8.6) and Kansas (5.6) rank first and ninth. Louisville blocks 4.8 (30th).
Why not go for the block. None of the four remaining teams rank in the top 50 for free throws. Kentucky’s 72.7 percent from the line is good for 56th among the nation though their 897 attempts is one of the highest.
Ohio State is next making 70.5 percent (116th).
Protecting leads from the charity stripe might get interesting. Oh the importance of making free throws.
When it comes to cutting into a big lead from long range, none of the contestants look up to the task. Kentucky ranks 37th in the country finding the range 37.8 percent (309-817) of the time. But UK’s 5.7 treys per game is 212th in the country. Actually none of the remaining rank in the top 190 in the 3-pointers made.
One positive in common is field-goal percentage defense, Kentucky (1), Louisville (3) and Kansas (4) all rank in the top five. The Wildcats limit opponents to 37.5 percent (893-2248) from the field. Louisville’s adversaries get 38 percent (829-2061) while Kansas also holds the opposition to 38 percent (783-2061).
Making it difficult for the opposition to score. Sounds like a long-range plan for success.
Again, notice the volume. Kentucky’s opponents don’t make a lot of shots, but they take a lot of shots.
Don’t mistake steals for defense. Louisville swipes 8.9 per game – seventh in the country. None of the other three are found in the top 50.
Ohio State is 45th with field goal percentage defense of 40.6 percent (815-2006). OSU’s rivals don’t score much, but when they get shots, they make them count.
The Scarlet and Gray give up 59.7 points per game (19th in the country). Kentucky is 25th with 60.6. Louisville (60.8) ranks 31st while Kansas (61.6) is 42nd the country.
OSU is sixth in the land with a rebound margin of 7.7. Kentucky’s 7.1 margin is 10th. Kansas is 23rd with 5.7.
Make sure to read Luke Winn’s break down of the Kentucky-Louisville or Louisville-Kentucky affair.
Numbers usually level off during games. If so, how these play out?
“This is my current favorite CraftFact: In the NCAA tournament, he’s accounted for 40.20 percent of Ohio State’s total turnover production. That includes 13 credited steals, 5.5 uncredited turnovers, one charge taken and one moving-screen foul drawn.”
That is an insane state line. Makes you wonder why Matta would ever want Craft out of the game. There are several things I’ll throw it out there as separate comments:
#1
Louisville is a horrible offensive team. It’s really bad. They are 155th in PPG with like 68. They are 225th in FG percentage. What does that mean? I think that rebounding is just as important as people make it out to be. And, as discussed many a time on the Pine, defense wins…a lot of games. With that being said, Teague will have to manage this game well. I don’t think it starts and ends with him, but he will feel the pressure in those situations where Kentucky breaks pressure and now stares a halfcourt set. If Louisville makes it so Kentucky can’t break free and score easy assisted baskets, they have a puncher’s chance, which is probably stating the obvious. But my gosh they are a horrendous offensive team.
#2
I mean, the Cardinal’s leading scorer is that guy pictured above. That is some horrible shooting form. Guide hand all over the ball; the ball is at the side of his head; shooting hand all under the ball and flat. This guy is their leading scorer. That means Pitino is doing one heck of a coaching job.
And to think Craft is a Pre-Med student. I should have figured this out on my own, but Bracket Breakdown mentioned that he and Sullinger were AAU teammates. They have been playing together for five years.
Not only is Kuric’s guide hand all over the ball, but his shoulders are leaning back. If I didn’t know any better, I’d say Larry Bird is his hero.
#3
Ohio State does have a great, patient style of offense and they take high percentage shots. UNC-Kansas was played at a fast pace. What gives in this game? I think the Jayhawks connect so well because of their pace and their physicality. I thought their physicality would disrupt UNC’s flow. They are so strong on the perimeter and get out so fast, it causes teams to be reactive when they would really like to be more proactive. With that, I can see Sullinger and others getting in silly foul trouble. Kansas will go man, Self will adjust and I think throw all sorts of random doubles at Sullinger in the post enough to make Ohio State shaky. Great conflict of playing style interests here.
Despite all those ugly numbers regarding Lou-vul’s offense, Russ-“diculous” can make it happen. How do you prepare for that team? Okay guys, on offense they are 155th in the country and are 225th in shooting, but they can light it up any time they want.
#4
At the beginning of this year, who would have said that Austin Rivers going to the draft is a bad idea but Kendall Marshall going is a good idea?
Haha. How do you prepare for that? Great question…
Got to admit. I was never impressed by Rivers. I was trying to think back to Bobby Hurley’s first season. He was pretty whiny and difficult to watch, but Hurley had some endearing qualities during that first season. Rivers? Is it just me, or does he look physically weak? How is that going to transfer to the Association?
“I cried to my Daddy on the telephone, how long now? Until the clouds unroll and come home, the line went”
I heard interviews this morning with Calipari and Pitino. I found it very interesting that Calipari spoke about treating it as just a normal game, getting his players away from the moment of the Final Four weekend. Pitino spoke about wanting his players to embrace the moment and enjoy themselves.
It was two completely different approaches and it made wonder if it was the difference of listening to a guy who had won a National Title and a guy who needs a National Championship to validate his career.
Wasn’t Rivers’s father on record earlier in the year as stating that Austin wasn’t leaving early?
Rey, you talked about how much Rivers wasn’t liked around Duke. Could that have pushed him to leave earlier then he may have wanted?
His game certainly had flashes of “NBA” quality. But in my mind he didn’t look physically ready and at times – his game didn’t look ready. But is being NBA ready more based on potential as opposed to being game ready?
Heard an interview with Bob McKillop yesterday. His Davidson Wildcats played both Kansas and Lou-vul this year. While he did not talk about the Cardinals poor numbers, he talked about the way Lou-vul grinds it out on offense. They use A LOT of screens and make the opposition defend for at least 20 seconds every possession. Eventually that wears out the opponent. Early possessions don’t get baskets, but set it up for late runs when the opponent is tired.
Teams that grind it out are tough, especially the ones that can get defensive stops.