By Aaron M Smith
I am sitting here after a day of family, a belly full of turkey and many reminders of what I am thankful for. As people get ready for Black Friday and a weekend of holiday shopping , there are plenty of important college football games that could have huge implications on the Pickin’ Splinters College Football Poll. So pull up a chair, pull up a hot turkey sandwich and let’s take a look at the games:
Arkansas (#3 PSCFP) vs. LSU (#1 PSCFP):
For LSU to make it to the National Championship game, this is their first obstacle . Arkansas is a high powered offense that features a QB (Tyler Wilson) that has thrown 8 TD passes in his last 3 games, and one of the best receiving corps in college football. Problem for the Razorbacks is that LSU has one of the best secondaries in college football. So it is strength against strength. Arkansas hasn’t lost since Week 4, and LSU – well, hasn’t lost yet. I think the BCS mess continues – Arkansas in the upset 24-23.
Houston (#4 PSCFP) vs. Tulsa:
Another high powered offense led by QB Case Keenum, who is on a record setting pace in 2011. In order for Tulsa to contain the Cougar offense, they will need to rely on their running game. Led by Trey Watts and Ja’Terian Douglas, the Golden Hurricanes average 210.1 rushing yards per game. If Tulsa falls behind early, they will have to go away from their strength. Houston wins 41-20.
Alabama (#2 PSCFP) vs. Auburn:
The annual Iron Bowl that for the second straight year, has National Championship implications. Last year the Crimson Tide blew a 24-0 lead to a Cam Newton led Auburn, eventually losing 28-27. So besides the pride of Alabama at stake, a little revenge may be in order. While sporting one of the best defenses in college football, Alabama’s offense is inconsistent at best. Auburn gives a lot of yards on the ground, so expect a heavy dose of Trent Richardson. This game is at Auburn, which is why I think this game is close. In the end, Alabama wins 24-20.
Notre Dame vs. Stanford (#5 PSCFP):
Andrew Luck’s final home game as a Stanford Cardinal and one of his last opportunities to state his Heisman case. Stanford still has a outside chance at the National Championship game, but to keep that chance they must beat an Irish team that has won 8 of their last 9 games. To beat the Cardinals, Notre Dame will need to control the ball on the ground. The Irish suffered a huge blow last week when Jonas Gray went down with a season ending knee injury. Cierre Wood will need to carry the load for the Irish and with 1,001 rushing yards on the season – he should be up to the challenge. Emotions will be high in this game with this being Luck’s final home game and a statement game for Brian Kelly’s team. Notre Dame in the upset, 27-24.
Georgia (#10 PSCFP) vs. Georgia Tech:
Already clinching a birth in the SEC championship game, the Bulldogs will look to win their 10th straight game. To do that, Georgia will need to slowdown Tevin Washington and the high octane Yellow Jackets offense. In the Bulldog backfield, Isaiah Crowell should be back after leaving last week’s game due to an ankle injury. The other star in the Georgia running game, Carlton Thomas isn’t expected to play after breaking a team rule. Georgia’s streak continues, 27-17.
Penn State vs. Wisconsin (#15 PSCFP):
This game has a conference championship game berth on the line. Both teams have had their adversity in recent weeks, and for very different reasons. The Nittany Lions will have their hands full trying to contain Russell Wilson. Penn State will rely on Stephfon Green to keep Wilson off the field. Green ran for 2 TDs in last week’s win over Ohio State. Wilson and the Wisconsin crowd will be too much. Wisconsin wins 28-20.
I no longer can predict outcomes, so I am just going with what I HOPE happens; Ark beats LSU, Aub beats Ala, Hou beats Tulsa – Smitty, your prediction looks a bit optimistic for the Cougars. Tulsa’s only losses are to OU, Ok St, and Boise. – Ga Tech beats UGA, thereby adding more “negative” to the loss to whomever UGA beats in the SEC championship game, and of course ND over Stanford, propelling the Irish to a top 20 BC(mes)S ranking and a more prestigious bowl game. I can’t get a handle on what I want in PSU/Wisc.
Pete’s scenario is crazy, but not unrealistic. So, who does that leave in the BCS championship?
With Alabama losing to Auburn, there would no longer be a three-way tie atop the SEC West, so Arkansas would be the team to lose to Georgia in the SEC championship, knocking them out of title contention.
Alabama and Stanford’s second losses knock them out of the mix as well. Let’s say Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State.
That leaves LSU, Virginia Tech, Boise State and Houston as the only teams with less than two losses.
I think we’re looking at an LSU-Virginia Tech championship. It’s really looking almost impossible for Houston or Boise State to get there at this point.
Would love to see my Nittany Lions upset Wisconsin, by I don’t see it happening.
I dont know if LSU loses, but they are 13 point favorites. That’s a big number, so that means Vegas likely knows something that we don’t. I’ll take LSU, to cover, even though I think there is a TD separating the 2 teams.
Pete’s predictions are like the sadomasochist predictions of a BCS official. With that being said, I hope he’s right!
I find it interesting that the lack of offense in the LSU-‘Bama game has now morphed into that LSU and ‘Bama are actually inept offensive teams (hearing this on raido a lot). Come on, really?
Suddenly Andrew Luck’s Heisman hype is being deafened by Matt Barkley. Better NFL QB? Will this be a Leaf-Manning draft?
“I find it interesting that the lack of offense in the LSU-’Bama game has now morphed into that LSU and ‘Bama are actually inept offensive teams (hearing this on raido a lot). Come on, really?”
A product of the casual fan needing his say on sports since most stats referred to are offensive…in more ways than one. 🙂
LSU didn’t show any inept offense today! Some broadcaster said LSU would “win going away”! I said he was crazy. Looks like I am the crazy one. They still have to get by UGA, but if they don’t and Aub wins, my wish for “no SEC in the NC game” still has potential. I am now looking at a VaT v Houston championship pairing. Houston took care of business today in a manner much closer to Smitty’s prediction than to mine. If Aub and ND take care of business too, then my wish should become reality.
So here is an interesting stat: Michigan played 8 of their 12 games at home. They were 2-2 on the road, with their road wins being Northwestern and Illinois.
I am having a hard time taking the 10-2 record seriously when you don’t play at least half of your games on the road.
Stat I saw today: 5 times has the #2 ended the regular season a week earlier (like ‘Bama is doing not having to play a conference championship) and 5 times has that #2 stayed #2 and played for the national championship. So…hello rematch. And the thing about it is the poll voters are affecting th BCS by NOT putting OK State or Houston or someone higher in their rankings. Thought a lot of writers were against the BCS.
Are we still doing our own playoff?
This is ridiculous:
https://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7287786/kansas-jayhawks-fires-coach-turner-gill-following-10-game-losing-streak
They guy got 2 YEARS to turn around KANSAS football??? Come on, Kansas, you canNOT be serious! I hate this trend that coaches are immediately on hot seat after one bad season. It’s not like Kansas was a lucrative job or one that was looking to get back on a winning track. I remember they were good for a few years with Tod Reesing, but other than that, they’ve never been relevant in the Big 12, right?
Rey – you’re right. It is ridiculous. I agree with everything you say. Love what Gill did for the UB program. BUT I questioned this hire almost from the beginning. Gill is a Nebraska guy. Kansas fans were starting “Fire Turner Gill” websites before he even coached a game.
Smitty: most of the big-time programs play 7 of 12 home games. The reason is the weaker non-conference schools they schedule don’t get the benefit of a home-and-home. They have to travel in order to get to play Michigan. Georgia and Wisconsin also only had four road games this year.
Doesn’t seem fair, but it kind of makes sense when you think about it. Still, 8 of 12 at home is a bit ridiculous. I can live with 7 of 12.
Chas, I get why most teams play an unbalanced home/away schedule. My point was that Michigan went on the road only 4 times and they are now being touted as a possible BCS invite. I’m sorry, but playing 8 of your home games and going 2-2 in the games you did go on the road for – has to work against you a little.
I think that is accurately reflected in the Pickin’ Splinters Poll but I’ll move that over to another discussion thread.