By Aaron M Smith
If Charles Dickens was here, I think he would love the upcoming 2010 American League Championship Series. This ALCS features a Tale of Two Cities if you will.. First you have the city/team that is excited to be here ( Texas Rangers). Then you have the city/team that expected to be here (New York Yankees). Both teams took different routes to get here. The Yankees swept the Minnesota Twins, while the Texas Rangers erased the Tampa Bay Rays in the maximum 5 games. Let’s take a look at both teams:
New York Yankees:
Let’s face it – this team was supposed to be here. With a strong lineup led by MVP candidate – Robinson Cano, the Yankees will need to rely on its starting pitching to help them get past the Texas Rangers. CC Sabathia looked good in Game 1 vs. the Twins and will get the start in Game 1 of the ALCS. After the Sabathia, expect Andy Pettite, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett to follow. How effective will Burnett be after struggling for most of September? Pettite looked great in Game 2, ,but how much was Pettite and how much was a struggling Minnesota Twins lineup? Kerry Wood has been a star in the Yankees bullpen – can he continue in the ALCS? If the Yankees find themselves down 3-0 or 2-1 hole, do they skip Burnett and bring Sabathia back on short rest?
Texas Rangers:
I read an article today in which they compared the 2010 Texas Rangers to some of the recent Anaheim Angels teams. I completely agree. If Game 5 of the ALDS was any indication, expect this Rangers team to be extremely aggressive on the basepaths. Add in the fact that Jorge Posada threw out less than 18% of baserunners attempting to steal this year and it is a recipe for disaster for Yankee pitchers. The Rangers will send C.J. Wilson to the mound in Game 1 and they were 24-9 in games Wilson started this season. Colby Lewis will start in Game 2 and ace Cliff Lee will take the mound in Game 3. One of the downsides to taking the Rays in 5 – Lee had to pitch twice. With Lee starting in Game 3, Lee should be in line to pitch Game 7 – if necessary. Josh Hamilton was 2 for the series against the Rays. Are the ribs still bothering him or is he just trying to get back in the swing of things? Elvis Andrus wrecked havoc on the Rays in Game 5 and really set the tone for the Rangers. Will he continue to thrive in the ALCS? Will the Rangers starting pitching hold up?
Prediction: Sticking with the unexpected – the Rangers in 7 games.
Have a prediction? Let’s hear it.
Again, Smitty, I like you’re pick from a personal preferences standpoint, BUT … not so fast, my friend! I would love to see the Rangers squash the Yankmees, but I think the way pitching sets up with ace Cliff Lee deferred until game 3 tilts the table in NY’s direction. The Rangers MUST win the first 2 games at home to have a shot. As much as I hope I’m wrong, the ol’ noodle says Yankmees win in 6.
Ain’t it just like the Rays to set the table for the Yanks. If only the Rangers could have dispensed Tampa without having to use Lee twice.
Ain’t it just like the Rangers to @#$%! this up with a Game 1 giveaway?? Was Washington guilty of pulling his starter too early??? I know it’s hindsight, but I have to go back and see what CJ’s pitch count was and what led up to it. The relievers certainly sucked. And today’s managers are way too guilty of this early hook, esp Ozzie Guillen.
I certanly hope the Rangers aren’t thinking this, but IT”S OVER. Stupid to say after 1 game … I know… but the Rangers just gave them a HUGE mulligan. And now the Yankmees are in their heads. And wait til they get to Yankmee Stadium.
The Rangers DO have Cliff Lee pitching in the Bronx.
How about the wild pitch that caroms off the brick directly back to Posada. Crap!!!!! How does that happen? The Rangers let Sabbathia off the hook.
I actually commented from my mobile device last night, during the 8th inning, that I guess I was wrong about Texas’s bullpen, but for some reason the comment didn’t stick. The mobile site looks really good, by the way. Is that a WordPress thing, or something that had to be set up?
Wally: Wilson was on 104 pitches, and starting to look human. I didn’t question the move at the time, but of course, I thought their bullpen was better. O’Day, Oliver, Feliz and Ogando were really good in the regular season, but they’re not getting it done in the playoffs.
Lee is unflappable. He’s going to need to be.
Don’t forget that, not only has Cliff Lee not pitched yet, but neither has A.J. Burnett. Almost makes me think the Yankees should pitch Burnett against Lee, but that would be like forfeiting. Plus, it would screw up the rotation for game 7.
CC only threw 93 pitches last night. I have a feeling he’s coming back for game 4.
Chas – when you say the site looked good on the mobile phone – what does that mean? Is that in comparison to other sites? I did install a plug-in that is supposed to help, but I wouldn’t know. I did it of course because I know how much time Wally spends viewing the site from his hand held device.
Somehow the Nolan Ryan look will have to be worked into an article – the arms folded across the chest as if to say – don’t make me put on a uniform and show you how it is done.
Let’s hope Yanks aren’t up 2-0 by the time Lee pitches. Texas bullpen soiled themselves.
I’m at A+M for the Mizzou game today.
Casey, I mean the site was very easy to read on a mobile device. It was obviously a mobile version of the site, rather than trying to view a web site designed for 1024 x 768 on a tiny little screen.
Speaking of that Nolan Ryan look:
https://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives/2010/10/15/yanks-wake-up-in-time-and-rebound-to-win-game-1/
Now that I followed that link, I feel soiled. I probably should go to confession for spending time on a Yankee site. HAHAHAHAHA
Wally – we expect updates. 🙂 Kidding – enjoy yourself.
Chas – it’s good to know that one of the plugins is doing its job.
All the credit should go to Dustin Moseley who kept the game at 5-0 last night – long enough for the Yankees to wake up and come back.
Frustrating to watch though as CJ WIlson was great last night. I agree with Chas – he was over 100 pitches when Washington pulled him. I don’t question that for a minute.. I was actually thinking that Washington wasn’t pulling a Grady Little and leaving Wilson in too long.. . But like Wally said, the Texas bullpen soiled themselves.
They better right the ship quick since Game 2 is today.
Wally – I know what you are saying about the Rangers going down 2-0, but like Chas says: Lee could make it 2-0, and then Burnett pitches game 4. Rangers would have a good chance of recapturing home field advantage. Not that that matters to Texas. They don’t seem to do well with home cooking.
Back to Burnett. Did everyone see this? https://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/10/13/burnett.simulated.ap/index.html
Is there any organization in baseball or in pro sports that could afford to make a mistake like the Yanks made with the Private Pie.
I wonder if the cute ball girl is still working right field:
https://pickinsplinters.com/2009/04/10/the-ballpark-at-arlington/
Don’t know, but that security guard might have worked a little harder to get out of the way.
So Michael Kay is accusing Cliff Lee of cheating????
Can Cliff Lee accuse of Michael Kay of being a bad announcer?
What is this that you speak of?
https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2010/10/15/2010-10-15_lees_hat_trick_a_real_talker.html
Michael Kay is an idiot, too.
Food for thought as we all settle in to watch Cliff Lee battle Andy Pettitte in Game 3 at Yankmee Stadium:
What do you think about Pettitte as a Hall of Fame candidate when he’s done playing? In addition to his incredible post-season win total (19-9 W-L record .679), here are his career stats over 16 seasons: 240-138 (.635), 3.88 ERA.
Sure, he’s pitched for the Yankmees which is a big advantage during this era, but when you’re 19-9 in the post-season and win over 63% of your regular season games, you ARE one of the reasons the Yankmees have been really good-great. I would venture to say that NYY have not won 60% of their games during Pettitte’s years. His ERA is a little pudgy, BUT he’s been an AL hurler most of the time (DH rule hurts ERAs vs NL) and his carreer has spanned over much of the “juiced hitter era”. I’m thinking he’s HoF material.
Thoughts from the Pine?
Right now, statistically speaking, Pettitte is a lot like Jack Morris. I bet Pettitte gets better HOF support than Morris, and maybe ends up having to wait a number of years on the ballot like Bert Blyleven. I think those years will tell a lot, too, as maybe voters start to realize that 250 wins is the new milestone, rather than 300.
Of course, he could decide to play three more years and get to 270 wins, possibly making his case stronger. Or, he could stick around too long, and see his lifetime ERA climb to 4.00.
Short answer…he’s a borderline candidate.
Jack Morris: 254-186 (.577) and ERA of 3.90. 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA in the post-season. Advantage — Pettitte. Slightly different era. I bet he’ll make it on the 5th or 6th ballot.
Pettitte sure pitched well last night. One mistake. Usually, the Yankmees score more than 2 runs and he gets the W.
Cliff Lee was … well … practically perfect. That guy is in a zone, which is what it takes to succeed on the mound in the playoffs, esp on the road.
Yes, Pettitte’s stats are a little better than Morris’s.
Speaking of different eras, I know you guys aren’t huge on sabrmetrics, but here’s one you should get on board with. It’s called ERA+. Basically, it’s a stat that looks at a pitcher’s ERA in comparison to the ERA of the league he played in, and also adjusts for park factor.
An ERA+ of 100 is average. Above 100 is better than average, and below is worse. Pettitte’s career ERA+ is 117, Morris’s is 105. Considering they have virtually identical career ERAs (Pettitte – 3.88, Morris – 3.90), ERA+ gives Pettitte a significant advantage. The career leader in ERA+, for starting pitchers, is Pedro Martinez at 154.
I’m still thinking about the Pettitte question.
If you take out Friday night’s eighth inning, the Yankees have scored 3 runs in 26 innings. A-Rod, Teixeira and Cano – 3 runs. This can’t last much longer. With Burnett on the bump, what’s the over/under for today’s game?
Chas – how does Pettitte’s WHIP compare to others?
I’m looking at his years with Houston. One year he was injured – inconclusive. Next year, he was 17-9 with a 2.39. That’s more than solid. Then, he went 14-13 with a 4.20. That’s not too impressive. Pettitte’s career rises and falls with being a Yankee. How many wins would he have had he played in San Diego, with the Mets or say the Royals? He is an above average / great post-season pitcher. Would we know of this had he played with other teams?
That being said – his HOF candidacy is valid.
Casey —
I think Chas’s ERA+ metric is the stat you’re looking for. It would be interesting to compare Pettite’s 117 with other pitchers who did make the HoF … or others we consider shoo-ins for eventual induction. For me, he certainly gets several “extra credit points” for his post-season track record.
I guess to answer your specific question about pitching for the Mets or Padres … his winning % would certainly be lower but his career ERA would be in the low 3’s due to pitching in the NL and in more pitcher-friendly ballparks.
I don’t have as easy a way to compare WHIP to peers as I do ERA, but it probably doesn’t compare favorably. Pettitte has always been one of those pitchers with a relatively high WHIP (he’s actually allowed more hits than IP over his career), but I don’t place all that much stock in WHIP. What’s more important, preventing baserunners or preventing runs? If a guy has a high WHIP and low ERA one year, I might consider him lucky, but when a guy has pitched 3000 innings, I’d rather look at runs allowed, and ERA+ allows the statistic to be normalized across eras, leagues and ballparks.
Casey, I do think your question about where Pettitte played is totally valid, but we could have this discussion about a lot of players, so we really just have to consider Pettitte lucky to have gotten the chance to play on the big stage, and evaluate him based on whether or not he’s lived up to the challenge.
Your question also probably points to why Bert Blyleven is having such a tough time getting into the HOF. Blyleven has a .534 career winning percentage and a 118 career ERA+. Of course, he has higher cumulative statistics than Pettitte, but if he played on better teams, he’s easily have 300 wins and be looked at a little differently.
Wally, here are some HOFers with a lower ERA+ than Pettitte:
Catfish Hunter – 105
Early Wynn – 107
Don Sutton – 108
Red Ruffing – 110
Nolan Ryan – 112
Robin Roberts – 113
Mickey Welch – 114 (this name sounds familiar 😉
Jim Bunning – 114
Fergie Jenkins – 115
Steve Carlton – 115
This isn’t everyone, just some names that are recognizable. On the other hand, there are plenty of names whom you’d never consider for the HOF who have a better ERA+ than 117. It would be interesting to see if there are pitchers, besides Blyleven, who have more than 250 wins and an ERA+ better than Pettitte’s. I have to get back to work, though. 🙂
Somewhere I read that someone predicted 20 runs for tonight’s game. I would honestly place the over/under at 13. Would you take the over or under on that?
I’d take the under … barely. I see 11 or 12 runs scored tonight.
Non-Hall of Famers (or players with obvious HOF credentials such as Maddux, Clemens, Glavine, R. Johnson) with 250 career wins and an ERA+ of 115 or greater (also excluding 19th century players):
Bert Blyleven (287 wins, 118 ERA+)
Mike Mussina ( 270 wins, 123 ERA+)
That’s it. What does this tell me? That Andy Pettitte is a serious HOF candidate (I actually thought he was still in that “on the outside looking in” category, until this discussion). Also, that his ERA really isn’t as high as people think, because the era hasn’t to be taken into consideration.
That’s what I thought, Chas … In my initial question on this I tried to subjectively take Pettitte’s era (juiced ball and batters, plus the AL) into account. You’ve confirmed it with objective data … really like that ERA+ stat … very useful !
What was Maddux’s ERA+ ???
Maddux’s was 132. Here’s the complete list:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/earned_run_avg_plus_career.shtml
Wally is now a SABR geek.
Chas – what are the chances of you doing a SABR series in the off-season?
I’d love to, but I always seem to bite off more than I can chew…so to speak.
What do you have in mind? Explaining different types of SABRmetrics, or doing articles based on that type of statistical analysis?
It’s the return of Jeffery Maier!
Oh my that was ridiculous.. It is like the umpires are afraid to be booed out of the Bronx.
I think Girardi took the over, judging by his decision to bring Mitre into this game.
I think Curt Schilling said it best. There is nothing better in life than to hear 60K Yankees fans STFU. Or something to that effect.
Chas – HELMET STICKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hahahahaha
Nice call, Chas! In a number of ways.
Talk about a bad name for a pitcher … Mitre (pronounced “meat-tray”). No wonder they pounded him. Same for that reliever with Tampa … “Balfour”. Not gonna have stellar pitching careers with names like that.
If you told me prior to yesterday’s game, that the Yankees would get five innings out of Burnett, I would have said series tied 2-2. The late-inning Yankee implosions are absolutely confounding.
Chas – I am going to give that comment the obligatory 6-month waiting period before I evaluate it as the funniest one-liner I have read on this site.
I have to disagree with Boog here. I’d say there’s nothing better than hearing Curt Schilling STFU.
I would like to thank everyone for using abbreviations and helping to keep this a family site.
This is not an effort to encourage rampant use of abbreviations. 🙂
The Schilling comment reminds me of something I was thinking of yesterday. Remember when the Red Sox bench players wrote “Lil-ly” on the backs of their jackets in an effort to encourage the fans to taunt him? To me, there is nothing more bush league than players interacting with fans in a negative way. Schilling’s comments in the press aren’t quite as bad as the Lilly situation, but it was unprofessional nonetheless.
I realize today that I am happy I DON’T have DVR. Because if I did, I would have lost sleep last night replaying Burnett’s reaction to Molina’s home run. That was priceless. It would have sat there with the remote in hand replaying that one over and over and over again. Each time giggling like one of Bill’s kids on a Wal-Mart trip. At this point, I don’t care if the Yankees come back to win this series. Seeing that little temper tantrum made it all worthwhile.
I was surprised that Burnett didn’t throw the rosin bag into center field after the Molina home run.
Is it just me, or does Josh Hamilton look like he is swinging a wiffle bat?? It looks like he barely swings and the ball is in the right field bleachers.
One blessing that might come from the Texiera injury for the Yankees – moving Robinson Cano to the #3 hole. I know Girardi was probably pandering to Tex and A-Rod, but Cano has been by far the Yankees best hitter in the playoffs. Well Cano and Curtis Granderson have been the best hitters for the Yankees.
But why Girardi hasn’t done anything before this to jump start the lineup – I didn’t understand. The injury might be the best thing for them.
Good point, Smitty. I think, for much of the year, the reason Girardi didn’t move Cano to the #3 spot was to avoid putting that kind of pressure on him. I’m sure it was also to show faith in Teixeira (or to pander to him, whatever you call it), but I think it was mainly to ease Cano into a larger role. Last year, he usually batted 6th or 7th, sometimes even 8th.
Also, Cano batting 5th provides protection for A-Rod, I suppose.
Chas – I agree with you on the reason for Girardi not making the move, however you can make the argument that Texiera or A-Rod hitting in the 5th spot is protection in the lineup as well.
But how much kid gloves treatment does Cano need? He was hitting like this late last year and has really taken off this year- much to my chagrin as it has made the Yankees lineup that tougher. Tex and A-Rod have had respectable seasons – just not seasons you would usually put up against their track records.
My point is that the Yankees limped into the playoffs – why not try the move during September?