By Wally
We’re less than 2 weeks away from the 2010 college football season kick-off, and the Irish start the season by taking on Purdue Sept 4 at Notre Dame Stadium. So of course ND fans everywhere are engaging each other in the annual August ritual of voicing either expectations or “hopes” for the upcoming season. And as usual, NDNation.com has run their annual “probability poll” in which thousands of Irish followers take 10 minutes to assess ND’s chances of winning each game on the schedule as a % likelihood of winning. (For instance, I may think the Irish have a 40% chance of winning the USC game this year). This year, over 7,000 folks participated, including yours truly, and the consolidated results are in. Here are the key take-aways from the poll:
- On average, fans expect 8.5 wins this year and think there’s a 1% chance of going undefeated and a 2% chance of finishing with 1 loss.
- At the most optimistic (highest responses garnering at least 10%) fans expect 10.2 wins this season and think there’s a 13% chance of going undefeated and an 18% chance of finishing with 1 loss.
- At the most pessimistic (lowest responses garnering at least 10%) expect 7 wins this season and think there’s almost zero chance of finishing the season undefeated or with one loss.
There seem to be four levels of opponents:
- The coin tosses (<60%): Michigan State, Pittsburgh and USC
- The slight favorites: Utah, Stanford, BC and Michigan.
- The solid favorites: Purdue, Navy.
- The heavy favorites: Army, Tulsa, and Western Michigan.
So it looks like ND followers generally expect the Irish to go somewhere between 8-4 and 9-3 this year. Personally, I believe my own risk-weighted assessment would put it at 7-5 to 8-4 … somewhat less optimistic than the overall summary. While I think ND will pound Army, Tulsa and Western Michigan … similar to the poll … I just don’t see any other games where the Irish should be “prohibitive favorites”. Instead, I see 9 games that are coin flips added to 3 “sure wins”. My view is based on: 1) the team’s performance in the most recent seasons; 2) introducing an inexperienced Quarterback (Dayne Crist) and 3) a new coaching staff. While I view Brian Kelly and the new coaching staff as a positive thing overall, I think that’s offset by the loss of Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate for this first season under Kelly. What MIGHT push the Irish to the 8 win plateau is a pretty favorable schedule. Only 4 Irish opponents are ranked near or higher than ND (USC, Pitt, Stanford & Utah), but this is only on paper before anyone has played a game. Depending on the poll, the Irish enter week 1 somewhere in the #32-35 range, which I think is largely driven by Kelly’s presence on the job. Absent that, I believe ND would not be getting any votes at all.
There is quite a bit of talent on this team … and a lot of it fairly experienced … so Kelly is not starting from scratch. Crist’s development will be one of the keys to the season, in addition to Kelly changing the culture and converting these underachievers into winners. His track record in this regard is outstanding, so why not believe it can happen again? For that reason, I’ll be EXTREMELY disappointed with anything less than 7 wins. But … similar to the past few seasons, I worry about the defense and special teams. If Kelly & Co can fix the basic tackling problems we’ve seen under Weis, maybe 8-9 wins is possible. Time will tell … start your engines.
What does the Bench see for the Irish this year??
Put me in the 1% group. This cockeyed optimist is thinking undefeated season. Games I am most worried about; Pitt, Utah, and, despite the sentiment of others, Tulsa. Lane Kiffin is a big plus for anyone on USC’s schedule. Purdue, Michigan and MSU should be wins, even if not blow-outs. I am sooo convinced that Brian Kelly is IT! I have not felt that way since the hiring of Holtz. Weis brought in talented players; many of them are still there. Mantei Te’o is a playmaker on defense. I think Nd can perform on both sides of the ball. GO IRISH!
wazlly, what game(s) are you coming for?
Sorry for the typo on your name. Hit post before I re-read!
Pete —
Settle down, bro! You have definitely been drinking the Blue & Gold Kool-Aid. Need I remind you that even the great Lou Holtz was something like 7-5 his first year under the Dome? Need I also remind you that ND lost to Michigan last year and needed last second miracles to pull out wins vs Mich State and Purdue? Hello … anyone home? I love the optimism, but …. I just don’t want to see you crash and burn.
Unfortunately, I won’t be on campus this fall. Couple other priorities this season: moving into a house currently under construction in late Oct/ early Nov. Also it’s time again for us to visit my eldest at Boise State (Sep 25 vs Oregon St) and make several appearances to see #2 daughter at Texas A&M (Mizzou, Tex Tech, Oklahoma and Nebraska). Will try my best to get to a ND game in 2011.
Holtz actually 5-7 I think. My enthusiasm remains unbridled, nevertheless. I have crashed and burned so many times already after jumping on bandwagons for coaches I had so many reservations about before their first game/season. I may as well set myself up from the git-go on this one. I have conceded that if Kelly can’t get it done at ND, it can’t be done. For the first time since 1997 I am just a fan; no time spent critiquing the coaching staff. If we win, I’m elated. If we don’t, I AM ND! Enjoy your travels. Sounds like some great games on your agenda. I am so hoping Boise State is in the BCS championship game (vs ND of course)!
Holtz 5-6
Didn’t “Losing”ham and Weis start out winning a bunch of games in their first seasons?
For ND this year, some may feel I’m overly optimistic. However this year I see 8-9 wins coming from ND and I would be willing to go as far to say we beat all 3 Michigan teams that we play. Kelly leading the way with his stellar coaching, which causes mounds of support going into 2012 and the recruiting class of 2012 will be much better then this years class which was thrown together all in Kelly’s brief stint to this point, as many recruits left due to the Weiss firing. Playing Miami in 2012 will also be incredibly beneficial, especially if ND wins. All those Florida recruits will slowly become exposed to the Golden Domers. Same thing will begin to happen with Texas based recruits when that series becomes relevant. ND is surely on the rise. This season is going to be a fun one for the fans to watch.
Casey —
Yes, “Losingham” and “UnWeis” both had pretty good first years. Then they crashed and burned. We don’t want a flash in the pan coach … we want someone who’ll be strong for a decade+ and create a winning culture. I think Kelly is that guy … obviously Pete does too.
Mike —
I don’t think many recruits left because UnWeis was fired. But Clausen and Tate left for the draft. Clausen left early. I actually think Kelly did very well on what he signed in February … a top 20 class for sure … probably a bit better than that. He’s off to a fantastic start on next year’s class.
Casey, Losingham and UnWeis definitely had good first years. That’s why I jumped on their bandwagons after initial first doubts and hesitations. Losingham started with 8 straight wins, nearly tying Ara’s best ever start by an ND coach. Weis lost early to MSU at ND (my wife’s fault, she called me on my cell during the game – I was at the stadium – that broke a long-standing family tradition of no calls during games. ND’s comeback rally stopped when I answered that call and fell just short). Weis did not lose again until the Bush Push. That game was his “signature win”, and it also was his undoing. He left that game thinking he was a brilliant college coach and never again put in the kind of effort it takes to become a really good coach. Now, I am on Kelly’s bandwagon from the beginning. The comparisons to Frank Leahy are phenomenal. Boston Irish Catholic who had success at the D1 level prior to ND, including taking a virtually unknown program (BC) to a high national ranking. Leahy went 9-0-1 in his first season, garnering a #3 ranking. the next year he went 7-2-2, but still ended up #6. In 1943 he started what became an ND tradition of sorts; he won a national championship in his 3rd season. This tradition was carried on by Ara, Devine, and Lou. So, I am looking for a top 5 ranking this year, a slight drop-off next (but a Hesiman winner like Tim Brown was for Lou – I am guessing Michael Floyd), followedin 2012 by ND’s first national championship since 1988. The only reason I might see the national championship coming a year early is the double digit tradition; champs in ’66, ’77, and ’88. ’99 was of course a lost cause, with Boob Davies (mispellings intentional) at the helm. But here we are, on the eve of the next double digit year. Which tradition will Brian kelly follow?
First of all, ND has talent and will continue to get talent. I’m talking consistently Top 15 talent at least, but I think it will eventually be solidly Top 10 under Kelly. (It’s hard to always be Top 5, but winning gives you a chance at that). ND “should” win … if the coaching is good. I’m talking consistently 9-3, 10-2 or better some years. You “should” be there when you consistently get top 15 talent or better.
So it boils down to coaching and motivation … this is where UnWeis and Losingham failed. It’s about blocking, tackling and most importantly, ATTITUDE. The players have got to want to block and tackle and sacrifice themselves for the team. We haven’t seen these 3 things done well at ND … since Holtz was there. I believe we will see it under Kelly. I sincerely don’t think ND will be 10-2 this year … mainly because Crist is just getting his feet wet, but I think we’ll see a distinct difference in intensity and fundamentals. I do think we’ll see many 10-2 or better years if Kelly sticks around for 8 years or more. Let the games begin!
Note on Boise State … that team executes with military academy-type precision with players who the “big programs” don’t want. This is Exhibit A that it can be done with great coaching and so-so talent. Actually, as has been pointed out by several folks, Kelly has an outstanding track record for excellence with so-so talent leading up to this job with ND. Just look at what Cinci has done lately.
I brought up “Losing”ham and Weis because they grabbed that initial momentum and ran with it. Can Kelly follow suit? And then keep it going for the long run? I’m thinking he has the talent (as Pete mentioned) to get a quick start, and the coaching sense to keep it going.
Casey —
If Dayne Crist can do a good Kevin McDougal (’93) impersonation, this season will likely be a very good one. For those too young to remember, McDougal was a senior QB who never started a game and really didn’t see any meaningful playing time until that ’93 season. But it was a great season for the Irish and McDougal, except for the unfortunate outcome of that BC game in November (Bercich!). ND finished ranked #2 behind the same Florida State squad that they beat in South Bend … also in November. That national title was Boobie “Bumfuzzled” Bowden’s career appreciation gift … and, yes, I’m still quite bitter.
Wally – you are in my head. McDougal (what a great Irish man 🙂 ) is exactly who I was thinking.
So, we are anywhere from 8 wins to 14 wins (that’d be me)! GO IRISH! God may not like ND best (according to BC people) but HIS MOTHER DOES (according to Holtz in one of the more awesome comebacks of all time)! I just believe that “divine intervention” has been at rest too long. Thanks to guys like Boob Davies (who thought miracles wouldn’t come from the sky to save ND – DUH!), UnWeis (who was too arrogant to think he needed it), and Losingham (who didn’t care enough), a lot of that intervention has been stockpiled. Kelly uses ALL his resources. He’ll be looking for some miracles. It’s what ND football is all about.
I was just reminded of the quote of a great JV basketball coach at Spencerport Schools (by one of his former players who is living at my house temporarily):
“Luck is when opportunity meets preparation!” That is the mantra for ND football under Brian Kelly. “Divine intervention” will be part of the game plan because the Ts will be crossed and the Is dotted. This coaching staff will prepare the team to capitalize on opportunities and the luck of the Irish will finish the task when necessary. I’m sticking with my prediction – 14 wins! I’ll wave to y’all as I fly by in my freefall!
Pete —
14 wins would indeed be a miracle, especially since that is more games than possible in one season. We “only” need 13 wins to earn the national title. (Unless of course you’re counting a victory over USC as two wins) 😉
Oh lord. Someone is looking for copyright infringement because I definitely stole that one.
“Great?” Can a JV coach be “Great?” 🙂
Yes, Casey, the standard for “great” is merely lower at the JV level. Congrats!
I thought it was 13 regular season games now.
Pete — below is ND’s schedule of 12 regular season games. However, I’ll grant you a mulligan since many winners of the major conferences also play in a conference championship game (the 13th game) before going to a BCS bowl (14th).
1. S04 PURDUE 3:30pm NBC
2. S11 MICHIGAN 3:30pm NBC
3. S18 @ Michigan St. 8pm ABC
4. S25 STANFORD 3:30pm NBC
5. O02 @ Boston College TBA
6. O09 PITTSBURGH 3:30pm NBC
7. O16 WESTERN MICHIGAN 2:30pm NBC
8. O23 @ Navy (NJ) Noon CBS
9. O30 TULSA 2:30pm NBC
10. N13 UTAH 2:30pm NBC
11. N20 ARMY (Yankee Stadium) 7pm NBC
12. N27 @ Southern Cal 8pm ABC