By Wally
Here’s a very interesting Q&A perspective on the future of College Football conferences written by Pete Fiutak of College Football News:
Q: I consider myself a relatively sane and rational person. So why is it that I’m having a hard time believing that Big Ten expansion talk is that big a deal? Many are predicting Armageddon, but I’m just not seeing it. Is this all really going to happen? – NR
A: Yeah, it’s really going to happen, but I can see where you’re coming from. The crazy part about all the speculation is that the Big Ten hasn’t actually done anything concrete, yet the mere speculation of what it might do has set in motion a whirlwind of chaos.
Big Ten head honcho, Jim Delany, would never, ever, ever let the word “expansion” come out of the mouths of anyone associated with the league without there being some teeth behind it. This is going to happen, but the big question is going to be how the dominoes fall and how the Big Ten wants to reinvent itself. Of course, the other question will be if the league actually keeps its name.
Q: Give me the odds of the Big Ten expanding to 12 teams, 14, and 16. – BH
A: I’d make it a 7-to-1 shot that the Big Ten goes to 16, 10-to-1 of going to 14, and 100-to-1 of taking on just one team. The league might stagger the expansion a bit, sort of like the ACC did, and it could bring in one team now and two to four more later after more research and negotiation. Unless it’s Texas or Notre Dame (and it won’t be), bringing in just one team isn’t going to cut it at this point; Delany will make a splash and won’t settle for a ripple. With so many schools lining up to join the fun, adding five more will be easy and the Big Ten can pick and choose to create the right fit … and make the most money.
Q: When all the dust settles, who’s going to be in the Big Ten and how will it be aligned? – JG
A: If all the inside info really is true, I’ll be shocked if the Big Ten doesn’t go to 16, and there’s just no way it’ll only go to 12. Fourteen is a possibility if there’s a backlash or if there’s a change of heart from some schools that appear to be locks, but it appears that the Big Ten will likely have two divisions of eight teams.
In the pecking order of schools on the Big Ten radar, it goes Rutgers (this expands the Big Ten further into the New York City market and pushes the league out to the Atlantic Ocean), Missouri (mediocre academics are a problem, but the St. Louis and Kansas City markets and a natural tie-in with Illinois will help), Nebraska (the TV market isn’t a plus, but the football program adds luster), Syracuse (basketball, basketball, basketball), Connecticut (basketball, basketball, basketball … remember, Delany has a hoops background), and with Pitt (big city, natural geographic tie-in with Penn State and Ohio State) in the mix.
EAST: Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
WEST: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
If it goes to 14, the Big Ten will probably end up being …
EAST: Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
WEST: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
Q: Since when does the Big Ten have so much power? It’s not even the best football conference, and in most years it’s not even second-best? What am I missing? – PT
A: It’s not just about the win-loss records on the field. It’s about money, academics, prestige and more money.
To understand why Big Ten expansion is such a big deal, you need to try to grasp just what a monster the conference is when it comes to history and reputation. While the SEC might be the best football conference, without question, and the Big East
and ACC might be the current stars in basketball, the Big Ten is the club almost everyone wants to be in (unless you’re a filthy rich school like Texas or Notre Dame).
The Big Ten has everything in its favor between the combination of geographic reach, the right TV times, the mega-stadiums, the gigantic alumni bases and the educational reputation. While a lot of that might be more bluster than fact, the dollars generated by the league and the academic rankings are the real deal. It’s also a big help to have the right TV markets with Chicago (No. 3), Philadelphia (No. 4), Detroit (No. 11), Minneapolis (No. 15), Cleveland (No. 17), St. Louis (No. 21), Pittsburgh (No. 23), and Indianapolis (No. 25) all counted in the Big Ten TV equation. Throw New York (No. 1) and Boston (No. 7) into the mix, when the ACC and Big East games aren’t taking up the prime Saturday day part, add to the equation the early ESPN games from coast-to-coast and the expansion of the Big Ten Network, and throw in the nation’s No. 32 (Columbus), 34 (Cincinnati) and 35 (Milwaukee) TV markets, and the league’s exposure is unparalleled.
Q: Is the Big 12 really that bad? Why do all the Big 12 teams seem to want to jump ship to other leagues? Why wouldn’t the Big 12 do some sort of a preemptive strike and try to take away Big Ten teams? – TY
A: If you’re outside of a Big 12 city, good luck finding a mid-level conference game on a normal October Saturday. The exposure isn’t nearly as big as the Big Ten gets, the academics aren’t even close, and schools like Missouri are tired of not getting any sort of a spotlight, or the dollars, compared to Texas and Oklahoma. Oh, and the conference doesn’t get the bowl money compared to the mid-level Big Ten teams. It’s not like Mizzou would be the shining star in the Big Ten, but at least it would be getting paid better and it would upgrade the educational side. It’s not like Iowa and Michigan State are going Ivy League soon, but they have far better academic reputations than almost everyone in the Big 12.
Q: Alright, give it to me straight. How much longer does my beloved Big 12 have to live? – TO
A: Not long in its current form, but it won’t go away like the Big East might. Consider Missouri and Nebraska gone to the Big Ten, Colorado might go to the Pac-10, and there’s a chance that Texas someday goes independent, becomes another Notre Dame, and forms its own Texas Sports Network with the monster baseball and basketball programs getting the coverage of the football team. There will still be a Big 12, but it’s not going to have the look and feel of the past decade.
Q: It’s 2020. What are all the conferences going to look like? – MR
A: Sooner than later, I foresee a day when the little guys are squeezed out completely and moved to another division. Eastern Michigan just can’t compete with Michigan when it comes to attendance, funding or every other way a you want to compare football programs. The big boys are going to realize the money to be made by creating an uber-division of elite teams and conferences, and the Big Ten is getting the ball rolling now. After all the dust settles from expansion and realignment, here’s my best guess (with the new schools in each league in bold) for how the college football world will look ten years from now …
ACC – Boston College, Cincinnati, Duke, East Carolina, Florida State, Maryland, Memphis, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, UCF, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia
Big Ten – Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big 12 – Baylor, BYU, Colorado State, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, SMU, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, Utah
Pac-10 – Arizona, Arizona State, Boise State, California, Colorado, Fresno State, Nevada, Oregon, Oregon State, San Diego State, Stanford, UCLA, UNLV, USC, Washington, Washington State
SEC – Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, Louisville, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina, South Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
The Big East will dissipate with all its top teams being swallowed up, meaning there will be five mega-conferences with 16 teams each. That would make an upper-level division of 80 teams with Notre Dame staying independent and remaining in the BCS mix.
Army and Navy, all MAC and Sun Belt teams, six current WAC teams (Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Utah State), two Mountain West teams (Air Force and Wyoming), and seven Conference USA teams (Marshall, Rice, Southern Miss, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, and UTEP), will create a mid-level division between the current FBS and FCS. They’ll have the ability to play the upper-division teams and with bowl tie-ins, but they won’t have the legal ability to be eligible for the BCS.
Q: I don’t get it. Why wouldn’t Notre Dame jump at the chance to be in the Big Ten? Aren’t they going to eventually end up joining? – FF
A: Beyond the non-revenue sport aspect, why would Notre Dame want to join any conference? It has the biggest brand name in college athletics, and possibly all of sports, it has its own network setup with NBC, has a sweetheart of a BCS deal (needing to finish in the top eight to get an automatic berth and getting $1.3 million every year no matter what, compared to the $100,000 Army and Navy receive), and it gets to keep all of its bowl money. Why would the school want to share a dime with anyone else?
Notre Dame is loaded. The school’s endowment took a major hit in the current economy yet it’s still speculated to be over $6 billion. Of the schools in the FCS, only Stanford, Texas, Michigan, Northwestern, and Texas A&M are richer. Notre Dame doesn’t need money, it doesn’t need to lessen its national profile or football brand name by joining the Big Ten, and it doesn’t need to take a chance on being an also-ran when 10-2 all but guarantees a BCS bid and 9-3 makes it close. The school might want to be a part of the Big Ten for the other sports and the academic tie-ins, but that’s not enough.
There’s also the problem of the Big Ten not necessarily wanting Notre Dame. To get the Irish, the Big Ten would have to bend over backwards and come up with a special deal to take into account the financial football sacrifice the school would likely make by joining. If the Big Ten gives Notre Dame a bigger piece of the pie, then Ohio State would likely throw a hissy fit about wanting its own deal with the league, considering it’s been doing most of the heavy lifting football-wise over the last several years. To make a long answer short, it’ll take something special for Notre Dame to join the Big Ten.
Q: After the Big Ten expands, does that mean we’re closer to a playoff? – DM
A: Nope. Unfortunately, conference expansion might do even less to bring a playoff since the money will be so impressive and so great that the commissioners aren’t going to want to do anything to mess with the cash cow. If there’s a playoff in the next decade, it’s not likely going to have anything to do with expansion.
Let’s just assume that Notre Dame joins the Big 10 with two other teams, giving the league 14 teams in total, with two 7-team divisions. ND would be required to play 6 Big 10 division games every year, which would leave them the freedom to play 5 or 6 non-conference games against their traditional non-midwest foes like USC, Stanford, Navy, etc. Doesn’t sound so bad given they already play at least 3 Big 10 teams every year (Michigan, Mich St, Purdue) … and maybe they’d be in the same division as Nebraska???
Now if the financial terms are “attractive”, I kinda like the theoretical set-up above … and even moreso, I like the idea of ND’s other sports (hoops, baseball, soccer, etc) being in the Big 10 instead of the Big East. I kinda quickly glossed over the financial bit, but make no mistake that the $$$ are a HUGE part of this decision … no surprise.
But as Pete Fiutak points out, with a “small student body” of only 8,000, an endowment of $6 Billion, and a VERY STRONG brand … Notre Dame doesn’t need to jump at this for financial reasons. The Irish are still holding a very strong hand of cards.
Am I reading this right? The Big East will cease to exist? I am trying to digest that and have it make sense. I suppose it could happen. Are we talking the Big East completely or just in football?
Casey —
Great question … and I think the answer would have to be “it depends”. I guess it will depend at least partly on where all the football teams get scattered to. But still, it’s hard to imagine the BE not being a basketball conference anymore. But … what if Pitt, UConn, Syracuse, Rutgers, Louisville and ND … just to name a few … join other huge conferences (like the Big 10 or ACC)?? Then the BE will be left with just a few basketball only schools like Georgetown, Marquette, St Johns, DePaul, Seton Hall, etc. It would be like “back to the future”. Maybe those schools would merge with the A10 or something like that for a hoops only conference.
I agree with a few of the question-askers and wonder what the big appeal of the Big 10 is anyway (or Big 11, as I like to call it). I’ve always thought of it as a mediocre conference. Mr. Fiutak makes some good points though- ones I hadn’t considered- especially in noting that decisions like this almost always come down to the all-mighty dollar. However, I think his timeline is a little off. In answering a question about what the CFB landscape will look like in 2020, he says “sooner rather than later” there will be a major realignment in which the smaller schools are “squeezed out”. I find this pretty hard to believe. He’s talking about a pretty radical shift. Am I to believe it’ll happen in 10 years? I doubt it…
Eric
Welcome to the Pine!
Everything comes down to the all-mighty dollar regardless of what it does for the game. Think about it – how does any of this improve the game of football?
Maybe one good thing (I did say “one”) about consolidation into a few “megaconferences” is that we’ll get more clarity as to who’s deserving to be in the national title game. I mean … if you get to a place where there are only 4 megaconferences … it’ll be harder to argue that the champions of those conferences aren’t the “real final four” of major college football. So if Boise State wins the conference title in the new “PAC 20”, then they deserve a shot in the national semi-finals against the winner of the new “Big 20 South& West”. Also, the winner of the new “MONSTER OF THE MIDWAY” Conference (formerly known as the Big 10) can play the winner of the new “ACCSEC” in the other national semi-final.
OK … it’s a reach, but who knows what it’ll look like in 10 years.
Well whatever happens, I hope that these “megaconferences” have the good sense to change their names when they add schools. I mean, am I the only one that’s bothered by the fact that the Big 10 has 11 teams? What’s that about? Tradition?
Tradition or not, it makes for a good punch line from time to time.
Some good insight from “The Sporting News” on what Notre Dame may be thinking during this conference expansion talk:
Why Notre Dame shouldn’t want the Big Ten (by Dave Curtis and Matt Hayes)
One of the most recognizable brands in sports, Notre Dame is not doing the chasing.
1. It relishes its independence—and can afford to. In sports, it’s all about the name. The Yankees. The Cowboys. And, yes, the Irish.
In a world built around television contracts, the sky couldn’t be bluer— or greener—for Notre Dame. When its deal with NBC expires in 2015, the school will have been playing its home football games exclusively on network television for nearly a quarter-century.
“And you know what?” former Notre Dame athletic director Gene Corrigan says. “If NBC decided they didn’t want to do it anymore, there would be people climbing over each other to get the next contract.”
There’s this misconception floating around that because Notre Dame hasn’t won a national championship since 1988, because the Irish haven’t won a major bowl game since a Cotton Bowl victory in 1994, the most loved (and hated) program in college football is losing leverage and is desperate for a conference marriage.
Nothing could be further from reality. No matter what you hear, the Big Ten is doing the chasing here. Not Notre Dame.
“People who make big decisions there firmly believe that Notre Dame’s greatest strength is its independence,” says Wisconsin athletic director and former Badgers coach Barry Alvarez, a Notre Dame assistant from 1987-89. “It’s a unique place in that respect.”
The Big Ten needs Notre Dame to keep pace with the SEC. It’s just that simple. And the Big Ten expansion talk is a way to make Notre Dame panic and think it needs the Big Ten just as much.
“It’s like Chicken Little,” former Notre Dame star Rocky Bleier says. “The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Well, is it?”
2. It already makes BCS money.
This issue could go either way, depending on whether the Irish are winning. If they are, there’s no doubt they want nothing to do with the Big Ten’s BCS arrangement.
In the Big Ten, the league splits the BCS bowl money equally among its teams—and the league earned $22.2 million last year because it had two teams in BCS bowls (it would have been $17.7 million with one team). That’s roughly $2 million per school in the current 11-team format.
Expansion, obviously, takes an even larger bite out of everyone’s BCS cut.
Meanwhile, as an independent, Notre Dame receives $4.5 million when it plays in a BCS bowl and $1.3 million when it doesn’t. The Irish’s old deal called for a full conference share if they reached a BCS bowl (although they received nothing if they didn’t), so renegotiating to something closer to the original deal always remains a possibility for an independent Notre Dame.
But that will only happen if new coach Brian Kelly makes the Irish a perennial BCS bowl contender again.
“That’s what it always comes down to,” former Notre Dame athletic director Kevin White says. “When you win, the opportunities and the future there are limitless.”
As a member of the Big Ten, the Irish would make slightly more in years without a BCS bowl appearance , but you don’t give up a century of doing things your own way for a few bucks.
“There’s nothing complicated about this formula,” Kelly says. “When it’s going good here, there’s not a better place in all of sports. From what you see on the field to how it impacts everywhere else, it’s why we’re here.”
3. Too much is unknown.
Look closely at the reasons Notre Dame should join the Big Ten. They all deal in speculation, a convergence of events that might or might not happen.
“Why overreact when there’s no need to?” former Notre Dame All-American quarterback Brady Quinn says.
Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick says the school must “stay on top of all the possibilities” that potential expansion could bring. He is being proactive, but there are simply too many ifs and not nearly enough facts surrounding the issue:
• The Big Ten believes it would make more money with its Big Ten Network if Notre Dame were onboard, but how much more would the Irish make if their home games would still be played on NBC and maybe one of their games would be on the BTN?
Why Notre Dame should want the Big Ten
Is the Big Ten big enough?
• The Big Ten believes Notre Dame would be a huge factor in the next round of television contract negotiations, or even give the league leverage to renegotiate the current deal, according to a source close to the situation. But, as the source points out, ABC/ESPN isn’t going to tear up the current deal, which expires in 2016, to give the league more money.
• A new 14- or 16-team Big Ten could make more money, but it would also have three or five more mouths to feed. At what point does addition become subtraction when rationing off even pieces of the revenue pie?
“You’re talking about a potential radical change in the way things are done,” former Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese says. “With a lot of what-ifs out there.”
And so it’s been a month since this post was published with a prediction for the changing college football conference landscape. So what’s happened thus far? The Big 12 has lost 2 teams with Colorado jumping to the PAC 10 and Nebraska hopping over to the Big 10. Doesn’t that make the Big 12 the REAL Big 10 now???
Anyway, the big news today concerned what didn’t happen as Texas and Texas A&M decided to stay home with the other 8 Big 12 teams. I like that … I just couldn’t see these big Texas teams and Oklahoma playing in the PAC 10. Colorado … yes … they’re kinda flakey in that state anyway.
I think Nebraska made a very good move. Now, instead of butting heads and having to try outrecruiting Texas, OU, et al, all they have to do is out hustle Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, and Wisconsin as I predict they’ll be in the Big 10 Western division. How hard can that be??? And now they’re not lumped in with the academic knuckleheads at Colorado and Oklahoma.
This leaves the Big 12 ready and willing to expand to ….. 12. Ha! I think they’re dying to woo the sudden serious sports contender,TCU. The Horned Frogs have been a major force the last few seasons in the bowl scene … and hey, they just knocked off the Longhorns to earn a berth to Omaha for the CWS. Based in Forth Worth, it’s a natural fit. Then, they can hold auditions for that 12th slot. Will it be La Tech, Univ of Houston (former SWC power), SMU, UTEP, Colorado State, … ?
Now why hasn’t the PAC 10 gobbled up one of the hottest properties these days: Boise State. Maybe they will now, if BSU has an outclause and maybe didn’t sign the contract yet to move to the Mountain West.
So as of today, the Big East is still intact, although rumors still persist that the Big 10 wants Rutgers in order to get into that eastern TV market. I really don’t get that. Aren’t Big 10 alums EVERYWHERE, including the northeast?
And what of Notre Dame??? Still standing independently, holding cards close to vest. Saw a contrarian article the other day on NDNation suggesting the Irish should “exercise some leadership” and save the Big East. Simply join it for football to make their membership complete given that all their other sports are there already. Not a bad idea actually …. now is the time that the BE is very vulnerable and they would probably grant the Irish quite a few perks that they wouldn’t get otherwise …. like the retention of their own TV package, like the ability to continue playing 5 non-conference games vs national teams and their traditional rivals, like an out-clause after 3 years if it isn’t working out, like a huge inherent advantage that should lead to conference domination and almost always getting that guaranteed BCS bid. Is it worth it to the Big East to save football? You betcha!
Let us know what you think the next big moves are across the CFB landscape.