By Paul Gotham
When it comes to winning a national championship, Bill Self knows there is very little margin for error. In an interview earlier this week, the Kansas coach talked about the difference between winning and losing in March. His conclusion is that it comes down to one possession.
That is as small a margin as it can be.
The Midwest Region makes the margin even smaller.
If nothing else, the region boasts the best coaching resume of all four regions. Eight teams have coaches with Final Four experience: Self, Tom Izzo, Lon Kruger, Gary Williams, Steve Fischer, John Thompson III, Paul Hewitt, and Thad Matta.
Compare that resume to the East with three – John Calipari, Rick Barnes, and Bob Huggins; the South with four – Mike Krzyzewski, Rick Pitino, Mike Montgomery, and Jay Wright, and the West with three – Jim Boeheim, Tubby Smith, and Billy Donovan.
Indeed, the margin for error is tiny.
Add to that the fact that both of the teams who beat Kansas during the regular season (Tennessee and Oklahoma State) are in the Midwest. Granted, the Volunteers and Cowboys are on the other side of the bracket.
All that being said, it is Kansas’s region to lose. Oh sure, the Jayhawks could stumble.
UNLV or Northern Iowa could throw a scare into the Jayhawks. UNLV gets pressure on the ball, and, at the same time, they value possession. The Rebels rank in the top 15 of the country in assists, assists to turnover, and turnover margin. That all looks good on paper until a team has to play at the speed Kansas will dictate.
Remember this, Kansas is fifth in the country scoring 82 a game. Their field goal percentage defense is third in the nation. At the same time, the Jayhawks’ three-point percentage is fifth. Kansas can beat a team in many ways.
Northern Iowa could put up a fight. This is the Panthers second consecutive trip to the Dance and third in the last five years. Jordan Eglseder could bang with Cole Aldrich and get the Jayhawk center in foul trouble. But can the rest of Northern Iowa compete?
The only way to beat Kansas is to forfeit the offensive glass to get back on defense. Playing a zone is probably necessary, but a team has to be prepared to defend the three-point arc.
An undermanned Tennessee team played zone and caught the Jayhawks on an off day. Oklahoma State played a soft man to man. They denied dribble penetration. Oh yeah, they also shot the lights out – 60 percent from the field and 52 percent from the three point arc. Kansas is not unbeatable, but a team must have their best performance of the year to win.
Which takes us to the third round. Kansas could have a date with either Maryland or Michigan State. Both of these teams have the ability to slow down Kansas. They also have players unafraid to step up in the clutch – Greivis Vasquez and Kalin Lucas to start with.
While the Jayhawks are busy fending off all comers on their side, the Ohio State Buckeyes might skate through the bottom of the region. Of their possible match-ups in the first four rounds, only Georgetown could handle the physical play of the Buckeyes. Problem is, Georgetown gets very little, if any, production from their bench.
Match ups to die for: Maryland versus Michigan State. Vasquez and Lucas. Izzo and Williams. Whoa nellie!
Ohio State against Georgetown – Greg Monroe and Evan Turner on the floor at the same time would be special. Don’t forget it was a Georgetown team that reduced North Carolina to an average team a couple of years ago. Thompson III gets his kids to commit to the cause. They don’t have much of a bench, but they can play defense. Well, at least if it comes down to the final seconds and Georgetown has a lead, the Hoyas probably won’t let Turner get a running start at a buzzer beater. Georgetown will probably do the smart thing and at least make him change hands with the dribble or something. Not that I am criticizing Michigan or anything.
Kansas and the winner of the Maryland / Michigan State game. Izzo and Williams both have plenty of tricks in the bag.
Kansas and Ohio State – suddenly the Jayhawks don’t look so invincible.
Players to watch:
Evan Turner (Ohio State) – what else can be said.
Kawhi Leonard (San Diego State) – The freshman had 20 rebounds in the MWC final. The Aztecs may onlyy be around for a game, so catch him while you can.
Derrick Favors (G Tech) 6’10” freshman moves like he is 6’6″ and rebounds like a seven footer. An early pick for 2010 pre-season All Casey.
What to look for: Two Big Ten teams in one region spells trouble for the Jayhawks. If the first one doesn’t get them, the second one will. Izzo has been playing possum with his kids all year long. It’s March. This is Spartan time. MSU will get the upset, but Ohio State will advance.
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