Xavier – Butler: Tale of the Tape

By Paul Gotham

Setting: With final exams in the rear view mirror, it’s the Atlantic 10 versus the Horizon League at the Hinkle Field House as Chris Mack’s Xavier Musketeers (6-3) come a calling on Brad Stevens and his #21 Butler Bulldogs (7-3).

Plot: Both teams are coming off big wins. Butler toppled Ohio State, 74-66 while Xavier knocked off Cincinnati in double OT, 83-79. The game will prove important come Selection Sunday when the committee doles out seeds.

Sub-plots: Xavier and Butler represent two of the most successful college basketball programs of the last decade. From 2000-09 Butler holds a winning percentage of .729 – 12th in the nation. Xavier earns the 14th spot at .727.  Butler and Xavier are two of nine schools to win 25 or more games each of the last three seasons. The schools combined for 14 NCAA Tournament appearances during the ten-year span. Xavier reaching the Elite Eight twice with one Sweet Sixteen appearance. Butler advanced to the Sweet Sixteen twice.

Flashback: The two teams were rivals in the former Midwestern Collegiate Conference.  Xavier leads the series, 28-15. Butler toppled Xavier at the Cintas Center last year, 74-65. Last time the two met at Hinkle was the 1998 season-opener. Xavier won, 73 – 66.

Tone: Both teams are proving their worth. Butler has played four ranked opponents: Georgetown, Clemson, Minnesota, Ohio State. Xavier’s upcoming non-conference schedule includes, LSU, Wake Forest, and Florida.

Conflict: Xavier is 6-0 when scoring 70 or more. When holding opponents under 70, the Muskies are 5-1. Butler averages 69.7 points a game. Xavier ranks 11th in the country hitting 42.7% (70-164) from behind the arc. Butler has held opponents to 35% (60-171) on three pointers.

Terrell Holloway(13-32) and Jordan Crawford (20-45) lead Xavier’s starters from long range. Off the bench, Brad Redford leads the A10 at 52.8% (19-36).  Butler’s Ronald Nored will chase Holloway. Last week, Nored held Ohio State’s Jon Diebler to 7 points. Diebler entered the game averaging 17. Diebler did not score a field goal until the final two minutes of the game.

The 6’4″ Crawford will square off with Willie Veasley. This should be an interesting match up. Crawford averages 18ppg, but he struggled Sunday when having to slow down Cincinnati’s Lance Stephenson. If Xavier is to return to the NCAA Tournament, they will need Crawford to respond to assignments such as this. On Sunday, Crawford was caught up in the one on one battle instead doing what was best for the team. Veasley only averages 8.9ppg but is capable of more. The senior scored 15 against Ohio State.

Shelvin Mack and Dante Jackson comprise the remaining perimeter match up. If allowed, Jackson can get hot. He opened the Crosstown Shootout with a pair of trifectas. Mack averages 14.5ppg.

Inside the paint comes down to two premier players in the country: 6’8″ Matt Howard and 6’9″ Jason Love. Howard is a smooth player that will force Love off the block. Butler runs several offensive sets where Howard will catch the ball at the high post or beyond. Love will need to stay disciplined and out of foul trouble.

On the other hand, Love averages 11rpg including 19 against Cincy. When the ball goes up, Love is at his best.

Xavier’s Jamel McLean will have to keep pace with Gordon Hayward. The 6’9″ Hayward has scored double figures every game this season. But most of his work is done in the paint.  At 6’8″, McLean is difficult to keep off the boards. Hayward gives up 35 pounds in the match up.

Hayward and Howard combine for 29 a game. Xavier blocked 11 of Cincinnati’s shots. The X-Men average 5 per game. Love leads the way at 2.6.

Resolution: Redford, Kenny Frease, Andrew Taylor, and Mark Lyons give the Muskies an advantage off the bench. The 7’0″ Frease can only be used sparingly. He will not be able to chase either Howard or Hayward. But if Butler gets in foul trouble, expect to see Frease logging plenty of minutes.

Lyons is a jet – averaging 9ppg, 3apg, and 1spg.

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