by Paul Casey Gotham
Setting: Beale Street will be bopppin’ tonight as the Sweet Sixteen comes to Memphis. Mark Few brings his number 4 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (28-5) to town for a lip-smackin’ tilt with Roy Williams and the number 1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (30-4).
Make my pre-game meal bar-b-que chicken. Ooops! Scratch that. It’s Lent. I’ll wait until midnight for the meat. 🙂
Plot: Gonzaga is making their 11th consecutive tournament appearance and 12th overall. This is the fifth time the Bulldogs have barked their way to the Sweet Sixteen. In getting here the Zags beat Akron (77-64) and Western Kentucky (83-81).
On the other hand UNC is making their 41st tournament appearance and a NCAA record 23rd trip to the Regional Semi-Finals. The Tar Heels have won eight consecutive third round match ups. Their last loss came to Ohio State in 1992. UNC has advanced to the Elite Eight 23 times. Carolina opened the tournament with a 101-58 shellacking of Radford and then topped LSU, 84-70.
Flash back: Tonight’s game marks the first meeting between the schools in the Dance and second overall. Gonzaga beat UNC in the 2006 NIT Pre-Season tourney 82-74. The Zags limited then-sophomore, Tyler Hansbrough, to five shots from the perimeter and nine points with nine rebounds. Hansbrough has only been held to single-figure point totals eight of his 138 career games. Gonzaga shot 51% from the field that night.
Characters: Gonzaga will start:
Jeremy Pargo 6-2(10.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 5.0 assists, 1.4 steals) Matt Bouldin 6-5(13.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.5 assists, 1.6 steals) Micah Downs 6-8 (9.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.1 assists) Josh Heytvelt 6-11 (14.9 ppg, 6.7 rpg) Austin Daye 6-11 (12.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.1 assists)
North Carolina will counter with:
Ty Lawson 5-11 (16.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 6.5 assists, 2.0 steals)
Wayne Ellington 6-4 (15.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.7 assists, 1.1 steals)
Tyler Hansbrough, 6-9 (21.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 0.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks)
Danny Green, 6-6 (13.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.7 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.3 blocks)
Deon Thompson 6-8 (10.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 0.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.1 blocks)
On paper Gonzaga matches up with the Heels. Outside their conference schedule, where they went undefeated, the Bulldogs played an ambitious ledger including the likes of UConn, Maryland, Tennessee, Arizona, and Oklahoma State.
Daye can hang Thompson as can Heytvelt with Hansbrough. Bouldin should keep Ellington in check. Can Downs hang with Green?
Gonzaga’s depth might surprise a few people. Steven Gray, Demetri Goodson, and Ira Brown are capable of making significant contributions with limited minutes.
Then there’s Bobby Frasor. Will the Heel senior have another night where he takes over a game for a couple of minutes?
Climax: Pargo vs. Lawson. Pargo packs as much athleticism with basketball as does Lawson. If anyone can slow down Lawson, it is Pargo…at his best.
Which Jeremy Pargo will show up? The one that committed four turnovers and had zero assists in the first half at Knoxville. Or the Jeremy Pargo that came out in the second half of that non-conference battle and had six assists, four rebounds, a steal, and six points to lead Gonzaga to a come-from-behind road win.
Pargo possesses the goods to get the job done. Can he play within himself?
What will the Zags do? They make just under 40% of their shots from behind the arc. Usually that is a key ingredient to their success. But will they get open on the arc? Carolina was susceptible early in the season on the perimeter. Have they learned their lesson?
When UNC is at their best, there is no team in the country that can hang with them. Gonzaga cannot hope to win a track meet against the Heels. If they slow down the pace, will the Zags be able to get open looks late in the shot clock?
If Gonzaga can control the ball and make UNC play defense, how will the Heels be affected on offense?
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