by Doug Potter
Mr. Kincaid’s insightful article on the Big Ten has inspired me to do the same type of rundown on the Big East. The conference is full of bubble teams who need a couple signature wins down the stretch here in February. The bubble seems to get bigger and bigger each year with this season being no different. The “locks” in the conference are as follows: UConn, Pitt, Marquette, Villanova, Louisville, and Syracuse. Syracuse is in and will get in, but I’m very concerned with their lack of effort on the defensive end (given up 94+ pts three of last five games). As I see it, there are three levels to the bubble. Here are the teams in the Big East who still have hopes of “dancing” but still have work to do, some more than others.
Safely on the Bubble: West Virginia (18-8, 7-6 Big East)
RPI: 16
SOS: 5
Key Wins: @ Ohio State, @ Georgetown, Villanova, Providence, Notre Dame
Key Losses: Davidson, Kentucky
Forecast: The Mountaineers don’t really have any bad losses, but they also don’t have any marquee wins either. A couple quality wins will help them come selection time but they must land a big win to improve their stock. One thing to look at is that they are done with their grueling Big East schedule. They have 5 more conference games (@ Rutgers, @ Cincy, @ USF, DePaul, Louisville). That’s a relatively easy schedule compared to what this league is capable of. Important date: March 7th, ESPN College Gameday is coming to Morgantown to host Louisville and West Virginia. The Coliseum will be rockin! West Virginia will be in. An 8-10 seed is most likely where they will end up.
On the Bubble: Providence (16-10, 8-6 Big East)
RPI: 67
SOS: 52
Key Wins: Cincy (twice), Syracuse
Key Losses: @ Georgetown, Baylor, @ West Virginia
Forecast: Much like the Mountaineers, The Friars have relatively no big wins, but have beaten most of the teams that they “should’ve beaten.” They started out 6-2 in conference, but have dropped four of six and still have the tough tasks of Notre Dame, Villanova, and Pitt left of their final four games of the season. Providence will finish with nine or ten wins in conference and will need to win a few games in the Big East Tournament to be dancing in March. I say they get in barely and wrap up an 11 seed.
Cincinnati (17-9, 7-6 Big East)
RPI: 48
SOS: 25
Key Wins: Georgetown (twice), Notre Dame
Key Losses: Providence (twice), Florida State
Forecast: The Bearcats have won seven of their last ten but the next three games could make or break their season. Louisville and West Virginia come to town, then they travel to Syracuse before finishing with South Florida and Seton Hall. I feel they MUST win three of their last five games and win a game in the Big East Tourney to get in. I don’t think they will do it and Cincinnati will not make the tourney. A normal team with not enough quality wins.
Barely on the Bubble: Notre Dame (14-11, 5-8 Big East)
RPI: 75
SOS: 43
Key Wins: Texas, Georgetown, Louisville
Key Losses: St. John’s, Concy, West Virginia
Forecast: Many people look at the fact that the Irish lost seven straight during mid-season and say “wow they’re struggling!” But looking deeper, six of their seven losses were against teams that WILL make the tournament (Louisville, Syracuse, UConn, Marquette, Pitt, and UCLA) and the other loss was against a tourney hopeful team in Cincinnati. That being said, they couldn’t win ONE of those games?! They arguably have the best inside presence in 25 and 13 a night Luke Harangody, but with the inconsistent shooting of McAlarney, they can lose to anyone, or beat anyone. Barring a deep run into the Big East tourney, the Irish will miss out on the NCAA tourney.
Georgetown (14-10, 5-8 Big East)
RPI: 39
SOS: 1
Key Wins: Memphis, @ UConn, Providence
Key Losses: @ Notre Dame, West Virginia, @ Seton Hall, Cincy (twice)
Forecast: Georgetown has the best two wins of any bubble team (Memphis, @ UConn) but getting swept by Cincinnati doesn’t help. Their schedule has been the toughest in the nation and it appears to be wearing and tearing on the Hoyas. It doesn’t get any easier as they play Marquette, Louisville, and Villanova their next three games. They must win two of those games to have a shot at dancing. I believe somehow, someway, the 5-8 Georgetown Hoyas will find their way into the NCAA Tournament.
At 14-11, Notre Dame can lose only one more game and that’s it. If it comes before the BE tournament, then they better win the tournament. Otherwise, if they run the table for the rest of the regular season (doubtful!), then they can lose in the tourney. It’s “do every night or die” for the Irish at this point.
Start calling the Coroner … there will be several causes of death.
I only saw the second half of last night’s game. Here let me go into the kitchen, open the silverware drawer and grab a fork. Wally will you do the honors? I saw MacAlarney miss two open 3s. I could not believe my eyes.
Doug – I am liking your Mountaineers. They have a healthy blend of athleticism and basketball savvy. Ruoff and Butler make a nice combination on the offensive end. And every Huggins team plays defense. Even if he is one of the biggest jerks in the coaching ranks.
Game Day in Morgantown? Hmmmmm….what are the chances that a large sign with pickinsplinters.com on it could get into the view of the camera?
How about Providence with a 46-45 lead at half in Freedom Hall only to lose 94-76. Somebody get me a calculator.
Chew on this – Memphis is in line for a 2 seed. The Tigers who by virtue of one win over a ranked opponent (Gonzaga) and an incredibly soft conference schedule are moving up the ranks because teams from other conferences are knocking off each other.
First of all, Huggins is God here in Morgantown and everyone loves him regardless of his past. Also, next time you watch West Virginia, watch Ruoff on the defensive end, it’s a thing of beauty. His helpside defense, which is crucial in a successful man-to-man defense, is unbelievable. Huggins plays at least 80% man-to-man largely due to Ruoff’s efforts.
I will have a clever sign up on Gameday and that’s a good idea to have a little service announcement for the site! hahaha
We heard Huggins speak at a coaches’ clinic about 10 years ago. He was brutal. He blasted a couple of guys who asked questions that he thought were not worth his while. Plus he dragged Bruiser Flint threw the mud over and over again.