By Aaron M Smith
After another crazy day at work, I finally had a chance to surf the web and look for interesting stories. Manny turned down another offer that is leaving most Americans shaking their heads. Andrew Bynum is out 8-12 weeks, Barry apparently tested positive – 5 years later and Kurt Warner is considering retirement. Let’s stop on that last topic – Kurt Warner possibly retiring. After a thrilling Super Bowl game in which Warner was spectacular (except for one pass), the QB is thinking about riding off into the sunset and calling it a career. Which automatically brings up the next question – Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Fame candidate? If Warner does decide to call it a career, this topic will surely be debated for the next couple of months by reporters. As concerned sports fans, I believe it is our responsibility to help out the Nickelback-loving reporters and decide if Kurt Warner is in fact Hall of Fame material. Let’s take a look..
By now, we all know the story that is Kurt Warner – playing football at the University of Northern Iowa, was drafted by the Green Bay Packers in 1994, where he was released before the regular season started. Kurt turned to the AFL (Arena Football League ) in 1995, playing in the AFL until 1998, when he was signed by the St. Louis Rams. In 1998, Warner played for the Amsterdam Admirals of the NFL Europe and it wasn’t until 1999 that he was named the back up to Trent Green for the Rams. It was during the 1999 pre-season that Trent Green was injured, Warner stepped in and can anyone say “Wally Pipp” ? From 1999-2001, Warner was one of the elite Quarterbacks in the NFL:
1999 – 16 Games Started, 325 for 499, 4,353 yards, 41 TDs, 13 INTs
2000-11 Games Started, 235 for 347, 3,429 yards, 21 TDs, 18 INTs
2001 – 16 Games Started, 375 for 546, 4,830 yards, 36 TDs, 22 INTs
During the 3 year stretch, Warner was named MVP of the NFL twice, and also led the Rams to a Super Bowl victory in 1999 (Super Bowl XXXIV). Warner was named Super Bowl MVP in 1999, becoming only the 6th player to win both the league MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same year. Ironically, the first 5 (Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Emmitt Smith and Steve Young ) are all Hall of Fame residents.
The 2002 and 2003 were injury plagued years for Warner, as he suffered from a broken pinkie and a broken hand -eventually earning his release from the Rams. In 2004, Warner was signed by the Giants, where he proved to be nothing more then a seat warmer for then rookie, Eli Manning. Here are his stats from those years:
2002 – 7 Games Started, 144 for 220, 1,431 yards, 3 TDs, 11 INTs
2003 – 2 Games Started, 38 for 65, 365 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
2004 – 10 Games Started, 174 for 277, 2,054 yards, 6 TDs, 4 INTs
2005, brought a new dawn for Kurt Warner, as he signed with the Arizona Cardinals. In Arizona, he was quickly named the started by then Coach Denny Green. 2006 brought a familiar sight, as the Cardinals drafted their QB of the future – Matt Leinart. 2006 brought a share of the QB duties, as both Leinart and Warner took turns as QB for the Cardinals. The merry-go-round continued until Warner was named the starting QB by coach Ken Whisenhunt for the 2007 season and as we like to say it – the rest is history. Here are his stats from 2005 to present:
2005 – 10 Games Started, 242 for 375, 2,713 yards, 11 TDs, 9 INTs
2006 – 7 Games Started, 108 for 168, 1,377 yards, 6 TDs, 5 INTs
2007 – 14 Games Started, 281 for 441, 3,417 yards, 27 TDs, 17 INTs
2008 – 16 Games Started, 401 for 598, 4,583 yards, 30TDs, 14 INTs
Should Warner retire from NFL, he will leave with the second highest Completion Percentage, Career (65.75%), will own the 1st, 2nd and 3rd highest yardage totals in a Super Bowl game and will walk away with the most passing yards in Super Bowl games over a career (1,156). Overall the 182 career TDs and 28,591 pass yards are impressive. But let’s compare them against recent quarterbacks that have either recently retired or have been inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame:
Jim Kelly – 237 TDs, 35,467 yards passing, 0 Super Bowls
Steve Young – 232 TDs, 33,124 yards passing, 2 Super Bowls (1 as backup)
John Elway – 300 TDs, 51,475 yards passing, 2 Super Bowls
Troy Aikman – 165 TDs, 32,942 yards passing, 3 Super Bowls
So while his numbers stack up against Aikman, his numbers fall short of the other 3. Ultimately, his 1-2 record in the Super Bowl may hurt him, but his play in all 3 games was clutch. Which leads to the question – is Kurt Warner a Hall of Fame quarterback? For me, there was the period of dominance, followed by a string of years in which he struggled, followed by his rise back to the top. In my book, it is those down years that leave Kurt Warner just outside of the Hall of Fame. If Warner was to come back, play another 2 years at the level he played at in 2007 and 2008 – he would surely earn my vote. But right now – I don’t think he is in, but residing in the Hall of Very Good Players.
What do you say?
Great piece of analysis, Smitty! And this is a great question that has been talked about over the past week or so.
If pressed, I would have to say that, yes, Warner is HoF caliber. Other than how his numbers stack up against some other HoF QB’s as you’ve pointed out above and the fact that he is a two-time league MVP, my additional reasons are as follows: a) he played GREAT in three Super Bowls … or at least well enough to win, but his yardage and TDs speak for themselves; b) he transformed two down-trodden franchises (Rams and Cardinals) into Super Bowl teams; c) with the Rams, he helped change the game somewhat with the “Greatest Show on Turf” and d) if Joe Namath is in the HoF, then certainly Kurt Warner ought to be.
I hope he doesn’t retire, cuz I think the Cardinals will be very good again next year with him (not with Leinhart) and they need to have another good year to keep the positive mo going. He played great this year … no reason to think he can’t duplicate it one more time. It’s never easy to go to the SB in consecutive years, but I think AZ has a chance to do it again … but only if Warner stays.
Warner is on his way to the Hall.
He already has refs making an exception for him. How else can you explain that he can take off his helmet and get flagged. I would love to hear Ray Lewis go off on that one.