In the second part of this analysis, I’m going to look at the Hall of Fame resumes of a handful of borderline candidates.
First, though, I’ll admit that Tim Raines falls into the borderline category as well. Just because I think his credentials make him a fairly obvious choice doesn’t negate the fact that only one-quarter of the voting body of the Baseball Writers Association of America agreed with me last year. I suspect, and hope, that he’ll see at least a 10% increase in support this year, but there’s no way he’s going to jump from just under 25% to 75%. So, Rickey Henderson is the only absolute slam dunk on this year’s ballot.
Bert Blyleven
Pros: His 287 career wins are the second-most among modern Hall of Fame eligible pitchers; He ranks 5th all-time in strikeouts(3701), 9th in shutouts (60), 11th in games started (685), and 14th in innings pitched (4970); His 242 complete games mean that he went the distance in over one-third of his starts, in an era when this statistic was on the decline; He finished in the top 5 in the AL in ERA seven times, WHIP seven times, SO/9 IP nine times, strikeouts 13 times, shutouts nine times, SO/BB ratio 13 times, and ERA+ seven times; 339 career win shares (350 is considered to be the level at which a player is a pretty safe bet for enshrinement).
Cons: His 250 career losses are 10th all-time, and his .531 winning percentage ranks higher than only four current Hall of Fame starting pitchers; He only finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting four times in a 22-year career, with two third-place finishes being the closest he ever came; He was an All-Star only twice.
Andre Dawson
Pros: With a rare power-speed combination, he’s one of only three players in history with 400 career HR and 300 career SB; 8 Gold Gloves adds further to his credentials as an excellent all-around player; 1591 RBI, 1373 runs scored, 2774 hits, 503 doubles; 8 All-Star appearances; 340 career win shares.
Cons: His .323 career OBP would be lower than all but five Hall of Famers–Bill Mazeroski, Joe Tinker, Luis Aparicio, Rabbit Maranville, and Brooks Robinson–none of whom are in because of their offensive prowess; One MVP and two second-place finishes were his only seasons in the top 5.
Mark McGwire
Pros: 583 career HR (8th all-time), 1414 RBI; All-time leader in fewest at bats per home run–even lower than Babe Ruth; Named to 12 All-Star teams, six times as a starter; Career OPS+ of 162 (12th all-time); 342 career win shares.
Cons: Considered a somewhat one-dimensional player, although a career OBP of .394 does add a dimension to his power numbers; .263 career batting average; The dirty “S” word.
Jim Rice
Pros: A very strong prime of his career that included six finishes in the top 5 of MVP voting, 1451 RBI and a 128 career OPS+; Named to 8 All-Star teams, including four times as a starter; Finished in the top 5 in the AL in RBI seven times and slugging percentage five times, and first or second in HR five times; Led the AL in total bases four times; The much over-used “F” word. That is, the fear factor.
Cons: Career declined rapidly after the age of 33 and retired at 36, with only 382 HR and 2452 hits; Home/Road splits are not favorable, as he batted .320 with a .546 slugging percentage and a .920 OPS at home. On the road, he performed considerably worse (.277 BA, .459 SLG, .789 OPS), leading many to believe he benefited greatly from the friendly confines of Fenway Park; Considered a one-dimensional player, who was a below average outfielder with no speed; Led the league in grounding into double plays four times (8 times in the top five), and his career total of 315 is 6th all-time; Only 282 career win shares.
Alan Trammell
Pros: 7 seasons with an OPS+ of 120 or better is quite impressive for a shortstop; 6 All-Star selections and 4 Gold Gloves, at one of the most important positions on the field; 318 career win shares ranks him 14th all-time among shortstops, ahead of Hall of Famers Lou Boudreau, Pee Wee Reese, Joe Sewell, Dave Bancroft, Rabbit Maranville, Joe Tinker, Phil Rizzuto, Luis Aparicio and Travis Jackson.
Cons: .285 career batting average, with no cumulative statistics that reached any significant milestones (185 HR, 2365 hits); Only finished in the top 5 in MVP voting once and didn’t really shine statistically in any offensive category; Career OPS+ of only 110.
Who gets my vote: Henderson, Raines, Blyleven, Dawson, Rice.
I like the arguments for Trammell, and I believe he’s much closer than people realize, but he just doesn’t quite get over the hump for me. As far as McGwire is concerned, consider me one of those who wants a little more time to consider his candidacy. Based on the numbers, I would definitely vote for him, and I suspect I will eventually come to the realization that we need to base our decisions on what happened on the field. But, I’ve said before and I’ll say again, that I’m not going to spend any time in this column discussing that dirty “S” word, so I’m going to leave it at that.
Close but no cigar: Trammell, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Mark Grace, Harold Baines, David Cone, Tommy John, Jack Morris, Lee Smith.
I was going to do a pros and cons analysis of Dale Murphy as well, believing that he’s just as, or almost as, close as the five I discussed. But, for some reason, I just can’t get excited enough about him to offer that many legitimate points on the pro side.
Good players who aren’t HOFers: Jay Bell, Matt Williams, Ron Gant, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Jesse Orosco, Dan Plesac.
Lastly, and unfortunately, I predict that Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice will be the only players voted in by the BBWAA this year, with the latter receiving just enough of an increase in votes, in his final year of eligibility, to finally get him over the required 75%. Dawson and Blyleven’s support will increase just enough that their election within the next two or three years will be a realistic possibility.
Dawson should elected, 400-300 club and his defensive prowess should get him in.
Unfortunately, I do not think Mark Grace will make the HOF.
However, I still defiantly claim that Ron Santo deserves to be in the HOF!
Big Mac would get in the Hall if it weren’t for the ‘roids backlash. He is top 10 all time in HR’s, hit 70 in a year, and helped revitalize baseball’s popularity. But if you let McGwire in, shouldn’t you let Rose in as well?
While I believe that Andre Dawson should be in the Hall of Fame – I believe it is going to be awhile and maybe never if he gets in. I think the numbers merit induction – but I wonder how much of playing in Montreal is going to cost him.
First it cost him his knees, as he went from nearly a 30-30 man to a guy who could barely play in the OF and eventually was banished to the American League as a DH. Lastly, Chas – you talk about Top 5 finishes. I gotta believe that playing up in Montreal cost him exposure and probably MVP votes.
After all his one year of winning it, he was one of the few to win the award on a team with a losing record.
Hopefully the voters take the time to see what he did in Montreal and make their decision that way – as opposed to how many Top 5 finishes he had..
Z Dubbz: agree with you on Dawson, Grace and Santo, but not on the McGwire/Rose comparison. Rose is banned and, therefore, ineligible, so that’s out of everyone’s hands, except the commissioner. McGwire is not banned, so he’s being punished in the court of public opinion. I think they’re separate issues, but that’s all I’m going to devote to that subject.
Smitty: Dawson got 66% of the vote last year, so his outlook might not be as bleak as you think. As far as the MVP voting is concerned, I pointed that out, but I’m not sure how big a factor it is. From what I’ve read, everyone who’s voted against Dawson has said they just can’t get past his .323 OBP. As someone who’s pretty obviously into the more modern stats, I don’t think this is enough to keep him out, but that number does make me cringe a little.
By the time you read this, you probably already know that Rice got in. I’m happy for him, but disappointed that Dawson and Blyleven’s votes only increased a little, and pissed that Raines’ support went down.
Here’s the voting results:
Rickey Henderson – 94.8%
Jim Rice – 76.4%
Andre Dawson – 67.0%
Bert Blyleven – 62.7%
Lee Smith – 44.5%
Jack Morris – 44.0%
Tommy John31.7%
Tim Raines – 22.6%
Mark McGwire – – 21.9%
Alan Trammell – 17.4%
Dave Parker – 15.0%
Don Mattingly – 11.9%
Dale Murphy – 11.5%
Harold Baines – 5.9%
Mark Grace – 4.1%
David Cone – 3.9%
Matt Williams – 1.3%
Mo Vaughn – 1.1%
Jay Bell – 0.4%
Jesse Orosco – 0.2%
Ron Gant – 0%
Dan Plesac – 0%
Greg Vaughn – 0%
It is rather shocking at how low the percentage was for both Tim Raines and Mark McGwire. I expected the backlash considering some of the “s” allegations, but I didn’t expect it to be as bad this year..
But I agree – very disappointing on Raines part.
You going this year? If so – maybe we can work a Pickin’ Splinters meeting on Hall of Fame weekend in Cooperstown?
Hooray for Jim Rice! Hope he is tactful and doesn’t tick off too many with his acceptance speech. From the votes, it Iooks good for Dawson to eventually make it. Maybe also true for Blyleven.
Anyone else think that Lee Smith is either deserving now or at least should have much more than 44.5%?
Who the hell voted for Jay Bell?!?!?! I want names and I want them now!
Jay Bell? Are you friggin’ kiddin’ me? If that guy voted for Bell and left ‘The Hawk’ hanging, that could be one of the more significant injustices in the history of HOF voting.
What does Dawson have to do? Was there a better player in the 80s? George Brett I’ll give ya, but beyond that? Am I forgetting someone?
Congrats to Henderson and Rice. With Rice’s election maybe there is hope for Dawson after all.
I am sorry but let’s look at who voted for Mark Grace and Mo Vaughn.. I like both players but I hardly consider either of them a candidate for the HOF..
Some voters’ ability to vote needs to be taken away.
That might be taking it a bit far, Smitty. Why should people be lambasted for their opinions? I don’t think those guys are so far-fetched.
There’s a Grace-Mattingly comparison that can be made…Mattingly having had the better prime, but Grace having more longevity. What Mattingly has on him in power, Grace makes up for in OBP. I don’t think Grace is a Hall of Famer, but I think he’s better than people think. I don’t want to overuse the win shares argument, because I’m sure not everyone is sold on it, but it may be the best tool available for normalizing careers across eras. Grace had 294 career win shares, more than Jim Rice.
Vaughn had an incredible prime. Voting for him is a stretch, but not worthy of a lynching. If his career didn’t die so quickly in New York, there would be a serious argument for him.
At least no one voted for Dan Plesac.
Yeah Smitty – how about you slaggin’ on a Cubbie. Didn’t you used to have a fondness for the Northsiders at one time?
Mo Vaughn hit one of the longest home runs I have ever seen live. He ripped a shot out of Silver Stadium that left the field soooo quickly fans didn’t have a chance to get up before the pearl left the stadium. It was a frozen rope that went over the 350 sign in right center and caromed off a building (still on a line) another 50-75 feet away. There was a significant delay to everyone’s cheering because we weren’t sure what we had just seen.
Mark Grace belongs in the Hall of Very Good … and I’m a Cubs fan too. But not the Hall of FAME.
Casey – not slaggin’ on any Cubbies.. Just saying it the way it is.. or at least my opinion. I loved watching Mark Grace. I thought he played the game the right way and I loved his approach to hitting. In fact I STOPPED wearing batting gloves at the plate because of him. I thought that it was tough not to wear batting gloves and then I understood why he didn’t wear them.
That being said – I don’t think Mark Grace should be in the HOF..
And yes, I did have a fondness for the Cubbies and to some degree – still do. Hard not to once you have been to monument they call Wrigley Field.