With the latest Hall of Fame vote coming up on Monday, I thought that this week it would be appropriate to take a look at this year’s class. I’m going to discuss not only who I think deserves induction and why, but also try to predict who I believe will get in.
Actually, what started out as an attempt to discuss the most significant players on the 2009 ballot, turned into an argument for the candidacy of one particular player. It just so happens that the player in question received only 24.3% of the vote last year, in his first year of eligibility. In fact, he received only one-third the amount of support as another player, who happened to play the same position that he did, and who is much less deserving of the honor. But, I’m not going to get into comparing these two players. If you’re interested, you can read about that here. I just want to make the case for the guy I feel is the second most deserving candidate on this year’s ballot.
So, since I actually intended to cover more ground in this week’s column, I’m going to give you this week’s Cooking with Chas in two parts–or more.
First, let me weigh in on a subject that can get a bit controversial. That is, the discussion of whether or not a player is worthy of first-ballot election or not. There are some who will complain that a Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer, and why should it matter how many years a player has been on the ballot? Why does a less than obvious candidate have to wait it out and pay his dues–so to speak–until he’s elected? I thoroughly agree with these complaints, particularly when it comes to those voters who refuse to vote for a player in his first year of eligibility. However, when a player is not Willie Mays or Tom Seaver, voters are entitled to change their minds. I’ll admit to having changed my mind about a few players on this year’s ballot. I will also say that, when I change my mind, it’s usually in favor of a player. So, I think it’s somewhat understandable that the longer a name is on the ballot, the more there exists the opportunity for voters to consistently hear the arguments in favor of the player and be swayed to the positive side. This probably doesn’t explain how someone can jump from 29% of the vote to 72% in a span of ten years, but it does justify it to some extent.
With that said, let’s begin by taking a look at the players who I consider to be at the head of this year’s class.
Rickey Henderson, of course, is the most deserving player on this year’s ballot. Should I waste any time, or space here, explaining this selection? Probably not, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking: 1406 SB (1st all-time), 2295 runs (1st), 2190 BB (2nd), 3055 hits, .401 OBP, 127 OPS+, 535 win shares (400 means absolute HOF enshrinement, according to Bill James).
Tim Raines, while maybe not a first-ballot Hall of Famer, should be fairly obvious as well. In the 80s, he was the National League’s version of Rickey Henderson. That is, the best leadoff hitter in his respective league. He was not quite as good as Henderson, of course, but that’s certainly no insult. He had an OBP of .390 or better, which ranked in the top six in the NL, in seven seasons in that decade, despite not playing in his first full season until 1982. Also in the 80s, he ranked first or second in runs scored four times (six times in the top ten), and in the top four in stolen bases eight times, including leading the league for four consecutive years from 1981 to 1984. He also ranked in the top three in runs created for five consecutive years (1983 to 1987).
Raines had an excellent prime, but there was a bit of a drop-off after he left Montreal. Still, although his base stealing ability declined quickly from his early to mid-30s, he remained a good offensive player with a high OBP and decent power. He also played a significant part-time role for two World Series teams in his late 30s, and accumulated 390 win shares over the course of his career. I said earlier that Bill James, the creator of win shares, has stated that 400 is the plateau for automatic enshrinement in Cooperstown. James has also called 300 the level at which a player is more likely than not to enter the Hall of Fame. The last ten position players to be inducted have averaged 377, from Kirby Puckett’s 281 to Eddie Murray’s 437, with Wade Boggs (394) and Tony Gwynn (398) achieving the closest totals to Raines’ 390.
Raines also had a career OBP of .385, an OPS+ (park/league adjusted OPS) of 123 (23% better than average), and is 5th on the career stolen bases list with 808, at an outstanding success rate of 84%. By comparison, Rickey Henderson was successful 80% of the time, and Lou Brock’s rate was 75%. Speaking of Brock, baseball-reference.com’s similarity scores judge him to be the player whose career mostly closely compares to Raines’.
Brock is not only a Hall of Famer, but he was elected on the first ballot. I’m a strong advocate that we should never argue that one player deserves to make it just because another undeserving player did. I’m not saying Brock is undeserving, although he is over-rated and has nothing on Raines, other than 130 stolen bases–which is more than offset by having been caught stealing 161 more times–and the fact that he reached the artificially magical milestone of 3000 hits.
Raines beats him in win shares (390 to 348), and tops him easily in OBP (.385 to .343), OPS+ (123 to 109) and runs created per 27 outs (6.6 to 5.2), while maintaining fairly comparable statistics in other more traditional cumulative categories (39 fewer runs, 80 more RBI, 21 more HR). Furthermore, Raines never won a Gold Glove, but he was an above average outfielder, and Brock was a surprisingly poor defender, making 10 or more errors in 12 different seasons. Yes, you’re reading that correctly. He made 196 errors in 19 seasons, with a .959 fielding percentage, as an outfielder.
But, as I said, Brock’s shortcomings should not be an argument for Raines’ candidacy. However, I have no problem saying that Raines compares favorably with the two men considered to be the best speed-oriented leadoff hitters in the second half of the 20th century. In fact, if you asked me to rate them in order, I’d feel very confident rating Raines behind Henderson, but ahead of Brock. Therefore, Tim Raines is, without question, a Hall of Famer.
This Week on the Hot Stove
Since this is supposed to be a weekly look at the hot stove, otherwise known as Major League Baseball’s off-season, I’m going to make sure to spend a little time selectively discussing this week’s most significant developments.
Trevor Hoffman reportedly agreed to a one-year contract to take over as the Milwaukee Brewers’ closer. The career saves leader’s deal is worth $6 million and includes an option for a second year, which could give him a chance at reaching the 600-save plateau.
While neither deal has been confirmed, the Boston Red Sox apparently signed a pair of starting pitchers, both of whom are coming off of injury plagued seasons, but who could also prove to be tremendous bargains. John Smoltz, who will turn 42 in May, and Brad Penny, who will be 31 but is probably a bigger question mark, both are believed to have signed one-year deals in the range of $5 million plus incentives. It’s really hard to imagine Smoltz not being effective, if healthy, so I have to believe that he’ll make a contribution in 2009. However, Penny has some upside if healthy, but even in his best year (2007), he was an over-rated pitcher who benefited greatly from pitching in Chavez Ravine. That year, his K/BB ratio was unimpressively less than 2-to-1 and the 9 HR he allowed in 208 IP were an aberration when compared with his career numbers. Expect him to be a better–but not necessarily by much–version of last year’s Bartolo Colon.
The Chicago Cubs signed the much maligned Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal. Bradley will play right field and will add a run-producing bat to the heart of the North-siders lineup. He’ll also wear Sammy Sosa’s #21. The biggest question facing the Cubbies now will be, who will lead the team in temper tantrums–Bradley or manager Lou Piniella.
Pat Burrell signed a two-year, $16 million contract with the Tampa Bay Rays. The defensive-challenged Burrell will likely spend most of 2009 at DH for the defending AL champs.
Jason Giambi signed a one-year deal to return to his original team, the Oakland Athletics. The agreement is worth $4 million, with a club option for 2010.
Stay tuned this weekend for Part 2 of “Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Class”, as well as a summary of some of the less significant hot stove transactions of the past week.
I also want to share my favorite Tim Raines moment, which occurred in 1998. It Followed the ugly Yankees-Orioles brawl that resulted from Armando Benitez nailing Tino Martinez in the back after Bernie Williams’ go-ahead homer in the 8th. Benitez, of course, was thrown out of the game, in addition to Darryl Strawberry, Graeme Lloyd, Alan Mills (who clocked Strawberry), and probably others. The most memorable moment for me, though, was after order was restored, Raines was the next batter, and hit a home run off of Bobby Munoz, who came in for Benitez.
I know it was probably just fortuitous that it happened when it did, but it just seemed like the final blow in the brawl, and a player exacting revenge in the ultimate way.
Rock belongs in the Hall. Period. Have I made it clear I feel that way?
Chas – Completely agree with you – Tim Raines should be in the Hall of Fame and here is hoping that maybe he and Ricky can get inducted at the same team. But if Tim has to wait so that Andre Dawson and Jim Rice get in – I can deal with that.
I really like the recent pick ups by the Red Sox. In the past I think there would have been a complete overreaction to the Texiera signing by the Yankees. For the record – can we now put it to rest that Texiera was never coming to the Red Sox and that they were holding out for the bottom dollar? But getting back to the Red Sox – rather then making a rash reaction to Texiera signing with the Yankees, I believe they are going with Plan B. A good lineup that is going to be surrounded by good defense and strong pitching.
The Smoltz and Penny signings allow the Red Sox to keep Michael Bowden and Daniel Bard in the minors for another year, as well as keep Justin Masterson in the bullpen – where I think he is going to be most effective.
I think that Clay Bucholtz may unfortunately be trade bait for a catcher in waiting. It is also completely unfortunately about the Varitek situation – as the Captain allowed Boras to turn down arbitration and effectively killed any market for the catcher. Boras sold him a bag of goods and the longer this goes – either Varitek is going back to the Red Sox for less money then he hoped for or he is heading for retirement. At this point, no MLB team is going to pay Varitek the $10+ milliion a year and give up a first round draft pick to the Red Sox.
But I think the Red Sox will be players at the trading deadline – especially for someone like Joe Mauer and others.
I hate spending time on it.. But is anyone else enjoying the lack of suitors for Manny Ramirez? Did he and Boras completely underestimate A. the economy and B. What his antics in Boston would cost him ??
They might have to increase the mantle size to get all of Rickey’s head on it. 🙂
Hopefully, the Rock makes it. Wait which hat would he wear? Is there an Expo in the Hall?
It is amazing how Brock is so adored especially considering his number of strike outs. When it comes to the Hall, it is a disadvantage to be an all-around very good player as opposed to one who specializes.
Raines would definitely wear an Expos cap, and he’d be the first to do so, unless Andre Dawson beats him to it.
Lou Brock may be the worst first ballot Hall of Famer there is.
Tim Raines = Hall of Fame? Doesn’t quite feel right. Very good player? Absolutely. All time great? Can’t quite go there. Just doesn’t pass the “eye test” for me. Not a .300 career hitter, 2,600 hits, no gold gloves, #4 all time in SBs … but it took a 22 yr career. He’ll have to wait for several ballots … may have to sweat it out. No … should have to sweat it out.
Rickey Henderson … yes … no doubt.
I don’t think I need to make the case for Raines any more than I already have, but I have a couple more things to say:
Holding it against him for taking 22 years is a flawed argument on two levels. First, he’s the all-time leader in stolen base success rate. #1, the best. No one better. Not Rickey Henderson, not Lou Brock, not Ty Cobb. No one. Not a single person. Second, his first two years were brief callups at age 19 and 20 (21 games total), and the latter part of his career didn’t help either, because he was old and wasn’t stealing bases. In fact, he had over 700 career steals at age 32.
And, did I mention he’s the all-time leader in success rate. Do you know why that’s important? Because Lou Brock’s 75% rate is barely good enough to make it worth the risk. How many hits should we take away from him for that? Getting on base, then getting thrown out stealing is about as good as what? Right. Not getting on base at all.
Batting average is way over-rated, as are cumulative hits, by association. Raines was a leadoff hitter with a career .385 OBP and is the second best base stealer of all-time (based on SB minus CS, which couldn’t be more obvious that it’s more important than just SB). Bill James called him the second best leadoff hitter of all-time. I only went so far as to call him the second best of a 50-year period. Still, that’s got to be considered almost as impressive as being the second best at a particular position.
He also had a higher career slugging percentage than Rickey, by the way.
Raines’s years in Montreal are gonna hurt him. He spent a lot of time doing great things that not many people knew about. By the time he arrived in Chicago, his best years were behind him.
Unfortunately, he dropped off pretty quickly after he left Montreal, but his role as an important part-time player on two Yankees World Series team might help him in that regard. I think he’s going to be one of those guys whose support increases year by year. I’m not sure if that means he’ll get in, though, because Rice started at 30% and look at him now. He’s either going to squeak in or miss in heartbreaking fashion…the latter of which would be so fitting for a 20th century Red Sox player.
Chas —
Those are lots of great analytical arguments and I definitely see your POV, but I’m not sure those types of things are important to many of the voters. Remember, its not supposed to be the “Hall of Very Good” … and Maybe Brock shouldn’t have gotten in … or gotten in so quickly ???
It is funny that so many of the Great Expos players dropped off after they days in Montreal were done..
Andre Dawson wasn’t the same players when he left. Raines’ numbers dropped off after he left. Vlad looks like he hurts everytime he runs – I just wonder how much of toll that surface took on those guys.
Fortunately guys like Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez didn’t spend too much time up there before getting release from exile..
actually – the ‘Hawk’ won an MVP in Chicago.
What’s so interesting about the HOF voting is that there are so many players that some consider great and, therefore, worthy and others think are just very good. All of these players fall into this category: Raines, Dawson, Rice, Trammell, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Jack Morris, Mattingly, Blyleven, Tommy John, Lee Smith. Obviously, Wally and I have this common disagreement about Raines.
Bert Be Home Blyleven. Now there’s a guy I think who ought to be in the Hall. This is a real headscratcher. 287 wins over roughly 22 seasons … a 3.31 career ERA … 3,700 K’s … a workhorse 4,970 innings or an average of 226 per year!!! Numbers are very comparable to Fergie Jenkins who had an 18 yr career … better winning % … but a 3.34 ERA … 284 wins … 3192 K’s. Jenkins played for some really good Cubs teams (did I just say that?!?!?). Actually they were pretty good … and heartbreaking in the late 60’s and early 70’s.
And Blyleven had one of the best curveballs we will ever see!!!
One could easily make the case that Blyleven was no better than very good. He’s an interesting one. I was swayed in his favor a year or so ago, but I could understand not thinking so.
Hot Stove questions for you Chas – I have followed zero baseball the last few months. Who will the Phils get (or have already gotten) to replace Burrell?
No clue the Red Sox got BOTH Penny and Smoltz. That is a heck of a rotation. Smoltz to the bullpen? Or does he have a significant spot in the rotation? Lester, Penny, Dice-K, Beckett, Buchholz. Is that their 5-man?
Wakefield is still in the mix. Smoltz is a nice insurance plan when Wakefield makes his annual trip to the DL. That spot used to be reserved for Julian Tavarez. How much did Epstein increase the sanity level of the Sox when he released Tavarez?
Welcome back, Rey. The Phillies signed Raul Ibanez to play left field, before Burrell left town.
As far as the Red Sox are concerned, I think Buchholz is out of the mix…traded or back down in AAA, at least to start the season. Smoltz, Penny and Wakefield round out the final two spots in the rotation. I doubt all three of them will be healthy and effective, but between the three of them, they might do a nice job of filling two spots.
Where did Paul Byrd end up going?