Michigan State returns last year’s leading scorer – junior, Raymar Morgan, and leading rebounder – senior, Goran Suton. Tom Izzo preaches rebounding as a means to the promised land (I’m trying to imagine a game between UConn and MSU – that wouldn’t be for the faint of heart). His war drill – characterized as football without the pads – has taken on a life of its own. When the Spartans won the title in 2000, they had the balance between the rebounding of Mo Peterson and Andre Hutson and the point guard play of Mateen Cleaves. Izzo’s clubs are always dangerous because they work hard. This year’s Final Four takes place in Detroit – an added motivation for guards Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen to step up their play. Senior, Marquise Gray, rounds out the starting five.
Texas returns four starters from last year’s squad that advanced to the Regional final. The only problem is none of those players are DJ Augustin. The Consensus All-American led the Longhorns in points and assists. Rick Barnes will spend much of the pre-season figuring out who will handle the ball. Senior, AJ Abrams might be the logical choice, but Texas cannot afford for Abrams to drop off in point production. Texas brings plenty of strength in the front court – 6’10” Connor Atchley, 6’6” Gary Johnson, and 6’7” Damion James will provide plenty of muscle in the paint. 6’10” Dexter Pittman coming off the bench will give opposing big men a few headaches. James might be another in what is becoming a list of great Longhorns.
The Blue Devils have become champs of late at putting together an impressive regular season record only to bow out politely in the early rounds of the NCAA tourney. This year doesn’t look to be any different. Lest you think I have changed my allegiances – I am simply attempting to remain as objective as possible. Yes, I bleed Duke Blue. If you come to my lair during a Duke game, don’t expect me to respond favorably to any gibes.
Duke does well early in the year creating turnovers and converting at the opposite end. Problem with this is come tournament time, teams take care of the ball better, and the Blue Devils struggle to compensate. Speaking of struggling to compensate – rebounding will be a problem for the Blue Devils…AGAIN! – looks as if Kyle Singler will be forced to match up with opposing big men. That is fine when the 6’8” sophomore is on offense forcing big men out of the paint. Problem is Singler can’t help but get in foul trouble every game.
Gerald Henderson has proven himself as a top-flight player who is at his best when slashing to the cup.
The biggest question mark for Coach K and his staff has to be Greg Paulus. The senior plays as if he read a how-to manual on court leadership. Yeah, he makes all the right gestures and yells things out, but when push comes to shove, Paulus is not a leader. He is a shooting guard who needs someone else to take the ball. As long as Paulus is in the lineup, Duke is susceptible to the press. Even championship high school teams can’t be pressed on a regular basis – maybe a little bit here and little bit there to steal a possession or two. But never a steady diet. With Paulus on the floor, you might as well press because he eventually coughs up the rock.
Don’t be surprised when Paulus goes off the floor, and Nolan Smith takes over that Duke plays more effectively. Jon Scheyer could be deadly this year. Moving the three-point arc back a foot will not bother the junior.
The Irish have all the fixins for a sweet feast this year. Mike Brey’s starting lineup should include three seniors and two juniors with a senior and a junior coming off the bench. Luke Harangody averaged 20 a game last year. Combine that with sweet-shooting Kyle McAlarney, and the Irish will be tough to hold under 80 points. Tory Jackson averaged just under six assists per game last year, and the junior will only get better this year. Jackson is one of the best at on-the-ball defenders in the country – important as ND prepares for a rugged Big East schedule. Seniors, Ryan Ayers and Zach Hillesland complete the first unit. Ayers averaged 7.8 points per game last year. 6’11” Luke Zeller will provide valuable minutes off the bench.
Funny how Gonzaga is the only mid-major in the top ten – especially after three (Davidson, Memphis, and Xavier) crashed the last year’s Elite Eight. Coach Mark Few is enough to make the Bulldogs a threat. Add in point guard Jeremy Pargo and the Zags are legitimate. Pargo flirted with the NBA draft and then decided better of it. Pargo scored 12 and handed out 6 assists per game for a Gonzaga team that struggled with injuries all season. Big man, Josh Heytvelt, appears to be done with his Replacements impersonation and ready to return to the form that saw him outplay Tyler Hansbrough two years ago. Sophomore shooting guard, Steven Gray started last year on the bench with a fractured wrist. Gray should be a perfect complement to Pargo and Heytvelt. With defenses having to focus on the other two, Gray should fill the tin. Forwards, Austin Daye and Matt Bouldin will complete Few’s starting five. Senior, Micah Downs, will come off the bench. Gonzaga’s non-conference schedule includes trips to Indiana, Washington State, and Arizona. The Zags will host Memphis, Tennessee, and UConn.
#s11-15 on Wednesday.
Michigan State also has a pretty good freshman class, led by 6’8″ Delvon Roe at PF. We’ll see where Izzo’s team stands on December 3 when UNC comes in to Detroit for the ACC/Big Eleven challenge. That will be played at Ford Field and will definitely have an early Final Four feel to it.
The question with Duke is what offense are they going to resemble. Casey – we talked a lot about their NBA-esque style last season. That’s fine, but their personnel really didn’t go with what they were trying to run. 3-point attempt after 3-point attempt and no rebounding, as you’ve said. They have shooters and Henderson who can muscle and get to the basket. I say spread the floor and go “Princeton” on teams. If they start to sag and play your cuts, utilize Henderson and then look to your 3-ball. They really have no legitmate post presence, or is that 7-footer who was injured all last year finally healthy and back?
Interested to see where you have Jeff Capel’s crew. Oklahoma would be in my top ten to start the season.
Zoubek is a poor excuse for a big man.
Casey —
Do you really think the Irish deserve a top 10 ranking? Similar to ND’s football team, I don’t see the Irish hoops squad being physical enough on defense to crack the Elite 8. Your thoughts?
Wally
You hit the nail on the head. The Irish have seemed in the past to lack the physicality necessary to win games in March. This year’s team will probably fit that description. I understand why the AP would include ND in their top 10 – they play in a power conference, they have three impressive offensive threats, and a strong fan base to give the poll some attention – 🙂 . Basically this poll gives little credence to the mid-majors. Of the 25 teams listed only 3 (Gonzaga, Memphis, and Davidson) do not belong to a major conference. We all know that will change soon. I’ll make some picks on that later.
Good News – Duke opened their season last night, and Greg Paulus was not in the starting lineup…and early reports have that as the plan. Rey – if that is the case, we will see fewer three point attempts because Nolan Smith will regularly get into the paint.