Breaking down the AP Pre-Season Poll (#s1-5)

Did someone mention college hoops? Was it Wally who expressed his longing for the campus hard wood?

All the major media outlets have published their Top 25 lists. Figured I take a look at the old standby – the AP – and breakdown their predictions.

Sporting News has provided a list of dates that should whet our appetites:
Nov. 10: 2008-09 season begins
Nov. 18: Kentucky at North Carolina
Dec. 2: Duke at Purdue
Dec. 3: North Carolina vs. Michigan State
Dec. 4: UCLA at Texas
Dec. 4: Southern Cal at Oklahoma
Dec. 6: Wisconsin at Marquette
Dec. 20: Connecticut at Gonzaga
Dec. 20: Texas at Michigan State
Jan. 4: Kentucky at Louisville
Jan. 7: Davidson at Duke
Jan. 24: Memphis at Tennessee
Feb. 7: Notre Dame at UCLA
March 15: Selection Sunday
April 6: National championship

I am champing at the bit already – can’t wait to get this season going.

Before we look at the individuals, let’s consider a couple of ideas – a way to give us a basis for working. When looking at the game of basketball, we could break down the options for scoring points into a few categories: 1. Creating a turnover, getting an advantage situation, and converting at the other end of the floor. 2. Rebound, outlet, organizing the break, and finding the open man. 3. Half-court offensive set. 4. Getting an offensive rebound and scoring. 5. Press offense – whether that means breaking a full-court press, three-quarter press, or a half-court trap. 6. Specials – sideline out-of-bounds or baseline out-of-bounds. 7. Free throws.

Keeping those ideas in mind and let’s look at the AP’s pre-season top ten.

The sexy choice for #1 – and why not? At one time Ty Lawson, Danny Green, and Wayne Ellington all planned on grabbing pay checks from the NBA. Then the trio decided better of it, and Chapel Hill should reap the benefits.
I’m not gonna lie. Everyone knows my allegiance to Duke, but UNC under Roy Williams is…is…well goshdarnit! They are hard to hate. I mean dadgum ol’ Roy runs a pretty clean ship and all.
But here’s the thing. I love watching Roy’s teams play an up-tempo style. They will spend much of the season cashing in on lay ups because they can push the ball up the floor – not many in the country better than Lawson from foul line to foul line. The kid can move. And, oh, I almost forgot Tyler Hansbrough. He runs the floor better than any big man in the nation. ‘Cept the problem is Roy has only won one title and that was with someone else’s kids. Games in March are won by striking a balance between those seven ways to score that I previously outlined. Roy had that balance with Sean May in the lineup. May provided that post presence that allowed the Heels to score when teams got back and made them run a half-court set.
If Carolina is to win it all this year, they will need to establish a half-court game.

The first of four Big East teams in the Top Ten. Hmmmm….sounds fishy to me. The Big East managed one team (Louisville) in last year’s Elite Eight and two more (West Virginia and Villanova) in the Sweet Sixteen. Anyone who knows anything about the Huskies realizes that if a Jim Calhoun team is going to do well it starts with defense and rebounding. It never looks pretty, but it gets the job done. 7’3” Hasheem Thabeet and 6’7” Jeff Adrien will clean the boards for Calhoun. After suffering an ACL injury last year, point guard, A.J. Price looks to return for the Huskies. If UConn is going to make a push in March, Jerome Dyson and Craig Austrie will need to contribute from the outside.

How many years has Rick Pitino been in Louisville? This is #8. Ricky must love horse racing ‘cause it actually seems like he has found a home. Pitino is the only coach in NCAA history to take three teams to the Final Four (UL ’05, Kentucky, and Providence). It took Pitino five years to win the title in Lexington. He better get a move on.

Pitino basketball is about denial defense that will throw the kitchen sink at the opposition as far as traps go and then being able to knock down a high percentage of threes.

In this day and age when kids can’t wait to declare for the draft, the Cardinals will start two seniors – Andre McGee and Terrence Williams (when he recovers from a torn meniscus), and two juniors – Earl Clark and Jerry Smith. Juniors Edgar Sosa and Reginald Delk (transfer from Miss. St.) will provide depth off the bench. Louisville needs some inside punch to make a run in March.

Can the Bruins make it to their fourth consecutive Final Four? Much will depend upon Darren Collison. The senior point guard has shown an amazing ability to carry his teams from time to time only to let them drop when it hurts the most. Alfred Aboya and Josh Shipp – two more seniors – return for Ben Howland’s group. Junior James Keefe and freshman, Jrue Holiday should round the starting five. Howland’s success has started with defense, and this year will be no different.

Jaime Dixon’s crew looked poised to make a run last season. Then point guard, Levance Fields, went down with a broken foot. The Brooklyn, NY native returned before the end of the season, but the Panthers never recaptured their momentum. Senior, Sam Young, will join Fields in the starting lineup as will sophomores Brad Wanamaker, DeJuan Blair, and Gilbert Brown. The Panthers will need to endure the rugged Big East schedule without any injuries.

Coming Saturday – #s6-10.