Welcome to Tuesdays with Smitty – the late edition. Recently Casey posted an article talking about Greg Maddux and his pursuit of 350 wins. Recent research led me to appreciate just how significant getting to the 350 win marker really is. Outside of Roger Clemens, whose accomplishments have dimmed given recent events – the last pitcher to reach the 350+ plateau was Warren Spahn in 1965. Spahn’s career spanned 24 years – similar in length to Maddux. Which led me to ask the question – Are we watching the last 350+ winner ? ”
Ultimately this led me to an even greater question – What is going to qualify to be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame? Last year’s candidates were Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gywnn – both slam dunk HOF’ers. Every era in baseball has resulted in certain conditions/factors being considered. Let’s break it down:
Deadball Era -From 1893-1919 was known for a soft ball and a different mound location. The result – lower offensive numbers getting into the HOF. Guys like Sam Crawford, who hit 97 Home Runs in his career, but had 309 triples in his career received votes to be inducted.
Babe Ruth Era – 1920-1945 brought baseball to new heights and popularity. The Home Run ball came into play, as a tighter ball was introduced. The results are obvious, as heroes such as Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio, Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig are born.
The Golden Age – 1946-1960, brought us post-war optimism and integration in baseball. Players such as Larry Doby, Mickey Mantle, Bob Feller and Jackie Robinson bring the game to entire new levels.
The Expansion Era – 1961-1976. Saw baseball add new teams. Saw the lowering of the mound after Bob Gibson’s unthinkable 1968 season – ERA of 1.12 and saw the Home Run baseball. This era ushered in a new Home Run King in Hank Aaron. Harmon Killebrew played a majority of his career in Minnesota – which had an outdoor stadium at the time and finished with 573 Home Runs.
Modern Baseball – 1977 – 1995. Saw free agency come into the game, which has changed the course of the game. The Home Run became more popular then ever.. Which led us to the…
Steroid Era – 1995 – ?. Brought us new records in every Home Run category. Home Run totals skyrocketed. In fact Roger Maris’ record was broken twice – by Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds. Game’s reputation has been tainted and is still recovering.
Now that we have the eras listed, I ask the question – What makes a HOF player now in the Steroid era? Does the 600+ Home Runs of Sammy Sosa equal to Harmon Killebrew’s 573? Take the case of Jim Edmonds, who was recently released by the San Diego Padres and at the age of 37 – is coming to the end of his career. How does he fall into Hall of Fame consideration? While his offensive numbers of .286 batting average, 363 career Home Runs and 1,127 RBIs are impressive, they are less then what we would consider “Hall of Fame” caliber. Add in the fact that he is an 8 time Gold Glove winner and 4 time All-Star and his credentials rise. In fact there are currently only 5 outfielders with more Gold Gloves then Edmonds – Clemente, Mays, Griffey Jr., Al Kaline and Andruw Jones. 3 of which are in the HOF and one is a shoo in. So where does Edmonds fall in the HOF discussion. Do his numbers get a boost because he played the game steroid-free (his name has never been linked).
My point is that Home Runs have played a major influence in getting players into the Hall of Fame. But now that performance enhancing drugs have skewed that gauge – what constitutes a Hall of Famer? How does Griffey’s 600 fall into play? Are they more impressive? Let’s hear what you have to say:
Other Rumblings:
1. Goose Gossage recently called out Joba Chamberlain to end his fist-pumping reactions when getting out. Is his celebrations too excessive? There does seem to be a double standard if a hitter watches his Home Run too long in the batter’s box. Where is the line for pitchers?
2. I think the run by the Philadelphia Flyers is coming to an end. Pittsburgh looks tough and I think they have rode the back of Martin Biron for too long.
3. Spygate is over, let’s move on.
4. Cheers to Annika Sorenstam who announced her retirement effective at the end of the year. Here is hoping that she will play at the Wegman’s LPGA and give Rochester one last chance to see her play. A great career and cheers for her being willing to walk away in her 30s to pursue other interests.
5. Home teams in the NBA playoffs are 46-16 this year. I believe this is the second highest winning percentage in playoff history. It certainly makes the home field advantage that much more crucial.
I think it’s hard to say right now at what numbers are players now considered a “lock” for the Hall of Fame. I think first you have to remove the steroids cloud. Obviously, if Mark McGwire’s career was not being called into question due to steroids, he would’ve been a first ballot lock.
So, removing that issue, and throwing Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro out of the discussion as well, I would say that 500 home runs no longer gets a player elected automatically. If Fred McGriff reached 500, would he get in? Maybe, and he still might, but I would consider him a borderline candidate. What about Jim Thome? He’s over 500, and of course, still playing, but I would only consider his chances a little better than McGriff’s.
As far as the win plateau is concerned, unless the game drastically changes, which, as evidenced by Smitty’s breakdown of eras, it has been known to, there will not be another 350 game winner. 300 is going to be pretty difficult in today’s game too, so is 250 now the number? Still hard to say, because I think Mike Mussina falls short. Not to mention that wins are a considerably more over-rated statistic than home runs are anyway.
Not sure if I really answered any questions there, but one question I feel I can answer is the debate about showing emotion on the field. Everyone who says you shouldn’t is just being ridiculous. I’m sure Dennis Eckersley would come down on the side of Joba. Actions that are pre-meditated or fly in the face of taunting your opponent are another story, but if it’s natural and simply a product of your own intensity, why shouldn’t you show emotion.
Mark McGwire’s numbers don’t necessarily indicate a first-ballot lock. He was a one-dimensional player. If you compare McGwire’s numbers to Harmon Killebrew’s, you will see similarities. In fact Killebrew’s numbers might have been slightly better. Killebrew led the league in HR’s 6 times; Mac – 4 times. Killebrew was in the top three of HR’s 10 times; Mac – 8 times. Killebrew led the league in RBI 3 times; Mac did it once. Killebrew played three positions: 3rd, 1st, and Left field (earning an all-star at each spot), Mac played first. Killebrew won an MVP; Mac did not. Killebrew did not get elected the first time he was eligible.
I agree with Smitty that a home run in the 60’s was more difficult to hit then now. With that in mind guys like Gil Hodges and Ron Santo get left by the way side. Although they played in later decades, Jim Rice, Don Mattingly, and Andre Dawson suffer the same fates: great players who do not get the notoriety they deserve.
Is this because our perceptions have been altered? With the increased number of home runs and the gaudy numbers that go along with that, have we lost perspective on how great these guys were?
500 is not a lock for a guy like Jim Thome because that’s what he lived off. But 400 homers for a guy like Dawson should be a lock.
“Chicks dig the long ball” was a catchy phrase and a great advertising campaign – nothing more than that. Home Runs are one category and should not be allowed to carry a disproportionate amount of weight.
350? Brandon Webb is 29, and he has 73 wins. We better appreciate Maddux’s accomplishments.
Keep it poppin’ Orville.
Almost forgot – Joba is what 22? We can cut him some slack. ‘Goose’ must have been feeling giddy from his Cooperstown tour; he lost his senses a little.
Let’s not forget that McGwire is the all-time leader in at bats per home run. Yeah, he’s one dimensional, but that dimension was damn good.
But, there’s no sense in debating whether or not he’d be a first-ballot lock. He’d be a lock to make the Hall of Fame, period, if not for the steroids controversy, and my point is that, in order to have this discussion, we need to throw out guys with that cloud hanging over their head.
I wonder what Goose would think of the antics of Manny Ramirez last night.
If Mac (without the steroids’ controversy) is a hall of fame lock, then why doesn’t Mattingly have a plaque in Cooperstown? The guy won 9 gold gloves, career batting average over .300, led the league in average once, hits twice, RBI once, slugging -once.
My point is too much emphasis is put on the home run. Mattingly was a great all-around player. (I am trying to imagine him on steroids.) Yet this seems to be a disadvantage when it comes to the voting.
Sosa is a lock to make it into the HoF … just maybe not on first ballot. He’s got over 600 dingers and only a handful of guys have done that. Plus, he’s somehow dodged a lot of the steroid-related bullets and his enthusiasm for the game is a big positive. Sosa definitely gets in before McGwire … that’s a lock.
Mattingly? Probably not, but I think it’s a very gray discussion with him. He’s not getting enough credit for 9 Gold Gloves. But 1B is a tough position to stand out offensively. Mattingly’s stats are very good, but they are not “great”. I think the voters would have to elect Jim Rice before Donny Baseball.
Greg Maddux … one helluva pitcher … with emphasis on the word PITCHER. He was not over-powering, although in his prime he did get it up there at 89-90mph on occasion. The key to Maddux was the great movement on his fastball and command of the strikezone. He was great at getting hitters to hit his pitch … usually for grounders. And he was also the master of the backdoor called strike 3 … with that fastball that tailed back in about 6-8 inches before the hitter could react. And how many Gold Gloves does he own???? I believe Maddux is indeed the last pitcher we’ll ever see win 350 games for sure … we may not see another one win 300 … that’s how much the game has changed.
Mattingly retired young, and his career was already fading at that point. He had a great four-year run, but otherwise was nothing spectacular, especially for a first-baseman. Unfortunately, some of this may have been due to his back problems, but that’s too bad. At this point, we pretty much know Mattingly isn’t going to make it, unless there’s a Veterans’ Committee push at some point. It’s too bad he doesn’t get more support, but that’s the way it is.
With regard to McGwire, I was talking more about how the Hall of Fame voters vote, rather than my opinion of his worthiness. Maybe there is too much emphasis on home runs. Actually, maybe there is too much emphasis on cumulative statistics, period.
I have no idea what is going on with me, but I am going to continue to support Mattingly. He hit better than .300 for six consecutive seasons. Then hit .288 twice and .291. All the while playing great defense.
Look at a guy like Rod Carew – a no-brainer that he is in the Hall. The best hitter of our time? He won the batting title 7 times but never won a gold glove.
It is almost as if your ticket to hall can be punched if you specialize in one thing.
Chas – you are right when you suggest there is too much emphasis on cumulative stats.
Since I’m too lazy to do it myself right now, can somebody please throw out some of Mattingly’s career stats: Lifetime BA, HRs, RBI’s, OBP, etc? I suspect what we’ll find is someone who was very good for the better part of a decade. Any MVPs? One?
Regarding Rod Carew … take a good look at his lifetime BA and please note that it’s doggone hard to win 7 batting titles. How many players have won 7 and who are they? I bet there’s less than 5 all-time. Gold Gloves are quite a bit easier to win, but I don’t mean to diminish it. They do give one out every year to each position.
Wally
https://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mattido01.shtml
Wally, I believe Greg Maddux has won 17 Gold Gloves. The leader before that was Jim Kaat.
I agree. We use Home Runs way too much as a measure stick. Wally, I don’t mean to pick on you. Sammy Sosa hit 600 Home Runs – what else did he really do? He has a lifetime batting average of .273 and yeah 1,667 RBIs. Trust me, I like the guy and his love for the game was infectious. But what else puts him over the top and honestly say – yeah he was one of the best in the game?
I think we are so in love with the Home Run that we tend to idolize the guys that can hit the most.. This is why I brought up someone like Jim Edmonds. I love the way he played the game – I know his stats are good enough to get in the HOF. But when you add in 8 Gold Gloves and if you are going to add in MVP crowns – you have to add in World Series rings. Jim Edmonds has one of those. So what puts Sosa over the top of Edmonds? 200 Home Runs more?
I almost think 600 is going to be new level for home runs. Griffey is going to pass it. A-Rod and probably Pujols as well. Manny might pass it if he plays 3 or 4 more years. In the next couple of years, you are going to double the number of guys in a class that was pretty exclusive for years.
Wow – impressive breakdown of this issue, Smitty. This might be too simple, but I’m looking for longevity/consistency. Griffey to me is for certain; I think when his time comes, so many people will sympathize with his injury-plagued career and realize how impressive his numbers are despite all the injuries. Also a darn good center fielder who seemed to cover the whole outfield.
Is Mattingly plagued by a short career (10 years?) without a World Series appearance? His career numbers:
.307 BA
222 Home Runs
1,099 RBI
2,153 career hits
9 gold gloves
6 All Star selections
3 Silver Sluggers
1 MVP (1985)
What constitutes longevity? Short career but those gold gloves seem to pop out based on that. If you continue to look at his stats, in his prime he was always tops in the league in doubles (most was 53?), sacrifice flies, total bases, and on base percentage. Bottom line: he was consistent at the plate. He rarely struck out and drew many walks – this continued even as his RBI and homeruns declined. Sure he didn’t have the 3,000 hits or the power desired by the average fan, but the guy knew how to get the most out of an at-bat.
The steriod era has diluted the HOF. I just think the overall consistency of a player should be looked at.
Smitty —
I’m not really in love with the HR, so I regret that I’ve left that impression with folks. I’m a numbers guy just as much as anybody and, I think, a true student of the game. (Maybe Casey can vouch for me since he knows me pretty well). When it comes to analyzing offense in baseball and the productivity of players, it’s all about run production. To me, this translates into two things primarily: runs scored and runs batted in. The best players do a lot of both. I agree whole-heartedly that HRs are over-rated, but I’m not a HOF voter. To normalize for factors like longer careers vs shorter ones, we should probably express numbers as annual averages. Right or wrong, I do think HoF voters factor in longevity and sustained excellence … However, some players come along once in awhile with short but brilliant careers (e.g. Sandy Koufax and Gale Sayers in football) who make the HoF because of their brilliance.
Some points on the previous commentary:
1) Mattingly did not have a “brilliant career” (but it was very, very good). For such a short career and to be considered for the Hall, he would’ve needed two MVPs. 2) I like Sosa much more for his RBIs than for his HRs … where does Sammy sit on the all-time RBI list? What was his average per season? 3) With all due respect, I cannot envision talking about Jim Edmonds and HoF in the same sentence. Edmonds had a few very good years and played on some great teams … and of course he made about 5 circus catches every year … hence the Gold Gloves. But to try to match him up with Sosa is kind of futile, IMO.
Wally
Wally,
I agree with you. Jim Edmonds had a great career – just not a HOF career. I was merely using him a benchmark as I am not completely sold on Sammy Sosa being in the HOF.
His career batting average was .273. His 1,530 career RBIs are impressive and fall at 38th on the all-time list. Problem with that line is that guys like Fred McGriff, Andre Dawson and Harold Baines are ahead of him. Jeff Bagwell is 15 RBIs behind him. None of which are in the Hall of Fame.
Which leads me back to what makes Sammy Sosa a Hall of Fame player – what makes his career brilliant? It comes back to the 600 Home Runs. Wally, not saying that you are in love with the Home Run, but I think way too many other people are.
In my opinion, Andre Dawson should be in the HOF before Sammy Sosa. Heck Jim Rice and Ron Santos should be in the HOF before Sosa.
I also agree Don Mattingly had a few great years – but it was done long enough. I think someone like Big Papi would be in the same category if he was to suddenly stop hitting right now. A couple of great years isn’t enough. It has to be done over time.
You are right.. Only a few players come along whose careers are cut short and end up in the HOF. Koufax and Sayers are and will be – one of a kind.
Great conversation guys..
Longevity is an important factor, but there has to be a balancing act between rewarding someone simply for his cumulative stats due to longevity and the emphasis on short-term dominance. Someone made a good point that a guy who had a short career better be really exceptional, like Sandy Koufax. I have to admit that I didn’t blink when Kirby Puckett got elected, but looking back, I’m not so sure.
I think a statistic that has been over-rated across time, and is still being over-emphasized here, is batting average. Despite a batting average 44 points lower than Mattingly’s, McGwire’s career on-base percentage was 36 points higher. Contrary to what someone else said here, Mattingly did NOT draw a lot of walks. In fact, that was something that people used to compare Wade Boggs favorably to him.
A statistic I like, that baseball-reference.com uses is OPS+, that is OPS (on-base plus slugging) adjusted by league average and park factor. Since we know that slugging percentage, and therefore OPS too, over-rates home runs a little, it’s not a perfect stat, but it makes for an interesting comparison here.
An OPS of 100 is average, and higher is better, with an OPS of 110 meaning the player is 10% better than average for his era. Here’s a few guys that have been discussed here:
Mattingly – 127
Puckett – 124
Sosa – 128
McGwire – 162
Again, I’m not saying this makes my case for McGwire, just throwing it out there. Sorry to get so nerdy with the stats. 🙂
I will more than vouch for Wally. In a recent conversation with the current University of Toledo coach and former ND batsman, Cory Mee, I dropped Wally’s name, and yes Mee does recall Wally’s name being mentioned in the halls of the ND baseball program.
Chas – stats are not nerdy. 🙂
In case anyone was wondering, here’s the list of guys who have won more gold gloves than Mattingly: Greg Maddux, Jim Kaat, ‘Pudge’ Rodriguez, Johnny Bench, Keith Hernandez, Robbie Alomar, Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel, Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Andruw Jones, Al Kaline.
Bob Gibson, Ryne Sandberg, and Luis Aparicio have as many.
Back to my original premise – if Mattingly is not in the Hall, then McGwire should not be considered as an automatic. Mattingly retired in ’95 which means he was eligible for the Hall in 2000 – right in the middle of the Steroids era. This must have cast a negative light on his offensive stats.
Sosa’s 1,667 RBIs put him at 23rd on the all-time list sandwiched between Hall of Famers Cal Ripken and Reggie Jackson (a few more) and Ernie Banks (a few less). His 1,475 Runs Scored rank 70th all-time which is in the neighborhood of Hall of Famers Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, Rod Carew, Roberto Clemente and Billy Williams. Of course, his 609 HRs puts him 5th on the all-time list. He also had a cannon for an arm and had his share of OF assists. Sosa also had over 300 stolen bases.
I agree with previous writers that HRs and BA are both over-rated statistics. The object of the game, offensively, is to score runs … so the players that get on base and those that drive them in are the most productive. These two stats incorporate all the other elements: BA, OBP, speed, power/HRs, clutch hitting, etc. Here’s a stat that normalizes “productivity” (RBIs + Runs)/Games Played for a career … long or short. Here’s where a few of the players discussed rate compared to some HoFers:
McGwire 1.38
Sosa 1.33
Edmonds 1.24
Mattingly 1.18
—————————-
Mickey Mantle 1.33
Frank Robinson 1.30
Eddie Murray 1.17
George Brett 1.17
Babe Ruth 1.75
Conclusions: Edmonds and Mattingly were very productive, but for shorter careers … don’t have the sustained excellence. Again, defense is not factored into this and it should be. Maybe some of the current HoFers were over-rated???? Sosa and McGwire should be HoFers eventually, based on their productivity and longevity-based absolute numbers. Lastly, Babe Ruth is out of this frickin’ world!!!!
Wally
Wally
Great research and stat. You are making a good argument for Sosa; I am just having a difficult time erasing from my memory bank his sudden inability to speak English when he was questioned by Congress.
Yes, I know, many of these guys are tainted by the ‘roid thing. Eventually, memories of that will fade … maybe their HR stats will be multiplied by .8 to compare with players of other eras … but eventually Sosa and McGwire will be in the HoF. Bonds, too, unless his perjury and other stuff land him in a bigger heap of trouble. What people keep forgetting is that HoF voters also have a category that has nothing to do with numbers … I’ll call it “impact on the game” … and it gets weighted pretty heavily. Mac, Sammy & Bonds are largely given credit for bringing baseball back from the 90’s strike plague.
Take a look at my favorite productivity stat for a couple other current stars:
Alex Rodriguez 1.57
Manny Ramirez 1.51
Frank Thomas 1.39
Griffey Jr. 1.36
All these guys are obvious HoF locks.
By the way, Corey Mee is quite a bit younger than I am … I don’t think he entered ND until at least a few years after I had graduated. He played when the Irish were actually “very good” :).
Wally
I for one hope the ‘roid memories of these guys do not fade.
If Sammy Sosa did not play for the Cubs I don’t think you (Wally) would be such an avid supporter. He may have dodged allegations, but that is only because he was smart enough to: a. not leave a bottle of andro for everyone to see. b. he didn’t foolishly appear in front of Congress, deny taking performance enhancers and then promptly fail his next pee test. c. He did not go to any Jose Canseco parties.
But Sammy did have a sudden morphing of his body. He went from a buck 60 soaking wet to a beast in a very short period of time. Then came the whole ‘no mas’ in front of Congress. Then afterwards he looked like he needed a bottle of Geritol to be able to compete. Yeah he avoided allegations, but it sure does look suspicious. Let’s not forget – didn’t Sammy get caught with a corked bat? C’mon Wally if this was Albert Belle’s rap sheet you’d have a Scarlet Letter on him for eternity.
As for the ‘impact on the game’. Mac, Sosa, and Bonds happened to be in the right place at the right time to take advantage of a game that had lost its place in the American consciousness. And how did they do it? By cheating.
Give Dawson, Rice, and Mattingly steroids, and then see how they compare to these guys.
Always good to read about baseball and its players, I’ve played since a kid..
Can I ask though – how did you get this picked up and into google news?
Very impressive, is it something that is just up to Google or you actively created?
Obviously this is a popular blog with great data so well done on your seo success..