Crouching Players, Hidden Stats

By Kyle Soppe

 

If you’re looking for statistical inconsistencies and other odd trends, this is the place for you. Let’s take a look at what we’ve seen so far, and what it means for the rest of the season.

We will start where the season ends, with the Super Bowl. Five of the last seven champions have had their bye week before week seven.  The Packers of 2010 reversed that trend last year, but it seems it is the teams who get their rest early in the season who have super success. This is bad news for the Patriots, Packers, Saints, and Steelers this year if you buy into this trend.

Another Super Bowl trend; the two teams to play in last year’s big game gave up the fewest and second fewest points against. Who would have thought that through seven weeks, we would have a stat that currently points to a 49ers and Ravens Super Bowl?

We are constantly told how the NFL is progressing to a passing league, but don’t overlook the little guys doing the kicking duties. No kicker has averaged 10 points per game since Jeff Wilkins in 2003, but if the season ended today, we would have two. The Cowboys Dan Bailey (10.8) and the Saints John Kasay (10.4) are kickers in powerful offenses that could very easily keep this pace for another 10 weeks.

The old adage, “you run the ball to set up the pass”, no longer rings true. Of the teams ranking in the top 10 in rushing attempts per game, only half have a winning record. On the flip side, of the bottom 12 teams in rushes per game (12 because it was a three way tie at 10), half have a winning record. If you have a good QB, it seems that running the ball, or even attempting it, is no longer correlated in the success of your team.

We’ve got a winless team that seems to be a step below the rest (the Dolphins were at least competitive before getting Tebowed) in the Colts. When it comes to winless teams, the 2008 Detroit Lions are golden standard. In parenthesis, the Lions stats are provided for comparison’s sake. This year’s Peyton Manning-less Colts surrender 32.1 points per game (32.3) while only scoring 15.9 points per game (16.8). The juggernaut in Indianapolis averages 280 yards every week (268.2) and only gets 15 first downs per game (14.6). The numbers don’t lie; this Colts team is on the fast track to futility.

As bad as the Colts have been, the Packers have been good. They have won 13 straight (including postseason), but they need to come on strong if they want to be considered as dominant as the 2007 Patriots. The Packers have a point differential of +13.07 during their run, while the Pats were winning weekly by 19.7 points.

The best receiver over the last 16 games; Andre Johnson? Larry Fitzgerald? Roddy White? Nope. And if you’re thinking Calvin Johnson, you’re close, but still not right. Big Ben’s favorite target in Mike Wallace has been the most productive over the last “season.” Through seven games this year and the final nine of 2010, Wallace has pulled in 79 balls for 1,590 yards and 11 scores. Over that span, he has been remarkably consistent, recording 10 games of at least 100 yards. Megatron, who is off to a record start this year and came on late last year, has 80 catches for 1,261 yards and 14 TD’s. The numbers are comparable, but Wallace is looked at as elite or in the same class as Johnson. Wallace has Johnson topped in 100 yard games over that span (10-6) and plays on a run first team.

Onto the Johnson’s passing partner, who seems to be ready to fill the gap we will feel if the Peyton Manning days as we know them are done. Matthew Stafford has played in 20 games thus far, and we all know he produces when healthy. Play along with me, and chalk his first 10 appearances as time to get his feet wet. Since then, he has completed 60% of his passes for 2,447 yards and a sparkling 22:5 touchdown to interception ratio. His score to turnover mark for starts 11-20 bests today’s elite QB’s. Tom Brady (17:9), Peyton Manning (20:12), and Aaron Rodgers (22:11) all failed to produce in that fashion this early in their careers. Sure, injuries have plagued Stafford, but a healthy Stafford could be the next annual pro bowl selection with limitless potential.