Tale of the Tape – Rays @ Red Sox

By Kyle Soppe

 

Plot:   Raise your hand if you saw the Rays making this interesting. Look around and there no hands raised. OK, this is a website, so I wouldn’t be able to tell if you were raising your hand, but the point remains. The Rays have won 8 of 9 (through Monday), with 5 of those wins coming over these Red Sox and the Texas Rangers. They have gotten extremely hot while playing at their excuse for a baseball field in St. Petersburg, and will have to win on the road to continue to threaten the BoSox. This series is the middle of a 10-game road stretch for the Rays, who trail the Boston by only four games for the wild card spot. They have made up ground with superior pitching, as they have allowed three or less runs in 7 of their last 10 contests. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have seen their powerful offense shut down in September. Of their 11 games this month (in which they are 2-9), the have scored four runs or less seven times. Slumps like this have been few and far between for the Sox, who rank second in the league in runs scored this season. These two talented teams played less than a week ago, and the Rays took all three games, including one against Boston ace John Lester. The stakes are high for both teams, but this is Tampa’s last shot, as they end the season with a much more difficult schedule.

 

Setting: Jeremy Hellickson (12-10 2.96) will oppose Kyle Weiland (0-1 6.75)as this series kicks off on Thursday. Hellickson has pitched well against Boston this year, recording two quality starts in three outings against them this year. However, both quality starts were at home, while he struggled with command when pitching at Boston (five walks). On paper, Hellickson doesn’t match up well with this Boston offense. He has surrendered 19 homers on the season (including at least 1 in 12 of his last 15 starts) and his pitch count often elevates quickly against patient offenses. His job isn’t to be dominating, but rather to get the Rays into the 7^th inning with a chance to win.

Rookie Weiland has only made four major league starts, including a no decision against the Rays only a week ago. He has more walks than k’s this year, but it is a small sample size. If there is a positive from his first month in the majors, it is that he has only surrendered one HR. The Sox will need to score runs to win this game, something they are capable of.

The second game of this 4 game set features James (insert own nickname) Shields (15-10 2.70) squaring off against Josh Beckett (12-5 2.49). Shields has embraced the ace role of late, winning his last four starts while only giving up three runs in 35.1 innings. The most recent of his victories was against Boston, as he scattered seven hits in 8.1 innings. He has pitched at least eight strong innings against the Red Sox in 3 of his 4 starts against them this year. The inning eater has more than doubled his career CG total this year with 11, tops in the majors. With their workhorse on the mound, this is a must win for the Rays.

Beckett is Boston’s big game pitcher, and if they drop game one, this game could determine the momentum going forward. Beckett is coming off of an ankle injury that forced him out of his start on September 5^th. His last start against these Rays was back on July 17^th, a start in which he gave up only a single hit in eight innings of work. We have seen “good Beckett” this year, and I expect him to step up to the challenge.

Jeff Niemann (10-7 3.97) tangles with Jon Lester (15-7 3.07) in a pivotal game 3. Niemann’s numbers aren’t on pace with the other starters in the Rays rotation, but he has owned the Red Sox this season. He has seen them twice this season and has gone a combined 17 innings allowing only five hits and two runs with 20k’s. Another stat in Niemann’s corner is his success on the road. He has won seven of nine decisions, and his ERA is 1.5 runs lowers away from St. Pete. He is an average pitcher, but it is hard to ignore his successes against Boston.

Lester took the L in his last start against the Rays, but has been rock solid other than that start. In 5 starts previous to Sunday, he had given up one earned run or less. Lester should have plenty left in the tank, and he is another ace to trust in a big spot.

The series wraps up on Sunday, where the wildcard spot could be up for grabs. The Rays are going with David Price (12-12 3.40) while the Sox trust Tim Wakefield (7-6 5.13). Price has been good, not great of late. He hasn’t given up more than three runs since August 7^th, but is only 3-2 over that span. However, the Price has been right against their division rival this year: 25% of his wins this year have come against Boston.. WARNING .. Price tends to give up HR’s in bunches, something that happened two months ago when he gave up 3 round trippers to this very lineup.

The Red Sox knuckleballer is fresh off of win #200. Wakefield has been more of an all or nothing pitcher these days, as the knuckleball is either impossible to hit, or impossible to miss. With young hitters, led by the speedy rookie Desmond Jennings, Wakefield will look to capitalize on their aggressive nature. The veteran should give the Sox about six innings, and if he can limit the damage, the Sox will be in good shape.

 

Final Words: The Rays are among the top 5 in stolen bases this year and are 75% effective when deciding to run. On the flip side, the Red Sox rank in the bottom half of the league in catching base stealers, only throwing out 25% of them. If the numbers hold, the Rays should be successful on 3 out of every 4 attempts, and that type of advantage could loom large late in a close game. Boston ranks in the bottom 5 in number of quality starts. The Rays hold opponents to a .235 average, 2^nd best in the MLB and even better than the team some are crowning as the NL Champs.

 

Soppe Score: The stats seem to suggest the Rays. They are a youthful team that is catching fire at the right time. That being said, I like the grit and experience of the Red Sox. Terry Francona has been here before, and they have too much talent to be kept down for long. I believe Lester and Beckett will deliver for the Fenway faithful. A split would put the Sox in good shape (they play the O’s down the stretch when the Rays get the Yanks), and I’ll say they do one better, and take three out of four.