By Kyle Soppe
Setting: The top two wild card teams in the AL do battle at new Yankee Stadium for a three-game set starting Tuesday night. The Yankees are a game back of the BoSox in the East, and are seven games clear of these Angels, who trail the Rangers by one game in the West. The offense has dominated for the pinstripes, ranking in the top top in the MLB in slugging percentage, OPS, HRs, walks drawn, and RBI, but the surprising strong pitching staff has made them more of a complete team. The Angels rely on superior pitching and timely hitting. Aces Jered Weaver and Dan Haren have paced a pitching staff that boasts an impressive 3.35 ERA and has thrown the 2nd most innings in the league. Ervin Santana has been on fire of late, throwing at least 8.1 innings in his last three starts which included a no-no in Cleveland 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately, of that trio, only Haren will get a look at the Bombers. With division leaders Boston and Texas being heavily favored in their upcoming series, neither the Yanks or Angels can afford to drop 2 of 3.
Plot: The Angels will throw Dan Haren (12-6 2.81) in the first game of this series. Haren has been hot all season, and his last 9 starts show just that. Over that span, he has gone 6-1 with 7 quality starts. Whenever he or Weaver are on the mound, the Angels know they have a chance to win. The Yankees have given Haren a bit of trouble in the past, but have trouble beating him. They have 52 hits in his 50 innings against them, but Haren has pitched in and out of trouble and owns a 4-1 career record. The Angels will be counting heavily on Haren, as Weaver and Santana won’t appear in New York.
Hisanori Takahashi (3-2 3.35) will pitch in the second game, his first start this season. The 36 year old lefty is expected to fill Joel Pineiro’s spot in the rotation, and serve as a band aid until Jeff Weaver returns. Although a small sample size, Takahashi has a 1-0 record versus the Yanks in his 2 starts. In 12.1 career innings pitched versus New York, he has yet to give up an earned run. He may be on a pitch count, as he hasn’t pitched more than 2 innings this season, and the revamped pen in Los Angels will get a workout.
Rookie Tyler Chatwood (6-8 4.10) will pitch Thursday’s matinee, his first career appearance on the big stage in New York. With a season WHIP of 1.53, Chatwood will need to be much better than that to give his team a chance. The Yankees have a potent, but patient, lineup that will take what they are given, and make the most of it. One stat in Chatwood’s favor is his ability to keep opponents in the ballpark. With only 9 homers given up this year, he has the potential to limit the middle of the Bombers order that features Mark Teixeira (32 HRs), Curtis Granderson (28), and Robinson Cano (18). If the bullpen is beat up after the game on Wednesday, Chatwood may have to throw his 100 pitches, regardless of how effective he is.
The Yankees will miss out on their pitching ace as well, as C.C. Sabbathia isn’t slated to start again until Friday night. Phil Hughes was expected to start the Tuesday opener, but he pitched out of the bullpen in Sunday’s 3-2 extra inning loss to Boston, and will be unavailable to start this game. It is still undetermined who will serve as a spot start in the first game.
A.J. Burnett (8-8 4.54) will be pitching on Tuesday, looking to break a winless streak that dates back to June 29th. Burnett has the ability to strikeout many batters, but if his pitching aren’t moving, then tend to straighten out and are very hittable. His last start was one of those nights, as he gave up 13 hits and 7 earned runs against the White Sox. If there is going to be an offensive show, this figures to be the game.
The series finale will see the resurgent Bartolo Colon (8-6 3.33) pitch against the Halos. Colon has given up more than 3 earned runs only once since May 23rd, and that’s all he is counted on for. With the statistically top offense in the league, holding the opponent to 3 runs or less will be good enough on most days, and has been for Colon this year. That theory of damage control was evident in Colon’s last start vs LA, where he gave up 3 runs in 5.1 innings, but earned the victory. The Yankees can put extreme distance between themselves and the field for the wild card, but more importantly, they have the opportunity to keep up with Boston in the divisional race.
Final Word: Baseball is a game of averages, and when you put people on base, the odds of winning improve. The New York Yankees rank 2nd in the league with a .344 on base percentage while the Angels rank 22nd with at .312. With most of the top pitchers being unavailable for this series, the ability to score runs will be vital. In high scoring games, both teams will need to take full advantage in keep piling the men on base.
Soppe Score: I typically back the Angels, and believe they have what it takes to make a playoff run. However, I don’t think they match up well at all in this series. Dan Haren gives them their best shot to win, and he must pick up the win if the Angels want any chance at salvaging this series. I do believe he can win, but they will not win the series. Yankees take at least 2 of 3 now, but if I am Joe Girardi, I want to take the steam out of the Halos sails with a sweep. If the Angels were to make the playoffs, they would be a tough out for anyone, but in a series that won’t feature a Cy Young candidate in Jered Weaver and the hottest pitcher in the MLB, I don’t see them limiting the Yankee offense.
Wally says
Agree with you, Kyle. This sets up as two wins for the Yankmees, with about a 25% chance of a NYY sweep, since Weaver won’t pitch. Another factor favoring the Yanks is playing in NY.
Wally says
One thing I’ve been keeping an eye on this season is whether Ichiro will notch another season with 200 hits so he can stand apart from Pete Rose as the all-time leader with eleven 200 hit seasons. He already holds the record for consecutive 200 hit seasons. Ichiro started the season very slowly and is currently hitting only .269 (he’s a career .327 hitter). It’s not looking very good right now for him to get to 200 by season’s end. With 127 hits under his belt after 114 games (48 games left), he’ll need to play in all remaining games and average 1.52 hits per game to get there. Ichiro is capable of that, but I wouldn’t bet on it. But I hope he gets HOT and makes it interesting.
Here’s the all-time list for 200 hit seasons (note the other active players on the list — Derek Jeter and Michael Young):
Ichiro Suzuki 10 (holds consecutive years-record)
Pete Rose 10
Ty Cobb 9
Paul Waner 8
Lou Gehrig 8
Rogers Hornsby 7
Charlie Gehringer 7
Wade Boggs 7
Derek Jeter 7
Sam Rice 6
Al Simmons 6
Stan Musial 6
Steve Garvey 6
Chuck Klein 5
Kirby Puckett 5
Tony Gwynn 5
Michael Young 5
Casey says
Does Ichiro play for the Angels? The Yankees?
Wally says
Do you?
Smitty says
I am confused.. Is this about the game or hits leader?
Obviously a key for the Yankees is how well A J Burnett pitches tonight. The Yankees bullpen pitched a lot over the weekend, so any rest he can give them will be big.
Is it just me or do the Yankees not miss A-Rod? Might this be some incentive for them to try and trade him after the season?
Casey says
I BET that will be a tough decision for the Yanks.
Did I just say that?
Kyle Soppe says
I dont see them trading him. To much on the contract, and hes getting up there in age. He can still hit, the potential is there for him to play the hero type, and come up big down the stretch. You know, something Arod typically does ….. not!