By Chas
I read from a pretty reputable source recently that, historically, there are about 35 players active at any given time who go on to become Hall of Famers. So, I thought it would be a fun discussion to try and predict who the current 35 or so would be.
For the purposes of this exercise, active is defined as any player who played in 2010, so while we know that a couple of the guys I listed below have already decided to retire, they still fall into the pool of candidates.
Here are 30 that I came up with for an initial list. By no means am I trying to say these are the “no-brainers.” In fact, at least a few of them are based on the prediction that they’ll continue to produce in a way that will result in a Hall of Fame career. Obviously, in order to come up with such a list, there have to be some very young guys on it.
I also thought it would be useful to list the players by position. You’ll probably notice that there are generally 2-4 for each position, except starting pitcher, so this initial list has some balance, as I think it should.
C Ivan Rodriguez
C Joe Mauer
1B Albert Pujols
1B Ryan Howard
1B Miguel Cabrera
1B Joey Votto
1B Prince Fielder
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Chase Utley
2B Robinson Cano
SS Derek Jeter
SS Hanley Ramirez
SS Troy Tulowitzki
SS Omar Vizquel
3B Alex Rodriguez
3B Chipper Jones
3B David Wright
3B Evan Longoria
3B Ryan Zimmerman
LF Manny Ramirez
LF Carl Crawford
LF Ryan Braun
CF Ken Griffey Jr.
CF Jim Edmonds
RF Ichiro Suzuki
RF Vladimir Guerrero
RF Jason Heyward
DH Jim Thome
DH David Ortiz
SP Roy Halladay
SP Johan Santana
SP CC Sabathia
SP Tim Lincecum
SP Felix Hernandez
SP Adam Wainwright
SP Justin Verlander
RP Mariano Rivera
RP Trevor Hoffman
RP Billy Wagner
A couple other things worth noting:
1. For the most part, these are predictions about who will make the Hall of Fame, rather than players I think are or will be deserving.
2. The possible exception to the above note is the PED issue, which is the only factor that might prevent a few of these guys from getting in. However, I really do think those above with that particular cloud hanging over their heads will eventually be inducted.
Who’s going to be the first to share your opinion? Who am I missing? Who am I crazy for including on this list? I know there are quite a few other guys who belong in the discussion, but whom I left off, either based on the fact that I think they’ll tail off, or because I’m simply less certain about them than others.
Great post, Chas. Here are some initial thoughts:
What about? Omar Vizquel, Matt Cain, Paul Konerko, Jason Heyward, Cliff Lee, Alexei Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez, Justin Morneau
Not so fast! Billy Wagner, Jim Edmonds, David Ortiz
Thanks Wally.
I thought about Vizquel…I just was having a feeling he’s going to get the shaft, but I think when I expand the list to 35, I’m going to put him on it.
Cain is an excellent call, but he’s going to have to finally put it all together, which he seems poised to do.
Konerko and Aramis Ramirez: good careers, but I doubt it regarding HOF.
I thought about Morneau, as well as Mark Teixeira, but opted for other 1Bmen.
Heyward’s a possibility. Alexei Ramirez is 28 already, but not out of the question.
Cliff Lee is an interesting case. He’s 32 already, only has 102 career wins, his 3.85 career ERA and 112 ERA+ are nothing to brag about, and despite all the postseason success, he hasn’t won a World Series…so I’m not sure if he quite gets the Schilling-esque extra credit. I just have a feeling he’s more likely to end up like Orel Hershiser than a Hall of Famer. But, that’s just speculation. The potential is certainly there.
Now to talk about the three you questioned. Well, they’re among the more borderline guys, but here goes:
Wagner, I have to admit, may be more based on how I think he’s deserving rather than what will actually happen, but he’s the greatest LH reliever of all-time, and other than the saves, is way better than Trevor Hoffman:
Wagner: 422 saves, 187 ERA+, 0.998 WHIP, 3.99 SO/BB
Hoffman: 601 saves, 141 ERA+, 1.058 WHIP, 3.69 SO/BB
Jim Edmonds: Don’t forget his 8 Gold Gloves to add to his impressive offensive numbers. But, maybe not. I’m not really sure how the voters will see him.
I think Ortiz has the numbers to add to his postseason resume and five consecutive top 5 MVP finishes, but the steroids cloud may drop him from borderline to below.
Where does Wagner stand on the all-time saves list? What does his post-season resume look like?
“Edmonds” just doesn’t scream HOF to me … in fact, it doesn’t even whisper it. Looks like a lot of PED era HRs to me.
Ortiz is a one-dimensional player headed to the Hall of Very Good, IMO.
What about our new MVP, Joey Votto?
Wagner’s 5th all-time in saves. His postseason numbers aren’t good (he bombed for the Mets in the 2006 NLCS), but Hall of Fame decisions shouldn’t be based on 11 innings pitched.
What is it with people referring to great hitters as one-dimensional players? Lots of one-dimensional players in the HOF, particular when that one dimension is hitting. News flash: Ted Williams was a one-dimensional player, if that’s your definition.
If Ortiz gets knocked for being one-dimensional, why doesn’t Edmonds get more credit for being an all-around player? Hit for average and power, good on-base guy, had speed (although not a base-stealer), fantastic center fielder, great arm. And let me not leave out the fact that he’s a center fielder, not a corner outfielder or first baseman. His number are more valuable as a center fielder than they would be at one of those positions.
Please don’t compare Ortiz to Ted Williams … probably the greatest hitter EVER … who also played the outfield and could run around the bases without having to stop and rest at second base.
Re: Edmonds … let’s talk when Dale Murphy gets elected.
Anyone ahead of or near Wagner on the saves list who’s Hall-eligible but not yet elected? How many years did Wagner fire his bullets in the cavernous Astrodome???
I’m not comparing Ortiz to Ted Williams. I’m just revealing the flaw in your “one-dimensional player” argument.
The Edmonds-Murphy comparison is relevant, but as I said originally, the point here is not “who should be in the Hall of Fame,” but rather “who I think will be elected.” Maybe Edmonds is a stretch, but his candidacy isn’t based on Dale Murphy getting elected.
Wagner played half his career in Houston, but I’ve already explained to you what ERA+ (park and league adjusted ERA) is, and Wagner’s is incredible. Lee Smith and John Franco are ahead of him on the career saves list, and neither one of them is anywhere near as good.
One more thing about Jim Edmonds and then I’m done discussing him. He should be compared to center fielders of his generation more than he should be compared to Dale Murphy. He may very well be on this list because I was lacking for a second center fielder, and was thinking there should be at least two at each position. Torii Hunter, Grady Sizemore, and Carlos Beltran seemed like the best other options. Maybe if Andruw Jones hadn’t gotten old at 30, we’d be talking about him.
I admit … Edmonds was a GREAT fielder, which is key at that position. Lots of web gems! So why do you think Edmonds will be elected, given that Murphy isn’t even close? And Murphy is a two-time MVP. And you don’t think Edmonds power spike was “aided”?? 😉
Wagner must have played most of his Houston years in the Juice Box as opposed to the Astrodome, which was a pitcher’s paradise.
A couple of more seasons like his last, and Cano will move into the category of lock.
Dustin Pedroia will make his way into the group.
Funny how a few years ago Alfonso Soriano would have been included. Man, how he has fallen.
Good to see Vladdy listed. Not sure he will ever make it to Cooperstown, but he is fun to watch.
Great post Chas! Keep ’em coming.
I’m far from certain about Edmonds, and I’m even less so after this discussion. And, he didn’t have that noticeable a power spike. He hit 42 HR twice, but he also hit over 25 eight other times. We’re not talking Brady Anderson or Luis Gonzalez or Bret Boone here.
I thought about Pedroia, Casey. I just have a feeling he won’t sustain his high level of production long enough to be a HOFer…but he’s been proving people (including myself) wrong every step of the way. I could see Cano dropping off too, but he seemed to take huge forward strides this year, including defensively.
Soriano crossed my mind too, but you’re right. He has fallen far and fast.
I think Vlad has a much better chance than you think. The only active player with more RBI whose younger than Vlad is A-Rod. I think he may also get support from those who think he was a clean player in the steroid era and (although I’m not advocating this) for the “how good we might have been factor,” since it’s widely discussed that playing on that turf in Montreal ruined his knees.
I’m going to make this list a work in progress. I’ve bolded the players who are definitely staying. That leaves six I’m considering removing. I’ll note players I add after the fact in italics. So far, that’s just Omar Vizquel.
Here are some other names I’m considering adding: Yadier Molina, Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander, Scott Rolen.
Who else? Jorge Posada? Is Posada going to be a Hall of Famer? I don’t know.
Youkilis? Pedroia? Youkilis got kind of a late start, and I just don’t think Pedroia’s going to have the longevity.
Smitty?
Todd Helton, Bobby Abreu, Tim Hudson, Joe Nathan, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright, Miguel Tejada, Jon Lester, Andruw Jones.
Carlos Zambrano and Jake Peavy are still young enough to bounce back.
Carlos Zambrano will never make the Hall of Fame. He may implode at any time now. Million dollar arm, two cent head. No way.
I’m inclined to agree with that, Wally. I’m just throwing out names…and waiting for Smitty to come back with his suggestions of Clay Buchholz, Ryan Kalish, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Daniel Bard and Rory McIlroy. 🙂
Hamilton should earn his way on to the list.
I’m thinking that Josh Hamilton is earning his way on to the list… Support Edmonds being on the list- his problem is the Jim Rice problem: dominate for many years and then hang on a little too long… at least with Rice I could remember what team he was on last season… while he is not there yet, Papelbon could join your list with a “recovery” year… Ortiz is not on my list until Edgar Martinez gets in and paves the way for DH’s…
Sorry it’s been so long… I have missed the splinters…
Welcome back, Muels. That’s a great point about Ortiz. Since we’re talking about who we think will get into Cooperstown, not necessarily arguing worthiness, Edgar Martinez will be a good litmus test for the candidacy of other career DHs such as Ortiz. Martinez’s second-year drop-off in support does not bode well.
Interestingly enough, baseball-reference.com lists one of Martinez’s nicknames as “Papi.”
The problem I have with Josh Hamilton is he turns 30 this year and he’s only played the equivalent of three full seasons. He seems injury-prone and, I hate to say it, “falling off the wagon” prone. He’s either going to tear it up for the next five or so years and be one of those guys with such an awesome prime that they’re impossible to overlook, or be plagued by injuries and inconsistency. If I had to guess, I’d go with the latter, so I’m not adding him to my list of HOF predictions. But, that’s just me.
This is not necessarily intended to make any point, but I want to throw it out there that, when evaluating closers for the Hall of Fame, save percentage should be considered. So, among those with over 350 career saves, here are those numbers (1st column: save %, 2nd column: saves, 3rd column: blown saves):
M. Rivera 89.0 559 67
T. Hoffman 88.8 601 76
T. Percival 86.3 358 57
B. Wagner 85.9 422 69
D. Eckersley 84.6 390 71
L. Smith 83.7 478 103
J. Franco 80.8 424 101
J. Reardon 77.6 367 106
I guess those didn’t format very neatly, but I’m sure the numbers can be deciphered.
Good point about Hamilton’s age. It’s easy to forget he’s 30.
Great point about Martinez first and then think about Ortiz. Papi has had a nice little run for a few years. Not really sure if he gets a chance to read a speech near the shores of Lake Otsego.
Papelbon? I’d like to put him in my own personal hall of fame for the athlete on a favorite team I’d most like to smack in the face. 🙂
Re: Papelbon, I’m not adding any young closers to my list. It’s so hard to predict what’s going to happen with them, let alone figure out how the HOF voters will perceive them. There’s already a lot of discussion about whether or not Trevor Hoffman is a Hall of Famer, which really surprises me. He’s not the no-brainer than Mariano Rivera is, but he should be a pretty easy choice. Take a look at the Saves percentages I shared above, and that will show you a big difference between him and Lee Smith.
I’m going to look at the list from those that i think will definitely make it and then leave the leftovers of the 35 spaces up for debate…
1. Pudge
2. Mauer
3. Pujols
4. Jeter
5. A-Rod
6. Chipper
7. Longoria
8. Griffey Jr.
9. Ichiro
10. Thome
11. Halladay
12. CC
13. Rivera
14. Hoffman
Anyone disagree with those locks??
Dan —
I would say that Longoria, Mauer and Sabathia are not locks. Mauer and Longoria only have a handful of years completed (but agree they were very good years … but projections with so much time left are tricky).
Convince me about CC’s great chances to get in.
Pudge might suffer from the steroid snub.
Is Halladay a lock?
Is it fair to compare Halladay https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml
to Ron Guidry? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guidrro01.shtml
I agree with Wally that “locks” is the wrong word to use to describe those players, but I would say that Longoria is the most tenuous of the three.
Mauer’s already been an awesome offensive catcher (and his position is an advantage) for six years and won three Gold Gloves. Of course, if he has a career-ending injury tomorrow, he’s not going to the HOF, but if he has a few more peak years followed by a handful of pretty good years, he’s probably in.
The thing about CC is he just turned 30, and every active pitcher with more wins than he is at least 35, except Roy Halladay, who’s 33. Of course the same doomsday scenario applies to him as it does to Mauer, but he’s looking like a pretty strong candidate to continue to produce at a high level and become a lock.
I wonder too, and I’m just thinking out loud here (so to speak), if being a successful Yankee free agent pitcher will work in his favor. Think of all the guys who came to New York and failed to deliver, then he signs this enormous contract and becomes the ace on the staff that brings a World Series back to the Bronx. That might make you sick to your stomach, Wally, but you can’t deny that it might be an extra credit factor.
Casey, if Halladay falls off a cliff after age 34 the way Guidry did, then yes.
Again, lock was probably too strong of a word, but I think I get what Dan was trying to say. There’s some element of predicting future performance here.
Taking steroids into consideration, the only guys who are truly locks (that is, if they retire without playing another game, they’ll be definite HOFers) are:
Albert Pujols
Derek Jeter
Chipper Jones
Ken Griffey Jr.
Ichiro Suzuki
Jim Thome (although who knows if he falls into the Bagwell category)
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman
Wally is not the only one sick to his stomach. 🙂
Yeah, and it probably will make Smitty throw up in his mouth a little, just like any mention of Super Bowl 42 (my Roman is lacking) does. 🙂
Hahaha – HELMET CATCH!
Okay, I take that one back. Couldn’t control my impulses. 🙂
It occurred to me that I should look at the demographics of the list. That is, the average age of a MLB player is about 27.3 years, and the average age of the 31 guys listed here is 32.8. There are 8 players 27 and younger, and 23 players 28 and older.
Median age would be a better thing to look at, since the median is probably closer to 29 or 30, but I can’t find that. Regardless, I probably have too many guys over 30 on the list (21 vs. 10 under 30).
First… Wasn’t Andruw Jones 30 when he came into the league?
Secondly Chas – at least throw a young American golfer in there like Ricky Fowler.
I know I am not supposed to throw any Red Sox players into this, but how about Jon Lester? If you are going to throw Matt Cain into this discussion – how does Lester not make it in?
Chas, I agree with you on Pedroia.. for right now. A bounce back season and I think he has to be in the discussion.
Another thought.. If you use a pitcher playing in a “Juice Box” to help – don’t you have to use it as a negative for a hitter?
So someone like Joey Votto – who I am not 100% sold on being on this list – gets hurt for playing in the Great American Juice Box.
My argument for C.C. would be a similar argument to Halladay. Think about the last 7 or so years. Think about the next 2-3 years. Are there any pitchers in the entire league that you would rather have than one of those two as your ace? I know some people might say Cliff Lee or some other top pitcher, but you wouldn’t be able to make a stronger argument than the argument for Halladay and C.C. No one would be disappointed to have any one of those as their ace.
My argument for those two consists of longevity (consistent aces, probably for a 10 year span), the comparison to their contemporaries (no pitcher during this time is easily arguable as “better”), and in-season durability (both of them give you tons of quality innings, and both will keep you in nearly every game that you start).
I keep seeing the “wins” argument against them. As baseball afficianados as you are, you must see that pitching is so much different now than it used to be. 5 man rotations, 6 inning expectations, closers, more attention given to minor injuries, etc. All of those factors contribute to less wins.
I think that you must compare players to other players of their era and see how they match up. The reason why Babe Ruth might be considered the best player ever is the same reason why these two should get in. Compare them to their contemporaries.
As a fan of Casey’s favorite team (while I must admit my loyalty and passion does not equal his) I would dread facing either one of those pitchers at any point in the regular season or the post-season. They are definitely 2 of the top maybe 3 or 4 pitcher over the last full 7 years with at least a couple of years left for each. That’s 10 years of being in the top 3 or 4 at your position (starting pitcher none the less) in the league.
This would be my argument for those two.
As for Pudge…come on…great nickname, great player, every average baseball fan knows who he is (and not because of a scandal), a very tough position to have long term success at, many all-star appearances. He reminds me of Ozzie Smith. Long career, above average success, best fielder at his position, big name, fan draw. He should be in.
Longoria and Mauer, yes they were predictions, but both of them are pure hitters with sustainable and consistent swings. (To understand the argument, think about Jose Batista, in my opinion, 1 year wonder) As a baseball coach and someone who has given and been around a number of lessons, these guys have the nuances of a good consistent swing. I do have 1 fear for each of them, Mauer’s position (catching takes its toll), and Longoria’s team (no one to hit around him for long, although he will probably sign a huge free agency deal with the Yankees or someone in the next couple of years) But, as I stated earlier, I do think both will prevail and are future lock hall of famers.
Again, just an opinion…
Great to see you chime in, Smitty.
I’m not sure if I get the Andruw Jones joke, but he was actually 19 when he came into the league.
I’m not 100% sold on Votto either. I added him after the initial list (as I did with the other names in italics). But, the thing is, if you’re going to make a list like this, you have to “guess” with the young guys.
Lester’s was mentioned in the comments, and I don’t think you’re a homer for suggesting him. I think you’re a homer for plenty of other reasons, actually. 😉
I might add him to the list. I think he’s a good suggestion, and maybe a better bet than Adam Wainwright, since Lester is two years younger.
Great points, Dan. Regarding CC’s win total, it should work in his favor. He had 148 wins by age 30. Here’s the list of guys who have reached 150 by that age:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=yssF
Not all of them are Hall of Famers, but the two most recent are Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux. Add Dan’s argument about the era he plays in, and that’s pretty impressive company.
I should have mentioned that the list I linked to above is post-deadball era (1920 to present).
I’m a bit surprised no one has mentioned Adrian Gonzalez for at least being in the ballpark, so to speak, of consideration at first base. While his career batting average is south of .300, his power numbers are consistent and impressive. Granted, he trails Pujols and Howard, but he’s still a formidable player.
I echo what Muels says about Jonathan Papelbon. He could be a contender.
After just half a season, it would be premature to put Buster Posey into the mix at catcher. But those of us who follow the San Francisco Giants closely will speak up at the first opportunity if he stacks up strong performances in 2011 and 2012.
Great call, Dan, on Adrian Gonzalez. I actually thought of him, and wondered the same thing as you, but forgot to throw his name out there even as I was just rattling off names to see what people thought.
We’ll all definitely be keeping an eye on Posey, but for right now there are other young guys I’d pick first…although his position has to be taken into consideration. That is, offensive standards are lower, especially for good defensive catchers.
By the way, this is a different Dan from our regular commenter. This Dan is someone who’s become one of my internet friends over the course of the last couple years, between his comments on my blog and mine on his, the very cleverly written Ball Caps Blog: https://ballcaps.wordpress.com/
Thanks Dan, and welcome to the Pine!
Dan —
I agree … good point about Gonzalez … gotta be the “San Diego off the radar screen factor” at play here.
Buster Posey has great tools and great potential. Could be another Mauer … hope so!
Hey, Chas and Wally, thanks for the response. I’m tacking on the extra D to distinguish myself from the “original” Dan. 🙂
That West Coast off-the-radar thing is a reality in baseball, and I was thinking about that today with the NFL playoffs in full flower. I think it’s not as much a factor in the NFL, because most games air on the weekends and are built around viewer schedules.
In baseball that ain’t the case. And I say that with some authority, having lived in all but the mountain time zone.
Great post – great discussion!
Dan D … even the Alaska time zone? Hawaii? Talk about off the radar 🙂
So anyone who was watching some college hoops today saw ESPN’s bottom screen banner flash “Brett Favre is retiring” (Thank God!) every 5 mins. It also flashed some of his record stats. What struck me were his TD passes (508) and INTs (336). Wonder how many current Hall of Fame QB’s have a TD/INT ratio as bad as Favre’s 1.51.
I know this was a baseball post, but the subject was relevant since Favre, before today, was indeed an “active player and future HoFer”. Favre’s legacy is the consecutive game streak and reviving the Packers into a power for a few years. But other than that, is he really a Top 10 all-time QB like many folks would suggest?
In case anyone’s interested, I made some final adjustments:
-Added Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Justin Verlander.
-Removed Joey Votto, Omar Vizquel, Jim Edmonds, Jason Heyward, David Ortiz, Adam Wainwright, Billy Wagner.
That’s my final list. 32 players in total. Thanks for your help, everyone.