By TLarner
Gather around all you pine riders. It’s August and pigskin is in the air. Introducing our new NFL analyst: TLarner. Take a seat for a spell as T gives you his first in a series of NFL previews.
Down. Set. Hike…
Buffalo Bills
Strength– The Buffalo Bills look to end an 11 year playoff drought. In order to do so this season, they will have to continue the strong defense they played in 2009. The Bills were a surprising second in the league in passing yards allowed with 184.2 per game. They were also second with 28 interceptions. The secondary was led by rookie safety Jairus Byrd. Byrd started 11 games and recorded a league high nine picks (tied with Philadelphia’s Asante Samuel). Star middle linebacker Paul Posluszny has sat out of practice since the start of training camp, recovering from an offseason groin surgery, but should be ready for the start of the regular season. As Buffalo switches from a 4-3 to the 3-4, last year’s first round pick Aaron Maybin tries to prove that he is not a bust as a pass rushing specialist. He’ll be replacing the two time Pro Bowler Aaron Schobel, who led the team with 10 sacks last season. Schobel was released this week after not reporting to camp. The Bills drafted defensive tackle Torell Troup and end Alex Carrington in the second and third rounds respectively to strengthen the line.
Weakness– While the Bills have a trio of quality running backs, including C.J. Spiller when he finally signs a contract, neither one will run very far without an offensive line that can pave the way. The Bills gave up 46 sacks in 2009, fourth worst in the league. Injuries devastated Buffalo’s “Big Uglies”. Center Geoff Hangartner and guard Andy Levitre were the only two to start all 16 games last year. Demetrius Bell, returning from a season-ending knee injury, has moved to the left tackle spot. But with only eight starts in three seasons, Bell lacks the experience needed to protect the quarterback’s blindside. Eric Wood, the second of Buffalo’s two first round draft picks in 2009, looks healthy at training camp after breaking his leg 10 games into last season. In an attempt to prevent more serious injuries, Head Coach Chan Gailey is mandating that all offensive linemen wear knee braces on both legs. A healthy line should have time to solidify in the preseason.
Biggest Question– The Buffalo Bills have had a question mark at the quarterback position since the days of Jim Kelly over a decade ago. The QB battle is once again a spotlight at this year’s training camp. Trent Edwards has been taking snaps with the starters, with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm splitting time with the second team. Edwards started seven games, and gained 1,169 yards in the air, with six touchdowns and seven interceptions. Fitzpatrick threw for 1,422 yards, nine touchdowns, and 10 picks in eight starts. Brohm did make one start in 2009. Buffalo also drafted Levi Brown out of Troy in the seventh round, although he most likely see no action this season as he learns the offense. Whoever is named the starter for Week 1 hopes to improve a stumbling offense that finished with 157.2 passing yards per game.
Miami Dolphins
Strength– The Miami Dolphins have a solid ground game behind Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Williams led the team in rushing yards with 1,121 and 11 touchdowns, his first 1,000 yard season since 2003. Brown was the feature back in 2008 with the resurrection of the wildcat offense, but was limited to only nine games due to injuries in 2009. During those nine games, Brown rushed for 648 yards and eight touchdowns. Together, along with Pat White entering his second year in the wildcat, the Dolphins look to ease quarterback Chad Henne into his first full year as the starter with a heavy dose of the ground game.
Weakness– The Miami defense finished near the bottom of league in total defense. The 24.4 points allowed a game was ranked 25th, and the 349.3 yards per game they gave up was 22nd. Their pass defense was 24th overall. They cut Joey Porter, and lost Jason Taylor to the New York Jets, who together combined for 16 sacks. The Dolphins did add linebacker Carlos Dansby through free agency, who played six seasons in Arizona. They also addressed the holes on defense through the draft, with six out of seven picks used on defensive players, including the 28th overall pick, defensive tackle Jared Odrick.
Biggest Question– Besides the signing of free agent linebacker Dansby, the biggest splash made by the Dolphins was the acquisition of Pro Bowl wide receiver Brandon Marshall from Denver. The disgruntled receiver was traded for two second round picks, one in this year’s draft which helped the Broncos trade up for Tim Tebow, and another in 2011. Marshall had 4,019 yards receiving and 25 touchdown catches in four seasons with the Broncos. Marshall had offseason surgery on his right hip. Last offseason, he had surgery on his left hip. He appears to be 100% in Miami’s training camp. Coach Tony Sparano and the rest of the Miami organization are ready to see if Marshall can continue to post all-star numbers without the baggage he carried in Denver.
New England Patriots
Strength– When I think of the Patriots, there is one name that comes to mind: Tom Brady. After suffering a season-ending knee injury in the first game of 2008, some wondered if Brady could return as the same Pro Bowl quarterback. He did. He completed over 65% percent of his passes, threw for over 4,300 yards and 28 touchdowns. His 96.2 QB rating was the second highest of his career (117.2 in 2007 when he broke the touchdown mark with 50 in a season). Once again, expect Brady to put up outstanding numbers as he and the Patriots try to win their division for the seventh time in eight seasons.
Weakness– When looking at the Patriots defense in terms of statistics, it is hard to consider them a weakness on the team. New England was fifth in points allowed with 17.8 per game, 11th in yards with 320.2, and held opponent’s offenses to the second lowest time of possession in the league. However, they were tied with Carolina for 23rd in sacks with 31. Linebacker Adalius Thomas was cut in the offseason, and Derrick Burgess has yet to report to camp. The Pats did address the linebacker positions by taking Brandon Spikes from Florida with one of their three second round draft picks. Rutgers cornerback Devin McCourty was taken 27th overall to add depth to the secondary. While the Patriots try to get younger on defense, they also become less experienced. Where are the tough, smash-mouth leaders like Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, and Rodney Harrison? Let’s see if the New England defense can find an identity and continue to produce in the stat column.
Biggest Question– Wes Welker passed his physical, and began practicing at training camp, after undergoing major knee surgery seven months ago. He admits he is not fully recovered and will continue to wear a brace on his knee. Bill Belichick expects to have Welker, who had over 110 receptions for the third straight year, healthy and on the field for the season opener, lined up next to Randy Moss. Moss, now 33 years old, hopes his age won’t slow him down in 2010. In a Week 2 loss at New York, Moss was shut down by the division rival, catching four passes for only 24 yards. Against Champ Bailey in Denver, Moss had 36 yards on his only catch as the Pats fell 20-17. In a win against Carolina, Moss again recorded only one reception, but also lost a fumble. In the 33-14 blowout loss to the Ravens in the 2010 Wildcard game, Moss was held out of the end zone. This offseason the Pats added veteran wide out Torry Holt. Holt, 34, best known for his outstanding performances with “The Greatest Show on Turf” in St. Louis, had career lows in receptions, yards, and caught no touchdowns in Jacksonville last year. Can these three receivers overcome age and injury, and get the job done in New England?
New York Jets
Strengths– Is their really any question on what is the New York Jet’s strength? With Rex Ryan calling the shots, no team was better on the defensive side of the ball than the Jets. First in the league in points allowed per game (14.8), first in yards given up per game (252.3), and first in passing yards allowed (153.7). Darrelle Revis, who Ryan believed should have been Defensive Player of the Year, had career highs with six interceptions and 31 passes defended. Should the Pro Bowler either end his holdout or agree to a contract the Jets offer, look for him to take more reservations for “Revis Island”. Massive nose tackle Kris Jenkins is currently on Physically Unable to Perform list due to a hamstring injury. Jenkins suffered tore his ACL in his left knee last season, but is not worried that injuries will prevent him from playing when the regular season arrives. A third player to watch is inside linebacker David Harris. Harris recorded 127 total tackles and five and a half sacks. With the addition to corners Antonio Cromartie and first round draft pick Kyle Wilson, as well as defensive end Jason Taylor, the Jet’s defense should remain solid.
Weakness– Can the team that led the NFL in rushing yards in 2009 have questions in the backfield heading into 2010? With 172.2 yards per game on the ground, the Jets used a smash mouth style of football to run all the way to the AFC Championship game. Thomas Jones was the star of the backfield in the regular season, and for the fifth straight year, ran for over 1,100 yards, and had a career high 14 touchdowns. In the playoffs, former Iowa Hawkeye Schonn Greene pounded out 304 yards and two touchdowns. In the offseason, New York did not offer the 31 year old Jones a contract, inside signing veteran Ladainian Tomlinson. Whereas Jones has improved with age, Tomlinson has stumbled to career lows in yards and per carry average. Both Greene and Tomlinson will have to work hard to replace the production Jones has provided the Jets over the past few seasons.
Biggest Question– Mark Sanchez was able to manage the New York offense last season. He threw for 272 yards and one touchdown in a win over Houston in the season opener, and 265 and two touchdowns in a thriller against Miami. Although the Jets lost to the Dolphins, Sanchez flashed his signs of brilliance. With wide receiver Braylon Edwards entering his first full season with the Jets, and the addition of Santonio Holmes from Pittsburgh, New York has weapons and should give Sanchez more responsibility in the offense. Can he avoid the sophomore slump that has haunted many rookie stars in the past? We will find out this season if Sanchez has what it takes to truly become the franchise quarterback.
Division Prediction
While the Buffalo Bills continue to rebuild under Chan Gailey, the offense just does not have what it takes to make a serious run at the playoffs. The Dolphins should have a respectable offense with Brown and Williams on the ground and Marshall making his spectacular catches. I see this division coming down to New England and New York. The Jets have a few weeks to get Darrelle Revis into camp. If so, the New York defense should be enough to win the AFC East.
Check out AFC North preview on Tuesday, August 10
T,
Great job picking up the pigskin and running with it.
Man the Jets schedule will test them. Non-division games against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Green Bay and at Denver. That could be five losses right there.
Welcome, TLarner! Lots of information in here … well done!! (I was surprised to see anything written in the section labeled “Bills Strength”. Ha … jk. 😉
Those discussing such topics down here in Houston (4 sports radio stations … LOVE IT !!) wonder if the Bills can win more than 5-6 games.
I think the Dophins biggest ? is their QB … Henne still has a lot to prove. But yes, the defense also needs improvement.
Your pick of the Jets is pretty sound, I think.
Casey —
Against those 5 teams you mention, I see the Jets going 3-2. Tough games … yes … but the Jets are pretty good! They will do very well in AFC East games.
A question the Jets will have to answer: was it Thomas Jones? Or was it the offensive line? If it was Jones, Sanchez may struggle.
Don’t get me wrong. Jets are a sound pick.
6 wins for the Bills – as many as last year. But they will get a foundation this year.
The Jets are too overrated for me, they lost the best thing they had on offense in Thomas Jones, Greene is really injury prone, and LT is washed up, but thinks he can still be the #1 back, that will cause problem, mark my words.. That could leave alot of pressure on Sanchez, who i am not too sold on. I think the Patriots win the division, by 2 or 3 games.
But, the tide is turning in the AFC East look at all of the key free agents the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets will have after this season, no way the re sign them all. The Bills have barely any key players that are set to hit the market. I really really hope Trent steps up and plays like he did when he first started his career, then i can see the Bills being a playoff contender in 2011. Chan is the man,
First of all, thanks to everyone who has taken the time to read my first article.
As far as the Jets, I think they added enough to make up for what they lost. Holmes for a fifth round pick is a steal. Yes, he is suspended for the start of the season, but Jerricho Cotchery and Laveraunes Coles and Kellen Clemens can make up for his absence. Jason Taylor should have enough left in the tank as a situational pass rush. And for the backfield, the coaches must have seen something they liked with Greene and L.T. to get rid of Jones and Leon Washington. I see the Jets winning 10 to 11 games. It all depends on if Revis joins the team. He is a major factor if they plan on returning to playoffs
And for my beloved Bills…
I like the backfield. A little earth, wind, and fire like the Giants had a few seasons ago. The defense has real potential if the secondary plays as well as last year. Mark, I must say I disagree with you on Edwards. I’m hoping Fitzpatrick gets the job this year. I saw the Bills play the Pats at home last year. When Fitz got injured and Edwards came in, what little life was in the offense deflated. He seemed like he had no confidence in his throws. The AFC is too strong to see them making a playoff run within a year or 2
T,
I agree with you – Revis is the keys for the Jets. Are the Jets getting better on offense? Yes and no… Sanchez with a year under his belt will only be better. Greene if he stays healthy – will be better then Jones. The Jets did lose a couple of key people on their o-line and replaced them with rookies. That might be a problem with the running game and if LT can’t hold up – more responsibility falls on the shoulders of Sanchez.. Can he hold up?
If Revis continues to holdout – it takes away from the Jets defense. WIth the lockdown corner, coordinators feel free to blitz and really get after the QB. If you don’t have that confidence that your corners are locking down the hot routes – are you blitzing? So much of Ryan’s defense is about getting after that QB – forcing them to make mistakes they don’t normally make. Revis’ availability is key.
As for the Pats – this is a weird year for them. They are clearly in the process of re-loading. Getting rid of Adalius Thomas was cutting dead weight. It was obvious he never fit in with the Pats and they had to cut him loose. The Pats linebacker corp is young, but athletic – that makes them extremely dangerous with BeliCHICK. Jerod Mayo is the real deal. It remains to be seen how the transition works for them… Rumor has it, they are going after free agent Aaron Schobel. Certainly makes it interesting..
Travis,
Great and detailed article, very cool stuff! Keep up the great work!
Coach Marean
I did not pay attention enough last season. Had no idea Buffalo’s passing defense was that good. Geez – makes our offense seem even worse. I’m down in ACC country so I’ve seen Spiller play a lot. He is amazing. Clemson is a train wreck of a program, but Spiller would make plays that would make your jaw drop. Reggie Bush USC-type plays (minus the luxury apartment for mom, fancy car, and probably thousands of dollars). I’m excited to see him sign and ready to play. I still think we’re doomed because we don’t have a QB worth a darn. Edwards seemed like a real tease two seasons ago.
I don’t know much about football. Let me ask you, T: would you have drafted a quarterback with your first overall pick in these past three drafts if you were the Bills? Just seems like we have passed up on some good prospects.
Great preview by the way! Welcome!
Rey,
Thanks for reading. Your question is a good one. Its easy to say who the Bills should have picked after seeing the prospects play a season or two. For the past few seasons, Buffalo has trusted that their young QB’s would develop into stars (J.P. Losman & Trent Edwards) rather than take a QB with a high pick. Scouts obviously saw something they liked in Losman & Edwards to convince the front office not draft another QB. Some names they passed up (not including QB’s taken in the top 5):
2010-Tim Tebow, 25th overall to Denver; Jimmy Clausen, Rd 2 to Carolina; Colt McCoy, Rd 3 to Cleveland
2009-Josh Freeman, 17th overall to Tampa Bay
2008-Joe Flacco, 18th overall to Baltimore; Chad Henne, Rd 2 to Miami
2007- Brady Quinn, 22nd overall to Cleveland; Kevin Kolb, Rd 2 to Philly; Tyler Thigpen Rd 7 to Minnesota
When looking at the history of the Bills last few drafts, they haven’t completely missed. When looking from 2007 to 2009, some of the Bills quality picks include Aaron Maybin(will prove his worth this year), Eric Wood, Jairus Byrd, Andy Levitre, Shawn Nelson, Leodis McKelvin, Demetrius Bell, Steve Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, and Paul Posluszny and Derek Schouman. Yes, not every player is a Pro Bowler, but these are guys who look to make big contributions to this year’s team (there are a few more names I could have listed). As fans, its easy to say the Bills wasted some draft picks in the past few seasons, but I have to trust that the NFL scouts know what they are looking for when evaluating prospects.
With the Bills’ line play of late it is hard to judge any QB. How many times are those guys forced into passing situations?
Fitzpatrick is the last guy any Bills fan wants to get the job. He is terrible. Trent came in against the Patriots, and was sacked twice, and then was hurt, but deflated? There was no offense to deflate. Trent gives us the chance to win, he has shown that when healthy. He should not have been taken out by Fewell after the Titans game, he actually played decent.
Andrew Luck is the man i want leading the Bills, next season.