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Pickin' Splinters
Rochester's Independent Sports Source
Pickin' Splinters
Rochester's Independent Sports Source
I think it’s time for some predictions, given the ALCS and NLCS are about to start and there’s a few CFB match-ups of great interest this weekend. Just to be clear, my predictions are based on my brainwaves as i’m trying to take the hopeful heart out of it. Let’s get started:
ALCS: Yankmees win in 6 games. Their offense and pitching just appear stronger than the Angels, plus they have homefield advantage in a very intimidating venue. I said it in April, I’ll say it again … this is NY’s year. But I’ll be rooting for the Angels.
NLCS: Phillies over the Dodgers in 7 games. When I look at Philly, I see a very complete and talented team up and down the line-up, both in the field and at bat. Do they have a weakness? Okay … maybe a shakey closer situation … which Lidge will show up??? But adding Cliff Lee to Cole Hamels kinda cemented a NL pennant for them in my mind. Dodgers have a chip on their shoulder and will really compete, but I don’t think it will be enough. I’ll be rooting for the LADs though, as I’d like to see Torre possibly face his former employers in the WS.
Red River Shootout: Oklahoma nips Texas 27-24 in the Cotton Bowl for a slight upset. Texas has started slow in many games this year and this time it will bite them.
USC at Notre Dame: Well, you know I’ll be rooting like heck for the Irish, BUT my brain isn’t drinking the gold kool-aid. I just don’t see ND’s defense stopping USC’s running game enough to be able to put frosh QB Matt Barkley into many pressure passing situations … and forcing big mistakes. And I’ll be surprised if ND holds USC under 30 points. The Irish haven’t really stopped anybody on defense this year, except for Nevada on the scoreboard in Week 1. On offense, the Irish will really miss injured Michael Floyd in this one. But the real key for competing in this game will be ND’s O-line being able to protect Clausen AND to sustain a decent running game to keep USC off-balance. The Irish will have to score 30 points to have a chance … and I’m worried about that … but a little luck in the form of a +2 or +3 turnover margin in ND’s favor is the thing that could make it close. Pains me to say this, though, as my brain predicts USC 31 ND 23. (But the heart says ND wins 30-28 due to a +3 luck-of-the- Irish turnover margin) 😉
Let’s see your predictions for these or any other games.
Here’s something to check out, the leaders in baseball over the last decade –
https://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/02/final-weekend-for-leaders-of-the-00s/?scp=1&sq=player%20of%20the%20decade&st=cse
I was going to write up something about it, but never got around to it. What amazes me (and it desn’t take much, really), is A-Rod leads in three categories, runs (1188), home runs (433), and runs batted in (1236). I’m not a fan of his, and he sounds like quite the jerk in Canseco’s second book, but he must have gotten the best batch of steroids in the decade.
Okay if we are making predictions:
ALCS: Angels in 6. I know I am going opposite of what Wally said, but I think the Angels are a complete team. They don’t just hit home runs – they hit, steal bases and create alot of opportunities to score. They have alot of different ways to beat you and I think that is essential in trying to beat good starting pitching. Their starting pitching has been great. Don’t get me wrong – the Yankees are playing well, but right now the Angels are playing with a higher purpose. I think that has them playing like a team that is possessed. Should be a very good series – I am going with the Angels.
NLCS – I agree with Wally. The Phillies are a complete team and right now I think their starting pitching is better then the Dodgers. The Dodgers are starting Clayon Kershaw in Game 1 and he could lights out or his pitch count could be in the 100s by the 4th inning. I am not sure I want my bullpen taxed after Game 1 and I think that it might happen in this situation. Phillies lineup is solid and really has Manny Ramirez really done anything lately? He has been really quiet.
Texas over Oklahoma – It is Colt McCoy’s year.
USC over Notre Dame – I am going with 45-28. I just don’t see Notre Dame’s defense stopping USC. They haven’t stopped anyone that has mattered, so why would it start now?
I like the Dodgers in 6 and the Angels in 5 = a “freeway” World Series !
USC beats ND 31-13 for their 8th in a row over the Irish !
Oklahoma over Texas…Wisconsin over Iowa in Mad-Town…
Chugiak HS over Bartlett HS for the Alaska state football championship !
Brady Quinn to the Rams !
A great sports weekend ahead…Enjoy all !
Crash —
Great call on the Badgers over the Hawkeyes! Chugiak over Bartlett would be a pretty big upset (ala ND over USC), but I hope you’re right on that one!!
Hey … you wouldn’t happen to be a SoCal native, would ya?!?!?!
Smitty —
It’s really the Yankmees pitching that has me giving them the edge … esp with Rivera closing games out. Their respective offenses are great, albeit with different styles, and I think they offset eachother. NY has a pitching edge IMO. (But again, I hope the Angels win it).
Has anyone ever really analyzed Rivera’s pitch, and what makes it so hard to hit? I’ve been watching that thing on tee vee for years, and it doesn’t look like it should be that much of a problem. Of course, bloated with beer on the couch, nothing seems like it’d be a problem, aside form getting up. But seriously, what’s the deal? Why can no one seem to hit it?
Bill —
A friend of mine and I were just discussing this the other day. Our joint conclusion is that Rivera’s fastball is one of the “all-time great unhittable pitches in history ” … right up there with the WalterJohnson/Nolan Ryan fastball, Whitey Ford/Bert Blyleven curveball, Bruce Sutter’s split-finger, Wilhelm’s knuckler, etc.
Now why is it so effective? It’s essentially a very fast slider that cuts into a left-handed hitter, but without the distinct slider spin giving it away to the hitter. Even though everybody knows it’s coming, the movement is so sharp to Rivera’s left that it jams the lefty hitters or is at the end of a righty’s bat. Did anyone see Joe Mauer totally bust his bat into saw dust during that series??? Rivera has been doing that to everyone for ~15 years.
The fact that Rivera continues in a role that usually has a life expectancy of less than two seasons is amazing. Then to consider the level he has been at and for over ten years is otherworldly.
I’d like to know what the top ERAs of the 60s were.
Here you go, young skywalker – https://www.articlesbase.com/baseball-articles/major-league-relief-pitchers-the-top-10-bullpen-stars-of-the-1960s-1305146.html
I agree with everyone. It seems that shelf life for closers is really only about 5 years or so – Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have definitely been the exception to that rule. Each has an absolutely devastating out pitch. Rivera with his cutter and Hoffman with the change-up.
I am sure you are wondering I am not putting Papelbon on this list. Yes, I am a Red Sox fan, but I am also realistic. I thought Paps digressed this year and flirted with danger ALL season and it finally caught up with him in the ALDS. Personally, I think his shelf life is starting to grow stale. I know the Sox have a closer in the wings with Daniel Bard. Could he be the future Sox closer?
I think it is time for a “Dear Theo” letter..
How many closers have been successful for five years? I realize that successful is a relative term.
Bruce Sutter?
The one guy I would definitely add to Rivera and Hoffman on the list of closers who have been successful for five years and counting is Joe Nathan. Papelbon needs one more year (I think you’re writing him off too quickly Smitty), and Francisco Rodriguez needs a bounce-back year to be on the list.
Exactly! Sutter, Rivera, Hoffman, Nathan, Rodriguez – add Rollie Fingers, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Goose Gossage to that list. Who did I forget? Dan Quisenberry had five good years – but not consecutively as did Mike Marshall. I think the expectancy for a closer (a reliever who finishes a game) is closer (adjective) to two years. That makes Rivera inhuman. Especially when you consider how many of those games have had playoff implications.
Don’t forget Lee Smith and Jeff Reardon in that conversation..
Dennis Eckersley, John Franco, Billy Wagner, John Wetteland, Tom Henke.
Even adding those names to the list, I’m pretty sure everyone agrees with you, Casey. These guys are the exceptions, and Rivera is the immortal.
Agreed Chas – Rivera is the immortal in all of this. His level of performance has been incredible. In some ways, he has provided a problem for the Yankees in their use of Joba Chamberlain. If he had shown any decline in the last couple of years – would we see Joba starting? 2 years ago, he seemed the likely candidate to replace Rivera, but he is making it impossible to think a successor plan needs to be in place for a couple more years.
I am not writing off Papelbon yet. Personally, I think he was jumping the gun himself, calling himself the best closer – besides Rivera. I thought he struggled all year. I also think you may see the Sox trade him this off-season – because of Bard waiting in the wings. He has one year left and I don’t think they are going to give him $10 million a year. He might be one of their best bargaining chips this off-season – especially when looking for a couple of big bats.
Chas – my point was the amount of years, on average, you can expect a closer to be successful.
Back to predictions … esp on ND vs USC … after listening to or reading all the “experts” predictions on the various websites and ESPN, including the couple above, the concensus is that USC will win by 7-17 points and on average by more than the spread (10). Only 10% of the “Experts” pick an ND victory!!! Since I can’t find fault with the overall analysis … heck, I predicted USC will win by 8 … my expectations are …. shall we say …. quite LOOOOOOOOOOOOW.
I’m now resorting to prayer … cuz that’s what it’s going to take to beat USC.
GO IRISH … may the Lord be with you!!!!
How about the Pickin’ Splinters connections here at MaxPreps. They had Chugiak (Wally’s world) and Aquinas v. McQuaid (Casey and Smitty’s alma maters) as Top 10 games of the week in the nation! Check it out:
https://staging.maxpreps.com/news/1gMenrlMEd6OEwAcxJTdpg/alaska-playoffs-highlight-top-10-football-games-of-the-week.htm
You guys know who won these games?
AQ won in OT, 31-24.
Chugiak plays Bartlett for all the state marbles at 8:30pm Eastern time today. Oldest daughter is a Chugiak graduate and another one will be in May 2010. I’ll be there.