First of all, I have to apologize that a third consecutive Friday will pass without a Mount Otsego entry. Smitty and I just can’t seem to get our acts together at the same time lately. However, we promise that next week we’ll be facilitating a discussion of the greatest shortstops of all-time. Really…I swear…we promise.
To fill the void, I considered borrowing from my own blog and posting about my recent trip to Turner Field in Atlanta, the 30th major league park I’ve visited in my lifetime. That total actually includes 10 stadiums that are no longer active, so I still have a ways to go to get to all of the current ones. But, as I was thinking about re-writing it a bit to make it more suitable for this site, I got another idea.
Yesterday, Randy Johnson became the 24th pitcher in major league history to notch his 300th win. A lot has been written and discussed about the near-extinction of the 300-game winner. Many think that Johnson may be the last of a dying breed, that the nature of today’s game is making it virtually impossible for a pitcher to accumulate this many victories. Could this be true? Will there ever be a 300-game winner again? One thing’s for sure…if it does happen, we’re going to have to wait quite some time until we see it again, especially considering we’ve just seen four guys get there in the past six years.
Following Johnson on the career victories list, among “active” pitchers—I use the term loosely because two of them haven’t thrown a pitch in the majors this season—are Jamie Moyer (250 wins/46 years old), Andy Pettitte (220/37), Pedro Martinez (214/37), John Smoltz (210/42), Tim Wakefield (184/42), Bartolo Colon (153/36) and Livan Hernandez (151/34). Barring a miracle, none of these players has even the slightest chance of reaching the milestone.
In my opinion, the three pitchers with the greatest chances of reaching 300 are Roy Halladay (140/32), CC Sabathia (122/28) and Johan Santana (116/30). Actually, Sabathia will turn 29 in July, so he’s really only one year younger than Santana and three younger than Halladay, both of whom had birthdays within the past few months.
Despite the fact that Sabathia is younger and has more wins, I consider Santana to be the leading candidate to be the game’s next 300-game winner. Since his first season as a full-time starter—2004—Santana has earned 86 wins in five seasons, an average of 17.2 per year. Sabathia has won 74 in the same time frame, although he has really begun to peak over the last three years.
Sabathia has been a regular starter since the age of 20. That’s more than eight full seasons, thus accounting for his current advantage. On the other hand, being under 30 and having just signed a long-term deal with a team that almost certainly will give him plenty of opportunity to be a consistent big-time winner is a factor that weighs in his favor.
After some injury troubles in his late 20s, Halladay has remained healthy for the past three full seasons. Still, if he wins 12 more games this year, then averages 18 over the next five years, this would put him at 242 at the age of 38. It would then take 4-5 more solid years after that to get to 300. So, I’m considering him the biggest long shot of the three.
If Santana wins 10 more this year, then averages 17 over the next six years, this leaves him at 228 at 36 years old. Even based on these more conservative estimates than those I used for Halladay, he would then be within striking distance if he puts together a couple more good years followed by a few solid ones. This still makes him a long shot, but not nearly the long shot that Halladay is.
Regardless, it’s going to be at least 10 or more years until someone even gets a whiff of the 300 mark. So, once again I’ll ask the question…will there ever be another 300-game winner? Who do you think has the best chance to do it?
Since you put it that way – none of the above.
Yeah, playing for the Yanks should help Sabbathia if he doesn’t get whiplash watching balls leaving the launching pad.
Friggin’ Mussina had to go and retire 30 wins short.
Cole Hamels will win 15 per year for the next ten seasons. That will put him in range.
Did you try the yardbarker quiz yet?
Chas —
I agree that nobody in that Top 5 current wins list (Moyer-Hernandez) has a chance … unless Moyer pitches until he’s 51!!!! I don’t think any of the 3 younger guys you mention will do it. Santana is awfully talented, but I think he’s gonna be injury prone throughout his career …. he’s kind of a slight guy and there’s something I don’t like about his motion … too much stress on the shoulder. Sabathia will have a fat attack and be done at 34. I actually like Halladay’s chances more than the other 2 because of how good a pitcher he is, but as you point out those chances aren’t real good from looking at his current wins and age. But I think he’ll possibly surpass averaging 18 wins over the next 5 seasons, but he’ll still be short. Maybe he can pitch to age 42?
Anyway, do I think we’ve seen the last of the 300 game winners? Nope … someone’s gonna do it before we die … he’s just not in the big leagues yet. Some middle schooler out there today is gonna debut at age 19 in the majors six years from now throwing consistently at 95 mph with movement and a smooth, fundamentally sound motion … and be blessed like Ryan or Clemens with a great body and hardly any injuries. This pitcher will retire at age 40 with 308 wins and 5 Cy Youngs.
Do you have somebody in mind Wally? 😉
One point that I didn’t make, that Wally sort of did, is that guys seem to be pitching older than they used to…or at least did in the earlier parts of my life. Nolan Ryan seemed like a freak when he lasted until his mid-40s, but recently two HOF caliber pitchers have done it, and Moyer’s no slouch either.
Sabathia’s kind of an enigma to me. On the one hand, you’re right that his weight could be a concern, but on the other hand, he’s the biggest innings horse in the majors right now. He could go the way of Bartolo Colon, or he could turn out to be more like David Wells, except more talented.
Casey, what’s a yardbarker quiz?
Chas —
No … I don’t know who it is, but every generation there’s one or two “freak of natures” that come through … kinda the way Nolan Ryan was for us. Some kid who just turns out to be a horse and blessed with a great arm, a good head, great work ethic, and some luck. It’s got to be somebody who’s not doing it just for the money … it’s got to be a kid who is reading blogs like this or SI and says “I’m gonna be that guy!” … “I’m gonna be the next Randy Johnson”.
I’d like to say the next 300 game winner will be my son, but I was instead blessed with 5 daughters 🙂 Two of them are currently playing fast pitch softball (8th and 5th grade) … maybe one of them will pitch in college … who knows? But it’s fun to speculate.
Wally – are you saying that Clemens has a good head?
yardbarker quiz is above – just to the right of the title for this article. Try it without doing any prior research.
I noticed it after I asked the question. I actually didn’t do all that well at this one. I only got 15 out of 20. I drew a blank on Ryan Howard, Luis Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez and Hack Wilson. I didn’t realize Kiner was on the list, but I should have got the other four. Actually, Ortiz tied Kiner and Mantle, but I guess yardbarker gave him an asterisk.
Casey —
Clemens didn’t need to make the bad decisions he apparently made. Same story as Bonds. Without the banned substances, he woulda been HOF caliber. He naturally had all the tools he needed, but he got way too greedy.
So to answer your Q … no, lately Clemens has been an idiot. And he’s probably been an idiot for the past several years.
One problem with Santana getting to 300 wins – he plays for the New York Mets.