2009 NBA Draft: Who Should Stay and Who Should Return to College

All NBA draft prospects have the month of June to make their final decision of whether to stay or return to their collegiate programs.

Some have already forgone their college eligibility by hiring an agent. There remain, however, a host of players who have not and thus can still return.

There are many players still left that could benefit from another year of college. Some have more to prove, some have potential to meet, and some need to learn that basketball isn’t all about how big and fast you are.

Then there are several who I think should “strike while the iron is hot” and hire an agent to remain in the 2009 draft. These particular players have reached their peak at the collegiate level and may actually hurt their stock if they return.

Let’s start with those who should go ahead and hire an agent and remain in this year’s draft:

Shawn Taggart – Memphis

Taggart is twenty-four years old. He can return for a senior season if he wants, but what’s the point? Memphis has a new coach, lost recruits, and no Tyreke Evans.

Taggart is a big forward (6’10” 238 pounds) who is good defensively (1.4 blocks a game) and a solid rebounder (nearly 8 a game).

Every NBA team needs a role player with size at some point. Though he might turn into a journey man, it sounds as if Taggart has done all he will do at the collegiate level.

Derrick Brown – Xavier

Derrick Brown has great potential due to his size and versatility. Chad Ford says that he can play the three or the four.

Brown may be the best player in the draft in terms of playing around the rim, and he draws comparisons to Lamar Odom. Both can go inside or out, as well as handle the ball (though at 6’10”, Odom has the exceptional ability to anchor the fast break).

If all the tools are in place for Brown, he might as well get schooled by the professionals.

Greivis Vasquez – Maryland

Vasquez’s position in the NBA is his biggest question. He averaged 17.5 points per game his junior season, but his decrease in his field goal percentage (43 percent to 40 percent this past season) concerns scouts.

He can get to the lane well and shoot over people at 6’6″, but Vasquez’s play seemed sporadic at times. If he can stay at the point-guard position and show the scouts strong decision-making during workouts, he can work out somewhere.

Returning to Maryland will put more pressure on him to control the team better as a senior.

Tyreke Evans – Memphis

Evans is in this discussion because I don’t know whether or not he has hired an agent. However, he has made it no secret that he will eventually hire one and will not be returning to college.

Evans can play either guard position in the NBA and at an extremely agile 6’6″, he will be a defensive dream for an organization if they can convince him to play it every night.

Patrick Mills – Saint Mary’s

Mills has performed well against NBA competition in the Olympics, scoring 13 points against the Team USA despite playing without center Andrew Bogut. The two teams met up again in the quarterfinals, where Mills had 20 points, three assists, and no turnovers.

As a sophomore, Mills averaged a little over 18 and nearly four assists per game. Whether or not he returns to Saint Mary’s, Mills has something that the rest of the point guards other than Ricky Rubio may not get: international competition. This will probably prepare him just as much as another season in the WCC.

Scottie Reynolds – Villanova

At 6’3″, Reynolds will have to man the point. He has a knack for scoring and creating shots for himself, but questions exist whether or not he has the IQ to be an effective point guard. He nearly turned the ball over as many times as he had an assist this year.

Ultimately, he seems like a college type guard whose game will not translate all that well in the NBA. Shades of Juan Dixon perhaps? Same sizes, similar style games, but when it comes to the NBA their height will severely hamper them. Still, Dixon is still enjoying an NBA career.

Reynolds’ scoring average has not really improved over his three years at Villanova, so he might as well and go ahead and strike that iron.

Luke Harangody – Notre Dame

Harangody’s college accolades speak for themselves: he easily delivered a double-double every night, often flirting with 20 points and 20 rebounds.

If he were to return for his senior year, he’d either have to adjust to another coach or pretty much face a repeat of the previous season. He’s done everything he will do in college and has very little room for growing his skills.

Everything against Harangody is out of his control. He is not big enough to play the four, yet not quick enough to play the three.

He is listed at 6’8″, but only measured in at 6’6″ at the draft combine without shoes on. That’s a scary thought if he absolutely has to play the post in the NBA.

His wingspan was too different than the average for his height either (Pittsburgh’s DaJuan Blair fot example, who was also only 6’5″ without shoes, had a wingspan of 7’2″).

My advice to you is this, Luke:

Strike while the iron is hot, make several million and live comfortably for the rest of your life like Christian Laettner.

Jrue Holiday – UCLA

Holiday was arguably the most highly touted guard out of high school a year ago, but he had a less than stellar freshman season at UCLA, averaging nearly 9 points and four assists per game.

Many have attributed this to Ben Howland’s system not being a good fit for Holiday (though I would disagree) and the fact that Darren Collison was still running the point there. Holiday’s minutes in some games took a big dip as Collison continued to play well over 30 minutes in most contests.

Regardless, scouts are high on Holiday, especially after the draft combine in Chicago this past week. According to some accounts, he ran the floor extremely well and finished with either hand. Holiday also displayed the raw skills needed of an NBA point guard, but at a lanky 6’3″ with a 6’7″ wingspan.

If UCLA is not a good fit for him, why not just go to the draft if the NBA powers that be are still sold? Since another season like 2008 could raise questions, Holiday should not take the chance.

Now let’s move on to those who have not hired an agent and would benenfit from another year in college. These players should return to their respective programs and work on turning weaknesses into strengths before becoming a professional:

Damion James – Texas

It’s unfortunate that size has such an impact on the draft. Damion James is a 6’7″ forward without a perimeter game.

His scoring has increased each year at Texas (15 a game in his junior year). His free throw percentage improved greatly his junior year as well, which is important for post players.

But James will need to become more of a threat from the perimeter to be successful in the NBA.

Nic Wise – Arizona, Devan Downey – South Carolina

The biggest fault for these two is the one thing they can’t control: their height. Wise and Downey are 5’10” and 5’9″, respectively.

Both have averaged 4 and half assists this past season. Downey is more of a pure scorer and averaged nearly 20 a game. Wise has been called more a pure point guard.

Since this draft is heavy on point guards (Curry, Flynn, Rubio, Lawson, Teague, Jennings, Holiday, Mills, Reynolds, Devendorf, Evans), it is probably best they return and hone their weaknesses.

Nick Calathes – Florida

A 6’6″ point guard who shoots nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc? Sounds enticing.

What Calathes is missing in speed and athleticism he makes up for in basketball know-how.

Calathes has averaged a little over 6 assists to go along with his 16 point career average in both of his seasons under Billy Donovan.

Regardless, Calathes could benefit from running a Florida team that should be more competitive in the SEC.

If Calathes’ question mark is his athleticism and quickness, then it would be better to see if he could improve on his assist-to-turnover ratio. He has a 2/1 ratio in his career.

If his athleticism will be the question, then he must separate himself from other point guards by proving his control is unmatched.

Right now, his ratio is below Ty Lawson’s and closer to that of Jonny Flynn’s. Obviously, Flynn brings a little more than Calathes.

Tyler Smith – Tennessee

I had the opportunity to see Tennessee play this year, so it is hard for me to remain impartial. Their offense was stagnant to say the least, which doesn’t bode well for the main option, Tyler Smith.

As a 6’7″ wing, Smith will definitely find a home in the NBA and will be a first round pick. He averaged 17 points per game this past season.

Smith’s game showed signs of his versatility. He could knock down the jump shot, but also showed an understanding of timely cuts and attacking the basket on the back side.

He probably could stay for his senior year and improve his three-point shooting, especially in Bruce Pearl’s offense which relies heavily on the three-ball.

Smith will also need to find that killer instinct as a first option offensively.

Perhaps with a level-headed Scotty Hopson at the other guard, Smith and the Volunteers could become a scary offense that borders nearer aggressiveness rather than timidity.

Jodie Meeks – Kentucky

Jodie Meeks appeared on the national stage after a 54-point performance against Tennessee.

He’s a magnificent shooter (averaged nearly 24 a game on 46 percent shooting, 40 percent from three), but scouts are not thrilled about his size (6’4″).

Meeks’ lack of athleticism and explosiveness to the basket have some teams leery of him as a first-round pick. He is the type of shooter that would thrive with a point guard who can consistently attack the lane and force pinches from the wing.

Without a creator, though, Meeks struggles to get to the basket and finish. If he stays in college and works on his speed and ball-handling, especially in transition, he could thrive despite his size.

And with Calipari signing two athletic point guards, Meeks’ game could really get showcased next year and perhaps result in some hardware.

Jeff Teague – Wake Forest

Point guards are a plenty in this draft. Many see the scoring ability of Teague in all facets of the game and think he will translate well to the NBA.

But the second half of his sophomore season paled in comparison to his amazing first half. This should worry NBA scouts, coaches, and executives more than it has.

During Wake Forest’s 16-0 run to start the season, Teague averaged a little over 21 points per game.

In his last 15 games, his average dropped to 16 per contest, ending with a 10 point, 1 assist, 5 turnover exit in the first round against Cleveland State.

Teague was turnover-prone all season, but the early payoff was his explosive ability to get to the elbow or lane at will and finish in a variety of ways.

Teague probably needs one more year in college to hone his point guard skills. He has the athleticism to create his own shot and score, but does he have the savvy to run a team?

Austin Daye – Gonzaga

By far my favorite player if he stays in college, and my least favorite if he enters the NBA.

Daye is a 6’11” 200 pound small forward with huge upside. His biggest question mark is his slender build and physically weak play at times.

He is young (will be a 20 year old junior) with tremendous upside. He can and will shoot from beyond the arc and is a nuisance defensively when not being physically pushed around.

Daye’s role on Gonzaga this year may have been the issue. Josh Heytvelt was going to be the main post option and the Zags also had solid perimeter play in Jeremy Pargo and Matt Bouldin.

Coupled with guard Micah Downs getting just as much time as Daye, there wasn’t much room left for Daye to have the ball consistently in his hands. If he stays one more year, his minutes would definitely increase from 26 a game.

With three of those options gone (Pargo, Downs, Heytvelt), he obviously steps in as one of if not the main option offensively. Mark Few makes his role clear.

The recent draft combine in Chicago was apparently a success for Daye. He’s been said to have impressed in drills that display his ball handling and shooting prowess with a long 6’11” frame.

Daye has been compared to Kevin Durant, the parallels being their skills set in a lanky but weak frame.