By: Greg Kincaid
With it being March, College Basketball season is starting to heat up as the regular season comes to an end and the conference tournaments begin to heat up. This year, the Big Ten conference has witnessed a very exciting season, with many teams being a pleasant surprise.
Michigan State, who was the favorite to win the Big Ten this season, has lived up to its hype. However, after Sparty nation, all other spots in the Big Ten were battled for, and we learned a lot about how great this conference really is.
The Purdue Boilermakers were another team that was sought to be in contention for the title. However, an injury to Robbie Hummel early in the Big Ten season doomed the Boilermakers early. With Hummel back though, Purdue was playing some of its best basketball, until the Northwestern Wildcats came to town. That is one team that we can’t avoid to talk about.
Bill Carmody has done some of the most respected work this year with the Wildcats. Heading into this season, nothing was expected of Northwestern, except a basement finish with the depleted but competitive Indiana Hoosiers. But after a couple of huge wins at Michigan State and the recent upset over Purdue in West Lafayette, all the national analysts have the Wildcats penciled in as a bubble team. Imagine if the Northwestern didn’t blow such large leads to Illinois, Purdue at home, and that ten point lead at Penn State. If Northwestern knocks off the Nittany Lions, Penn State would not be in the same position they are in now.
That’s right, another surprise in the Big Ten comes from Happy Valley, where Talor Battle and the Nittany Lions finished 10-8 in the Big Ten, which is tied for the most Big Ten wins in school history. The Lions did not help their cause by losing at Iowa, but I think it is safe to say that blue and white is a surprising tournament team, pending their play in the Big Ten Tournament. Just as people thought the Michigans and Minnesotas would be tough this year, the Nittany Lions jumped them both and made things interesting.
Speaking of the Wolverines and the Gophers, I think it is safe to say that these teams are the biggest disappointments. Both teams were highly ranked at one point early in the season, and Michigan had tremendous wins over Duke and UCLA. But after a mediocre Big Ten season for both squads, their tournament chances are now very slim.
Now we head into the Big Ten tournament with still a lot to prove to the country. Here is my analysis of the first round matchups and what I think the rest of the tournament can bring. To check out the entire tournament bracket, go to https://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/MBBBracket09.pdf.
Teams that has most to prove in tournament: Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State
Teams that have the most to lose by a bad tournament: Northwestern, Iowa, Penn State
Sleeper team: Indiana
Tournament upset: Indiana over Penn State in the first round
Cinderella team: Look for Iowa to make it to the semifinals
Tournament Champions: Illinois
Awards
With all the hectic games, the media criticism of the Big Ten and the rising players this season, I think it is safe to say the Big Ten had one of the most exciting seasons in years. Based on performance, I can see six teams making the tournament this season: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State. We will let the tournament committee determine that though. Speaking of determinations, how about the Big Ten awards? This will be very interesting as well, with the players in the conference being so competitive and tight in the statistical categories. Here are my Big Ten predictions…..let the debating begin!
Big Ten Player of the Year: Talor Battle, Penn State
I know, many of you people probably disagree with me. I know that Kalin Lucas could have been another candidate, but I believe Battle has been the most significant player to his team in the Big Ten. Battle as a sophomore, is the top scorer in the conference, and he has turned around a team that was 7-11 last year, to a 10-8 team that is a legit tournament contender.
Coach of the Year: Ed DeChellis, Penn State and Bruce Weber, Illinois
Yes another Penn Stater. DeChellis has done a fine job in turning this team around. As for Weber, Illinois had no preseason respect from anyone in college basketball. Weber will be a coaching a team this march that will probably have a six-seed at worst.
All Big Ten First Team
Talor Battle, Penn State
Kalin Lucas, Michigan State
Evan Turner, Ohio State
Raymar Morgan, Michigan State
Deshawn Sims, Michigan
All Big Ten Second Team
Manny Harris, Michigan
Marcus Landry, Wisconsin
Kevin Coble, Northwestern
Robbie Hummel, Purdue
E’Twaun Moore, Purdue
All Big Ten Third Team
Devan Dumes, Indiana
Demetri McCamey, Illinois
Lawrence Westbrook, Minnesota
Jamelle Cornley, Penn State
JaJuan Johnson, Purdue
Greg —
How can Bill Carmody of NU not be your coach of the year????? I mean … let’s face it … they’re the Northworstern Mildcats. The fact we’re even talking about them on the NCAA bubble is a HUGE achievement vs expecations.
I’m thinking Mich St or Wisconsin will be tournament champs. Iowa in the semi’s? Now you’re definitely going out on a limb 🙂
Thanks for the post … good food for discussion.
Some bold predictions…I love it! Agree 100% with you on Battle. A Penn State basketball player as player of the year in the Big Ten? I need to go load up on water, bread and spam for my bunker.
Indiana over Penn State? Happy Valley can’t be to pleased with your pick there. I wish I could give coach of the year to Creen if he stays. Guy has coached his tail off every game I’ve seen and continues to talk about the positives despite being dealt a raw hand. Then again many could say he realized what he was coming in to. You left out a few predictions:
1) Who is in and who is out of the Big Dance? I have Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, and Penn State.
2) Does Michigan State steal a #2 seed?
I predict: Wisconsin will make it to the BD. MSU will get a two seed.
I surprisingly could see Michigan State at a #1 seed in the tournament. Lets make it clear that UNC and Pitt are locks at a #1 seed. I think the third #1 seed will go to either Louisville or UConn. If both teams have a good Big East Tournament, they could bbe the final #1 seeds. But if one of the two teams has a stronger tournament than the other, then that team will get the third #1 seed. That will leave it down to Memphis and Michigan State battling for the last #1 seed. So definitely, Michigan State is a two seed, and possibly a one.
As for who is in, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin and Ohio State are all locks. Penn State will need to win their game against Indiana on Thursday if they want to get in. Minnesota and Michigan will need a strong tournament if they want any chance to get in the big dance.
Greg —
No chance for Northworstern??? What do they have to do to get in??
Carmody and Northwestern can be a scary first round opponent – a la #16 Princeton almost taking down #1 Georgetown in ’89. Carmody was Pete Carril’s assistant on that team; he is well-versed in a motion offense that can limit an opponent’s strengths.
It does not matter what seed the Spartans get; they will be dangerous. Yeah, yeah, yeah they were eliminated in the first round last year. All the more reason for Izzo to have his group focused. They play defense and rebound like crazed dogs. A trip to the final four is not out of the realm of possibility.
I am trying to figure out Illinois.
Casey —
I agree on Izzo and MSU. They are always dangerous this time of year and are geared for the tournament. Defense and rebounding never has an off-day with that team, so they will be in every game. They have talent and if they get a little bit of consistent “O”, then, yes, certainly Elite 8 and maybe better. Izzo is one of the best coaches in the country.
Yeah and offense for the Spartans means – get within range of the basket, make sure a couple of forwards are within a step of the paint, throw up a shot, and everybody go get it.
It’s not pretty, but hey this isn’t figure skating.
Actually – is figure skating a sport? Pete – this pot stirring thing is catchy. 🙂
I’ll put that one to bed quickly. Holy sit spin, Batman … yes, figure skating is a sport! Don’t necessarily like the way it’s judged and all the politics, etc but the athleticism required to excel in that is amazing.
Re: what is a sport; heck, they want to put ballroom dancing in the Olympics, and ESPN is TOOOO into poker and dog shows. Cheerleading is a sport, so figure skating HAS to be, at least according to Hoyle’s rules of Sports. Problem is, some of those NASCAR cars and thoroughbred horses are protesting letting these marginal sports in. Quarter horses and trotters and pacers however do not seem to mind.
Now to frivolous matters like the Dance and the Big 10! Bill Carmody has a history as an assistant and later as head coach of getting predominantly academic schools into the tournament. I am rooting for him and the ‘Cats to make it and hopefully even win won. Then I am pulling for him to replace Brey at ND. GO WILDCATS! GO CARMODY (to ND)!
Pete —
Great call on Bill Carmody to ND … that’s got my support !
Speaking of the Irish, if things fall right with very few upsets in the other conference tourneys, I think ND can win a bid to the Big Dance IF they can win three game in the BE tourney. Obviously, that’s a BIG “IF” … but let’s say they win 3 and then lose the 4th, they would essentially be 11-11 in one of the toughest conferences in America and 20-14 overall. I think they’d have a good argument. But do I have any confidence at all that they will pull this off? No way … they’ll probably go out and lose to Rutgers later today 🙁 Which of course wouldn’t be all bad since it would probably grease the skids for dumping Brey.
Given Pete’s recent call on where TO would land, and his prediction to the finish of WAI challenge II, I am expecting a Carmody landing in South Bend within six months.
DePaul beat Cincy and Georgetown fell to St. John’s today in the Big East tourney. Is it possible the Big Ten gets more teams in than the Big East? The ACC maybe? It’s still a miserable conference that will see a majority bow out before sweet 16. I like Izzo and Michigan State, too, but they’re personnel just does not match up to some of the other top teams.
I meant to ask earlier if they steal a #1 seed. They may need it. They’ve played nobody. They beat Texas and we’ve seen since that game that Texas is not what we thought they were (thank you Coach Green). They lost to Maryland then got absolutely manhandled by UNC. After that their schedule was a cake walk with overrated Big Ten teams.
Saw an ND student home on Spring break Sunday. Asked him if he was going to NYC to see the BE tourney at all. He said, “Why, to see them lose in the first round?” Wally, I agree that the Irish would have a case if they win 3, but it just ain’t gonna happen. On the other hand, this student, never before a hockey fan, is definitely one now. GO IRISH! (in SOME sport at least)
Georgetown out in the first round of the Big East. Not sure if the question has been asked yet on here – but has there been a bigger collapse then Georgetown this year?
At one point, didn’t they beat UConn and were ranked #2 or #3 in the country? Now – they might not even get a NIT bid..
Somewhere I hear the Shane McGowan and the Pogues singing, ” If I should fall from the grace of God….”
You’re right, Smitty. G-Town’s collapse this year even exceeds Notre Dame’s.
In the bigger scheme of “program collapses”, how does one explain DePaul??? And to some extent St John’s??? Including the BE tournament, DePaul’s record against BE foes this year is 1-19. How can a school with such good tradition, located right in the middle of all that Chicago hoops talent, suck that bad????
DePaul may stink, but they have a great bagel shop right across the street from campus; the CBA (Chicago Bagel Authority). That and one win in the BE tourney is all a school needs to sustain it for YEARS!
PLEASE … Somebody tell ND that the game has started. They’re down 14-2 with 12 mins left in the 1st half. Boy, looks like Brey really got them ready to play again. Gagfest!
Oh – it is ugly. Is it possible that the Irish might not even qualify for the NIT?
Yes, Casey. And it’s also possible this Irish team would not even make the Elite 8 in ND’s annual “Bookstore Basketball Tournament” held on campus every year.
I should keep bad-mouthing ’em … they’re showing signs of life.
Kel: “Bob Huggins and Jimmy Johnson could be related. Dontcha think?”
“If they’re not related, they have the same hairdresser.”
Ha!
As usual, too little and WAY TOO LATE for the Irish. 18 points in the first half is embarrassing, plus essentially the same crappy defense. Don’t bother going to the NIT, they will just lay a big fat goose egg there, too. Don’t bother inviting Brey back either. Just drop him off at his house on the way home and have the secretaries bring all his office stuff to him. I don’t want him setting foot on campus ever again. Take that mock turtle neck and go strangle … er … uh … try to coach over at Toledo or something. Isn’t that where ND sends failed coaches? Bill Carmody, the kid at Butler, Dick Bennett at Wazzou … anyone but Brey. I’d even try another one of Coach K’s bag carriers … is Wojo ready? … ANYONE BUT BREY. Hell, bring in Bob Davie … even he can coach some defense. ANYONE BUT BREY, ANYONE BUT BREY, THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE HOME, THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE NOME …. NOME?!?!?! WHERE’D THAT COME FROM? Oh, that’s where all the mushers are headed … totally subliminal. I gotta quit … I’m losin’ it.
Out.
Anyone else think the end of that comment merits the insight of the week?
See Wally, dogsledding IS a sport – at least it’s in your “sporting consciousness”. If nothing else, no NIT bid seals Brey’s fate. His start this year had left some doubters about his removal, but this finish will convince any doubters that make the decisions. Carmody is my pick, but finding out on the bench earlier that Butler is a Catholic school makes their coach a contender. Didn’t the guy at Gonzaga once express interest in ND? Wish I knew names. Who’s coaching at Xavier? Is it Prosser? Will he come?
Ok Pete – Prosser ain’t comin’. Well not at least in a conscious form. He’s dead.
Hands off Sean Miller at Xavier. 🙂
Mark Few is on the bench at Gonzaga.
Maybe ND can grab Carmody and Fitzgerald and make it a Northwestern sweep.
The last time ND took a Northwestern success he prompted cheers such as “Ara, stop the rain!” Happy hunting (not a sport) grounds! Forgot Prosser died, but few is not a bad option, much to X’s dismay.
I think Northwestern plays today. At least those kids have some HEART and play like a TEAM … hope they do well!
Surely ND can attract one of these fine coaches who are doing very well but somewhat out on the periphery. Hope so … or ND will be DePaul in a couple years.
Minus the aforementioned bagel shop, that is.
Well … so much for Northwestern. But at least they came out READY TO PLAY and didn’t dig themselves a HUGE HOLE, unlike another team I know.
Greg —
Looks like your Sleeper (Indiana) never woke up and your Cinderella (Iowa) turned back into a pumpkin quite early. Sorry 🙂
Northwestern probably plays in the NIT final but not against ND. That would be so fitting though, to have Carmody beat Brey and then take his job too.
I would just like to take this opportunity to thank the UConn Huskies and Syracuse Orangemen for allowing me to be absolutely exhausted today. What a game and what a performance by both teams. Of course if there had been a tenth of a second more – that game would have never gone to overtime.
As Jay Bilas kept saying, ” the mental toughness of these players to keep making free throws while being so tired” – I felt as though he was speaking to me – ” The mental toughness and will by Smitty to stay awake right now is astounding “. It kept me watching and staying awake long after my eyes had tried to close up shop for the evening.
Unfortunately – West Virginia has to be licking their chops right now. Hopefully Syracuse has enough in the tank to get them past the Mountaineers.
6 OTs! Smitty, you the man!
Instant classic! My kids were waiting to play Wii on our downstairs TV, which I was watching this game on. They asked during the 2nd OT and I said, “Sure, right when the game is over”. Little did we all know that it would go to the 6th OT!
Absolutely an instant classic!
Pete – not sure if I am the man or it i was just dumb enough to stay up and watch the whole thing. I kept getting angry at Sean McDonough when he kept saying, ” For those of you not here at the end of regulation, here is what happened an hour and 20 minutes ago. ” Sean – enough!! I know it is late.
Although a great line last night – as they were showing the box score of the game, Sean McDonough said to Dick Raferty – “Okay Dick, take of your glasses and read back the top line..” Raferty didn’t know what to respond with.
A Tale of 2×2 Brothers:
This about sums it up. Two sets of basketball playing brothers, the Hansbroughs and the Zellers, are off to college. In each set, one brother is REAL GOOD and the other is mediocre. One of each set goes to North Carolina and the other one goes to Notre Dame. Guess which one ND got?
That’s right! ND got the mediocre brother in each case … probably cuz they have the mediocre coach whereas UNC has Roy.
The End
Greg – worry not about your failed predictions. We have a history poor prognostications on the Pine. Anybody remember Drew’s Revenge?
🙂
Wally, the story of ” ND and the Poor Brother” truly saddens me. It brings the current state of ND hoops into a stark reality. It wasn’t too long ago that I thought of ND as having a recruiting edge. Either those days are gone, or I was just way off the mark in the first place. The again, what does it matter how well you recruit. Ask Bill Carmody, who does well with what he gets. Or ask Charlie Weis, who doesn’t do well with top recruiting classes. Out with Brey, in with Carmody. Out with Weis, in with Fitzgerald. I just heard from a friend today that Loyola of Chicago cleaned out their entire men’s and women’s basketball staffs. Wow! Unfortunately, ND will probably hire them. Wrong Chicago school to go raiding. BTW, Muffet McGraw is only as good as Ruth Riley led her to be. She was mediocre before Ruth and has been mediocre since. ND has cornered the market on mediocrity.
That’s right, Pete. When so many small private schools with just a fraction of ND’s athletic budget consistently outperform our basketball team, then ND is doing something consistently wrong in managing the program. We’re either hiring the wrong people (e.g. coaches), not holding them accountable for poor results (we know that’s been going on), hamstringing the program with an outdated philosophy, and/or all of the above. It’s just incompetence by ND and it’s Athletic Dept.
Look around: Marquette, Butler, Villanova, Xavier, Gonzaga, etc. Why can’t ND hoops at least be their equal?
Would have liked to see Penn State get in. Lacked an y real big wins outside the Big 10. If only they could have beaten Wisconsin at least once and not been eliminated by Iowa I think we’d see them dancing right now. Sad that we’re not going to see what Battle could do on the biggest stage.
Can’t believe how easily Sparty dismantled Louisville today. I’ve hated the Big Ten all year, called it a miserable conference, and they played team basketball and executed better than anyone this tournament. What is it about Tom Izzo – you rarely here his name come up among the great coaches of the country. I guess he doesn’t draw much attention to himself and has quietly run that program for so long. I’m humbled right now and depressed. I wanted an All Big East final four. Why is he so easily overlooked? Unreal and I now bow to Michigan State.
Rey
Look above – sixth comment from the top.
All hail Casey the clairvoyant! Next thing you are going to say is that defense wins championships. Wait a minute – UNC is owning Oklahoma right now and winning with defense. Never mind…
Izzo is a GREAT coach and he definitely showed it today in outscheming Rick Pitino. His kids, not as talented as Pitino’s, played harder and smarter … and he gets a lot of the credit. I agree … he is underrated by many.
I thought Louisville was listless and clueless much of the game today. Every time they had some momentum going, they shot themselves in the foot with a turnover … many of them unforced, all of them careless. Pitino’s clan looked undisciplined … I’m starting to think that nobody does less with more than Ricky P. He should have won more titles at Kentucky … they were stacked during his tenure.
Back to Izzo and MSU … I won’t be surprised if they beat UConn next week. UConn is another wonderfully talented but often careless team. Should be interesting … plays right into Izzo’s hands.
What’s that I hear ? Oh … it’s Pitino finally asking his players to guard MSU’s Suton.
Any truth to the rumor of Calipari to Kentucky????
I don’t know. It’s one thing to say that Izzo out-coached Pitino yesterday, and another to suggest that Pitino gets less out of more. That might be a little drastic.
Pitino coached Kentucky for 8 years. Do you remember the sanctions waged upon the Wildcat program? The names Pelphrey, Woods, and Farmer aren’t exactly synonymous with hoops prodigies. Those guys were scrap metal at best, and Pitino took them to the Elite Eight and only the greatest basketball performance of the last 30 years could turn them away – “Laettner…puts it up…YES!!!!”
That was the first of six consecutive appearances in the NCAA tournament. Three culminated in the Final Four with one championship. Then Pitino leaves, and Tubby wins with his guys and his system. That’s less with more?
And as for his stacked teams at Kentucky look here: https://basketballreference.com/players/bycollege.htm?sch=University+of+Kentucky
Rodrick Rhodes? Ron Mercer? Nazr Mohammed? Is it safe to suggest that Pitino gave them a chance that they could not take advantage of in the NBA. The only above average player there was Mashburn. He left after two years and his freshman year was at the end of the school’s time in purgatory.
Pitino borders on being a GREAT college coach. Just don’t let him near the NBA. I attended a coaching clinic where Pitino was the main presenter (in his days at Providence, if that doesn’t date me). He was brilliant! My whole coaching philosophy was built around his presentation that day, and I am not easily influenced in such circumstances. My only rap on Pitino is that he has become the Pat Riley of NCAA basketball with those clothes he wears. Riley too was a great coach, but his “stylish” dress turned me off. And I go a long way back with Riley. He played high school ball in the city in which I was born (Schenectady, NY). He led Linton High to one of only 2 defeats that Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul Jabbar) and Power Memorial suffered in Lew’s HS career; Alcindor was a freshman. The other loss came to DeMatha High f Hyattsville, MD. Riley had some clasic matchups with Tim Kolodziej and Amsterdam (NY)’s (I grew up there when my family moved 15 miles up the road) Fab 5, with the Fab 5 usually prevailing. Kolodziej went to Duke, Riley to Kentucky. Needless to say, HS was the last time Timmy K bested Riley. And to go further on a tangent, in one of Riley’s autobiographical ventures ( I think it was The Winner Within), he gets to talking about the classic Election day match between Linton and crosstown rival Mont Pleasant. Mont Pleasant is my Mom’s alma mater; all of her family went there. In this autobiog, Riley talks about the heartbreaking loss to Mont Pleasant his senior year when Joe Massaroni (my cousin) goes up in the end zone to make an impossible catch. Just felt in the storytelling mood. And now back t he original topic. Pitino has been very successful at the college level, from Providence on – wasn’t he Billy Donovan’s coach? Didn’t he take them to the final four? At Ky he did a great job with what he could get, and sanctions did limit that. At Lou u vul, he has just begun to scratch the surface. He may never accomplish what John Wooden and Adolph Rupp did, but we will talk about him in the same breath as Krzyzewski and Izzo and Smith and Williams and Boeheim (and of course Brey).
OK … I was just bitter cuz I picked L’ville to go all the way in my pool. You’re right … Rick is pretty darned good. But why play so much zone vs MSU?
1 thing I learned about Pitino in the clinic is that he stubbornly sticks to his methods as the right way. If he decides his game plan is zone and he practices zone, then he is going to play zone. One of his things was (and I always believed this) is that players have to learn to overcome bad coaching. He is a very good coach who has some bad days. His kids worked hard to overcome his coaching decision, but came up short. Again, from the clinic, I know that he felt that changing from the game plan was going to weaken him in some other way. Right or wrong, he was true to the style he developed at Providence (or before that under Boeheim). Still, they certainly where a disappointment, weren’t they?