With the Big Ten basketball season closing the final stretch, eight teams are fighting for their lives to clinch that ever important berth into the NCAA Tournament. With Michigan State, Purude, Minnesota and Illinois locks, there are four teams that have a lot of work to do to make sure they remain in the hunt. Here are my Big Ten bubble teams.
Michigan Wolverines (16-10, 6-7)
RPI: 53
Strength of Schedule: 15
vs. AP Top 25: 2-4
Key Wins: UCLA (neutral), Duke, Illinois
Key Losses: @ Maryland
Despite a tough stretch lately, Michigan is still in decent shape for the tournament picture. The key component that favors the Wolverines is their non-conference schedule. Michigan earned two wins against top ten teams early in the season over Duke and UCLA. Additionally, the Wolverines lost to Duke in another matchup, but one win against Duke says enough. Losses to solid UConn and Maryland can be considered “good losses.” If John Beilein can get his team with a conference record over .500, look for Michigan to make a tournament splash.
Prediction: Out. Michigan will need to play its best basketball of the season during the final stretch.
Ohio State Buckeyes (17-6, 7-5)
RPI: 30
Strength of Schedule: 28
vs. AP Top 25: 5-4
Key Wins: Notre Dame, Butler, @ Michigan, Michigan, Purdue, Minnesota
Key Losses: @ Wisconsin, West Virginia
Ohio State could be a lock, but just to be safe, let’s make them a bubble team. As long as the Buckeyes don’t collapse, look for Thad Matta and the boys to land a five seed in the big dance. With a number of key wins and a 5-4 record vs. AP Top 25, Ohio State has all the credentials of a tournament team.
Prediction: In
Penn State Nittany Lions (18-8, 7-6)
RPI: 71
Strength of Schedule: 91
vs. AP Top 25: 2-3
Key Wins: Purdue, @ Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota
Key Losses: Temple, Rhode Island (Neutral), Wisconsin
Penn State is an interesting team this year, because nobody really has seen the talent this team has. The sole blame for that one is the fact that the non-conference opponents that Penn State scheduled are atrocious. The Lions non-conference schedule ranks 329 out of 341 teams in Division I. However, Penn State still could earn respect. With a key game at Illinois on Wednesday, and games remaining @ Ohio State and at home against the Illini, Penn State could make a statement. The Lions will probably need 24 wins to sneak in.
Prediction: No. Should have scheduled better non-conference opponents.
Wisconsin Badgers (16-9, 7-6)
RPI: 31
Strength of Schedule: 4
vs. AP Top 25: 3-7
Key Wins: @ Michigan, Penn State (twice), Ohio State
Key Losses: @ Northwestern, @ Marquette
Wisconsin has been a streaky team. Beating teams they are competing with like Penn State (twice) and Michigan definitely help its cause. A tough strength of schedule is their biggest benefit.
Prediction: In…skin of their teeth.
Power Rankings
1.) Michigan State
2.) Purdue
3.) Illinois
4.) Minnesota
5.) Ohio State
6.) Wisconsin
7.) Penn State
8.) Michigan
9.) Northwestern
10.) Iowa
11.) Indiana
Gotta respect Robbie Hummel. If his back pain is even close to what is being described, it is remarkable that he can compete at the level he did last night.
Count me among those who question the Big 10 getting more than 4 in the Dance. Of course now that I have said that, I am sure they will have at least one representative in the final four. 🙂 The sense of entitlement that the Major conferences have is bothersome. Proponents of these power conferences dismiss out-of-conference upsets by rationalizing that the smaller schools get up for these games more than the big schools. When I look at the SEC this year, I don’t see how they get more than 2 schools in, but some places are forecasting they’ll get 4. Then I hear of the Big 10 getting 5. Wow! Don’t get me wrong the Big 10 plays a great brand of basketball that converts to success in March, but 5 teams in the dance?
Great post Greg!
I thought I remember seeing the conference RPI ratings flash across the ESPN screen last night. I think it was 1) ACC, 2) Big 10, 3) Big East …
So maybe the Big 10 gets AT LEAST 5 teams into the BD.
I think Wisconsin is a slam dunk as of today. Of course, they could go on a losing streak and make me look foolish, but I expect them to finish decently.
I saw those too – that’s what prompted my comment. The Big 10 #2 and the Big East #3?!? Whoa! What stats are they feeding in to get that output?
SEC #6 and A10 #8 ?!?
Let’s look at a sample: Xavier is 2-0 vs. the SEC they have won @LSU and @Auburn.
Temple – 1-0 they beat Tenn. By the way Temple also knocked off Penn St.
Rhode Island is 11-4 out of conference. They also beat Penn St. and VCU. Lost @ Providence by 1 and lost @ Ok St. by 2.
Aside from beating Marquette, Dayton also beat Auburn.
Holy Dr. Naismith!!! What happened in Champaign last night?!?!? Was the shot clock not working?!?!? Did they jump center after every basket?!?!? Penn State knocks of the Illini 38-31 … beam me back to the ’50’s, Scottie.
Penn St. shot 28.3% from the field – a whopping 3-17 (17.6%)from the behind the arc
Illinois – 30% from the field – 3-16 from the arc.
In comparison – Kansas beat Iowa St. 72-55.
Jayhawks went 28-56 from the field including 8-18 from long range.
Cyclones – 18-56 and 10-26 from long range.
Was it defense in Champaign? Or ineptitude? I hate to say it, but Big 10 teams in the past have been able to force their will upon other conferences come tournament time.
Casey — I’m more inclined to think it was ineptitude on offense. Big 10 teams aren’t exceptionally quick … it’s more muscle close to the lane. But when you force teams to win it from the outside … and they can’t shoot straight, this is what you get. (Geez … this is the type of thing that happens to ND every other game).
Regardless … Beware Sparty, Purdue Pete, and the Badger come Big Dance time!
Purdue’s success is tenuous. Robbie Hummel is a slipped disc from being on the shelf for the season. Matt Painter has struggled at times in his second year at the helm. I’m sure the players thought he was great last year. Who wouldn’t after having to deal with the cantankerous Gene Keady. But the honeymoon is over. Painter has to prove he can do it after the initial glow of the first kiss has worn off. 🙂