When Casey approached me about doing Tuesdays with Smitty, I jumped at the idea.. Great, my own weekly pseudo-column. Then I said, “Great, what the hell am I going to write about this week? “. Well out of the Land of the Rising Sun arose my column. Almost as ritualistic as Groundhog Day, the end of the winter’s blues comes with the famous words, “Play Ball”. And with the Opening Day – today, I thought it was time to start with what I hope to be my annual review and predictions for the upcoming Major League Baseball season. This week the American League is up:
The Cream of the Crop category: Boston, New York, Detroit, Cleveland, Anaheim and Seattle.
Boston: The Defending Champs – hang on let me soak in those words…..Ahhh. it feels good. Well, the Red Sox bring back all but 3 of its players from last year. It is a far cry from the year after 2004 when upwards of 8 were gone come the 2005 season. Their pitching staff is solid – but suspect. Can Schilling and Wakefield hold up? Better yet, is Schilling even going to pitch this year? Are Bucholtz and Lester going to show the same stuff over an entire year as they did in the 2nd half last year? If spring training says anything Lester is ready to step up. Beckett’s back should be ready come early April.. The cat named after him that is curled up next to me predicts 20 wins for the Texas Flame Thrower for this summer. Manny looks ready for a MVP season, and the rest of the offense will produce. Here is one person predicting a 25 HR/100 RBI for Drew in his 2nd season at Fenway. Solid all the way, but will the pitching hold up?
New York: New blood at the ownership level and new blood in Joe Girardi has New York fans hopeful for the upcoming season. MVP A-Rod should put up big numbers, and Jeter, Cano and Abreu should produce. But how about the rest of the lineup? Posada has been incredible, but he is getting up there in age. Can he keep it up? Can Matsui and Damon stay healthy? A youth movement in the starting rotation has raised hopes. Joba has become a household name, but is he a starter or the future closer? Are Kennedy and Hughes ready? How is Pettite going to react to an off-season of misremembering? Can Mussina be productive? A lot of questions, but I don’t question Girardi as manager. A lot of people are predicting this is the year the Yankees miss the playoffs. I can never count them out.
Cleveland: Potent offense with guys like Sizemore, Hafner, V. Martinez and co. will have no problems keeping the Indians in every game this year. But if history has taught us anything, pitching wins games. Returning Cy Young winner C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona create a fearsome duo. Sabathia and Carmona and pray for rain? Can Byrd, Lee and Westbrook give the Indians a solid 3, 4 and 5 in their rotation. The bullpen is solid, but Borowski is the question mark. As the closer, he was erratic last year and is the key to keeping their bullpen in order this summer. Will the scars of blowing a 3-1 lead to the Sox in the ALCS carry over? Will 200+ innings pitched the last couple of years, catch up with Sabathia?
Detroit: I think the Cabrera/Willis trade says it all. Offense is stacked with Maggs, Sheff and Curtis Granderson. Heck, when Pudge is your 8th place hitter, you know the lineup is stacked. The quiet pick up of the year may have been Edgar Renteria. How will he do in his second tour in the American League? Verlander is a stud. How are Willis, Bonderman and the Gambler going do this summer? Bonderman is coming off surgery. Willis has been overworked the past few years in Florida and it started to show last year. The Gambler is 400 years old and coming off surgery as well. Can they hold up? Besides the Guitar Hero king, and Todd, “I am older then the Gambler” Jones, who is in their bullpen? Willis and Cabrera were signed to HUGE contracts? Is this a two year run and then a firesale in Detroit? Have the Marlins moved to Detroit? Something scares me about these big contracts and I hope the Tigers aren’t chasing a title in the wrong way.
Anaheim: I am not completely sold on them, but every year Mike Sciosca always seems to have them in a position to win. Is Tori Hunter suitable protection for Vlad? Is Gary Matthews going to earn his big contract? The Red Sox experienced in first hand in 2005, but can the Angels replace the intangibles of Orlando Cabrera? Is John Lackey’s arm problems going to go away? Escobar, Garland, and Weaver are tough. K-Rod is a flame thrower, although the ball that Manny hit last year in the ALDS is still traveling. Alot of questions, but like I said; Scioscia is one of the best and he always seems to have them in the right position to win.
Seattle: My favorite in the West. A starting pitching staff of King Felix, Bedard, Batista and Washburn is tough.. Putz is a solid closer, although that really isn’t an intimidating name for a closer. I recommend he changes his name to something more intimidating. Ichiro and Beltre lead an offense that should score enough to keep the Mariners in every game. But is the offense enough? Is King Felix ready to step up? Bedard has not looked good this spring. Is he ready for a serious run at the division?
The Don’t Be Surprised if They Are In It Come September category: Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. I like some of the additions both teams made. But can Rolen who is tough, hold up for a season? Halladay, Burnett and Marcum are tough. McGowan is lost for the season. Can BJ Ryan come back? Can Vernon Wells live up to the big contract? Alex Rios is a stud, but he needs help. The Blue Jays seem to play well after they fall out of the race. Can they stay in it this year?
The White Sox are an enigma for me. I am not sure what to expect from them. Picking up Orlando Cabrera brings a solid player that can do all the little things and turn a team into a contender. Thome continues to hit bombs, but will his back hold up? Is Dye going to come back into his own? Konerko is steady, same with Swisher. Buerhle, Contreras and Vazquez are good, but can they compete with the likes of Detroit and Cleveland? Is this Ozzie’s last stand?
The Not Quite There Category: Minnesota and Kansas City. Minnesota will be competitive and have Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. But how will the loss of Hunter and Santana affect them? They traded Garza and Santana. Do they regret dealing Garza?
I know you are looking at me with two head about the Royals. But they are young and they are talented. Alex Gordon, Mark Teahan, Billy Butler and David DeJesus are talented players. Brian Bannister and Gil Meche give them something to work with in pitching. Still have a ways to go though.
The Thanks for Spending the Luxury Tax Dollars Category: Tampa Rays, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Oakland A’s. Hard to see the A’s in this category, but is clear that Billy Beane cleaned house and is starting over. Baltimore just provides another place for the Red Sox to have home games. Texas is a ways away. The Rays have the potential to be exciting, but injuries to Kazmir could lead to a very, very long season.
Prediction: Seattle, Detroit and Boston win their divisions
Wildcard: Yankees.. Sorry Indians fans
ALCS: Detroit over Yankees, Boston over Seattle.
ALCS: Boston over Detriot in an epic 7 game series
World Series: ?? Stay tuned for next week.
Disagree with me? Let’s hear what you have to say..
The pizza business must be going well for Little Caesar’s – Illitch has definitely opened the wallet.
As long as Sheffield is in the lineup, I am suspicious. He was in the middle of an above average batting order in Atlanta and couldn’t get the Braves to the Series. In the Bronx…well do I need to say anything? Would any of those guys vouch for Sheffield?
Then again Jim Leyland has the ability to keep everything calm in the clubhouse.
Casey
pizza pizza
In the Tigers lineup Sheffield will go yard at least 35 times and drive in 110.
The sun is shining in Rochester. I almost feel like talking baseball.
The Twins could be playing possum. Yeah they gave up Santana, but they didn’t have much of a choice. Giving up Garza was to bring in Delmon Young to make up for the loss of Hunter. I’m not saying Young will take Hunter’s spot, but he did drive in 90 last year for the Rays. In a lineup with Mauer and Morneau he will do at least that. The Twins could give up that pitching because they have Slowey, Bonser, Liriano, and now Livan Hernandez.. Slowey and Bonser won’t set anything on fire, but they can get the job done. It will be interesting to see how Liriano recovers from surgery. Livan pitching in the A.L.? That could be whiplash waiting to happen, or he could win 12-15. Have I become a Twins’ fan? I don’t think so – just natural to pay attention to kids coming up through the system and stopping at Rochester.
With Scioscia at the helm, the Angels are always dangerous.
Cabrera in Chicago – too little too late? Carbrera is glue, but are the Pale Hose beyond repair?
Sox are 1 and 1, and it isn’t even April.
Bravo to Smitty for the post. Keep ’em coming.
Casey
Nice Job Smitty. Hate to say this but there is something about this Yankee team that I kind of like. Lots of homegrown talent, maybe finally some chemistry – see Casey’s comment on Sheff. And I like Girardi at the helm. No knock on Joe Torre but maybe it was time for a change.
JD –
“…something about this Yankee team that I kind of like.”
WHAT?!?! Next thing we know you’ll be wearing a Tar Heel hat.
🙂
Casey
In case anyone was wondering – Livan Hernandez is listed as being 33 years old. Does that sound a little young?
Smitty —
Hard to believe that Seattle will beat the LAA for the division title out west, BUT I hope you’re right. (The Mariners are Alaska’s “home team”). Just don’t think they have quite enough offense and pitching. Could they surprise me … yes … they had a pretty good year in ’07 before a huge Sept collapse.
Pretty much agree with your prediction of Bosox vs Tigers for the pennant. But I think I might give the edge to DET to go to the WS. Boy, are they gonna pound the ball … they might average 8-9 runs a game!!!
Indeed, the Chisox are an enigma. They will need unexpectedly good years from some younger guys and also for Jose Contreras to get his nasty stuff back. Good news is that Joe Crede is back at 3rd base … he’s clutch at bat and in the field. Hope his back is fully recovered. Team should score a ton of runs … boils down to the pitching staff at least slightly resembling the one from ’05. Still, I think their only hope is the wildcard as Tigers will be too strong.
I think Chicago’s post-season hopes really rest with the Cubbies this year. As they say in Chitown … anyone can have a bad century … but it is the 100th anniversary of the Cubs last WS title in 1908. I’m feelin’ it !!!! Wait … where’s Bartman?!?!?
Wally
Casey,
Is that Livan’s age in dog years??
JD….. How do I show that I am just shaking my head???
Wally, I agree with the Mariners on offense, which is why I think it is going to be just enough. But I think King Felix is ready and Bedard was a steal for the Mariners. Throw in Washburn, Batista and Carlos Silva. That is a pretty good rotation. Capable of giving 6 or 7 quality innings every night.
With Lackey hurting and I don’t Hunter was the right pick up for the Angels – I think they are vulnerable this year. Is it just me or do the Angels have 5 center fielders on their roster?
As for the Tigers.. I agree with the lineup.. But we saw this a couple of years ago with the Yankees lineup. In the end, pitching wins in the post season. I just don’t think the Tigers pitching stacks up against the Red Sox. And if the Sox need to, they have the players in their farm system to get another arm.
Next week, I will be doing the National League… JD, I try to get it on the site a little bit earlier on Tuesday..
What weaknesses do the Tigers have? Willis will have a Beckett-like rebirth. He’s been pitching in MLB purgatory; his tenure with Detroit will give him a renewed passion for the game. The Red Sox pitching is questionable. Schilling and Wakefield will be the reason the golf cart ride from the bullpen will make its return this season. At least one of the young guns will have to breakthrough on a 162-game format this year. And isn’t Dice-K just benefitting from a power offense? Can he be reliable in a low scoring game?
ouch
Angels are also minus Escobar.
Reynell-
If you were a wrestler, would we call you the truth – cause you sure do want ta make it hurt.
Casey
Reynell,
Are you still bitter that Manny won the Series with the Sox? Ooops, I mean 2 Series.
Casey
I completely agree about the Tigers lineup. Tough from the top of the lineup to the bottom. But we have seen this a couple of years now with the Yankees and in the end – pitching wins championships.
Tigers pitching staff is suspect – worse then the Red Sox. Verlander is a stud.. But their pitching stops there. Remember – Beckett had a tough first year here in American League and that was with overpowering stuff.. Willis has been in purgatory but he has been paying his pennance by throwing alot of inning and alot of pitches. I honestly see him as a 5 inning pitcher. Teams are going to make him work and run his pitch count up.
Bonderman is coming off elbow surgery. Kenny Rogers is coming off surgery and who knows when he is going to attack the next camera man. That leaves Nate Roberston as the 5th starter? Way too many question marks.
As for their bullpen? Name me somebody other then Joel “Slash” Zumaya and Todd Jones? Their bullpen is suspect and if those starters can’t go 6 or 7, that offense is going to be dependent on scoring alot of run every night. It didn’t work for the Yankees and it won’t work for the Tigers. It only gets you so far.
Also – Renteria didn’t fair well in his first tour throught the AL. I believe in Boston, he was commonly known as Error Renteria. History has shown he has not been comfortable in places that want to win and Detroit wants to win. Cabrera is going to be playing some 3B and 1B. He has not shown that he is quality fielder. The infield could have more holes in it then Roger Clemen’s congressional testimony.
As for the Red Sox. Yes, Schil is a question mark. So is Wakefield. But at tthis stage, I would take Wakefield over Rogers any day. Beckett is going to win 17-18 games. I think Dice-K is going to be fine this year. The spotlight is down, and he has a full season under his belt. I don’t really count the first game in Japan as that was alot of pressure and he admitted to being over excited for the game. Lester and Bucholtz are going to win.
That being said, Red Sox bullpen of Okie, Timlin, Delcarmmen and company are going to hold up just fine.
That being said, who has the abillity to go make a trade at mid-season ? The Red Sox have the farm system to make a trade. The Tigers used all of their bargaining chips to get Cabrera and Willis.
There is no questioning that Willis will be fired up playing in Detroit. But if your arm is shot, your arm is shot. There was a lot of questions about his arm last year.
I wanna see that he can navigate his way through AL hitting. He doesn’t have the pitcher hiting 3 times a game for some cupcake outs.
A lot of discussion about Detroit that I’d like to comment on…
First of all, Dontrelle Willis is no Josh Beckett, so anyone looking for that type of resurrection is going to be majorly disappointed. That said, if he can keep his ERA in the low 4’s in the AL, that will be enough to be the #4 starter the Tigers need.
Those Yankees teams who were falling short despite of their prodigious offense never had an ace like Justin Verlander. Since this blog is pretty much Red Sox Nation of Western New York, I don’t think I need to remind you of how important one great pitcher putting it all together in the postseason can be.
And Smitty, what history is telling you that Edgar Renteria isn’t comfortable playing for teams that want to win? One rough season in Boston? Hell, the guy played for two different teams that went to the World Series. Do a little research and let me know how the first one ended.
One more thing…I don’t think you can place too much stock in a team’s lack of bullpen depth before the season even starts. If they have no closer, that’s one thing, and if you want to say you have no faith in Todd Jones, I’m not going to argue too vehemently in his defense. But, how many teams go into a season with a proven setup man like Hideki Okajima? In fact, who did the Sox think was going to be their bridge to Jonathan Papelbon was going to be last year? Joel Pineiro? J.C. Romero?
The only team who’s been willing to pay a setup man a closer’s salary is the Yankees, and look where that’s gotten them. In fact, they ended last season with one of the best setup men in the league, and he was a guy who they didn’t have major league plans for when the season started. This despite the existence of Kyle Farnsworth and his $6 million salary.
Relief pitchers are a slippery slope. While some of them, including the best closers, are players who are best suited for that type of role, most of them are relievers because they’re not good enough to be starters. Every year, almost every team is trying to figure out what’s going to work leading up to the closer, and sometimes an almost 30-year old Mets castoff with a career ERA close to 5.00 becomes the best setup man in the NL.
That’s Heath Bell, by the way.
Chas,
I agree with you on a lot of things. I think alot of teams go into each season with a group of guys who are going to to be their bullpen and figure it out from there. Picking a reliever is a lot of like a pot luck dinner. Throw some cast offs into the role and see how they do. Did the Yankees know that Rivera was going to be the set-up man for Wetteland? I do think the Sox had an idea of Okajima as being a lefty specialist. Certainly he turned out to be more then just a lefty specialist.
That being said, I think that is why in some regards, the Sox are early favorites going into the season. They know that in front of Papelbon – they have Okajima, Delcarmen, and Timlin to bridge the gap between the starters and Papelbon.
Can things go haywire? Absolutely. Can guys struggle or get hurt? Absolutely. My point was that the Tigers are vulnerable in some areas and have question marks entering the season – like the Red Sox, like the Yankees and like a couple of the other favorites. The Sox are certainly vulnerable in the starting pitching role or they certainly wouldn’t have gotten into the Santana sweepstakes or sign Bartolo Colon.. In some ways, the Bartolo Colon signing reminds me of when they picked up Brett Saberhagen.
I don’t question Edgar Renteria’s career. And yes, he played on teams that won. I question his ability to play in big-time cities. Florida and St. Louis are laid back cities when it comes to their sports. Recent articles list the Miami area is considered one of the worst areas to own a sports franchise. St. Louis LOVES its Cardinals, but are they rabid for a winner?Not really. Do I consider Detroit as rabid as Boston or New York? Not quite, but I think they are a notch above St. Louis and Florida. The Tigers have been expected to win for a couple of years now and with the pickups in the offseason – the expectations are even higher.
As for history – I really can go by the one year he had in the American League. In the National League he has been a perennial All-Star and Gold Glover. In Boston he was far from that where he had his highest error total in his career (30). He also had one of the lowest batting averages in his career (.276) in Boston and had his 2nd highest strikeout totals in that year (100). Now, I am inclined to give any player going from NL to AL and vice versa a mulligan on the first year and I expected him to do better in his second year. But it didn’t happen. He asked to be traded – he asked out of Boston after one year on a 4 year contract. Boston traded him for 50 cents on the dollar and are stilling paying for some of his contract.
Do I blame the Red Sox on that ? Yes. They could have had Cabrera and they went for the Renteria. And this was after LaRussa his own manager questioned whether he could play in Boston. Is Boston a tough place to play? Absolutely. But he shares in the blame, along with the Red Sox for a bad marriage. That being said, how is he going to do in the AL this year? I think that is a fair assessment based on the one year he was in the American League. He is certainly a good player, but how is he going to do?
If his defense doesn’t hold up, you are looking at a left side of the diamond of him and Cabrera. Cabrera is not known for his defense and his pickup has forced Brandon Inge to the bench. Inge is a mediocre bat, but a gold glove potential 3rd baseman. Renteria moves Carlos Guillen a pretty decent SS to 1st base. If there are errors on the left side of that infield, it leads to more pitches and more batters a pitcher has to face.
The Red Sox team defense was key last year. Lowell could have won the Gold Glove last year and Lugo is a decent SS.
Add Pedrioa and Youkilis to the mix and their infield defense is tops.
Every team goes into the season with 2 things. Question marks and hope. I think the Tigers are a very good team and I really like Jim Leyland as a manager. Right now though, I think the Red Sox are slight favorites over them – right now. Could that change in a month – absolutely and I will be the first to admit that.
Speaking of things going haywire – has Zumaya been playing a little too much Guitar Hero again?
Anyone seen Muels lately?
Smitty, you might be selling the baseball intensity of St. Louis a bit short, but I don’t know enough to say. What I do know is that you’re basing your opinion of Renteria on too small a body of evidence…one year that went south on him, and the reaction to which probably caused him to dislike Boston. Regardless, adding Renteria to the mix in Detroit has to be considered a positive. And Carlos Guillen is a below average defensive shortstop. The Tigers played him there every chance they got last year, in favor of Neifi Perez and Ramon Santiago at short. His move to 1B was inevitable, regardless of the acquisition of Renteria.
By the way, Renteria just struck out in his first AB in a Tigers uniform, so it looks like you’re right about him. 😉
I may be debating you on a few points here, but I’m certainly not saying I think you’re crazy for not picking Detroit to win the AL. They will, but you’re not crazy for saying they won’t.