Six Divisions in Six Weeks: Southwest (Part One)

5. New Orleans Hornets (’11-’12 record: 21-45)

Best Player: 

Number one overall pick Anthony Davis is obviously the New Orleans player who will have the most attention on them in ’12-’13, but let us not forget which player the Hornets were willing to hand a max contract this off-season.

Eric Gordon, only 23-years-old, has averaged 18.2 points per game during his four NBA seasons with shooting splits of .452/.370/.807. While Davis is learning how to match up against the NBA’s best forwards night in and night out, the Hornets are going to rely on Gordon to score as close to his career-high of 22.3 ppg as possible, and they are hoping obviously that he exceeds it. With little to no team expectations this season, all the Hornets can wish for this campaign is that their franchise players, Gordon and Davis, stay healthy and fit well together on the court.

Starting Lineup: 

Rounding out the starting lineup will be third-year players point guard Greivis Vasquez and small forward Al-Faroug Aminu and newcomer Ryan Anderson, last season’s league wide most improved player.

Vasquez was the team’s most pleasant surprise last season, thriving in an expanded starter role late in the season, averaging 11.4 ppg and 7.3 apg in 33.0 minutes per game in April. Aminu was one of the many pieces acquired during the Chris Paul trade and while his talent is evident, the team will need more from him in ’12-’13. Much like Vasquez, Aminu responded well to increased playing time, averaging 8.7 ppg and 6.3 rpg in 30.8 minutes per game in April.

24-year-old Anderson is as interesting an acquisition as any from this off-season. Over his four seasons, he has improved in every major stat category, particularly in scoring (7.4 to 16.1 ppg), rebounding (4.7 to 7.7 rpg) and shooting (.393/.365/.845 to .439/.393/.877). If Anderson continues improving at this rate, once in his expanded role and in an offense this desperate for points, he might blossom into a legitimate 20-and-10 performer.

If the Hornets come away with a pair of 20 point per game scorers, an otherworldly defensive talent and component role pieces like Vasquez and Aminu to build around, the future might not be to far away for the Hornet franchise.

Bench: 

The Hornets might have a better starting lineup than most “bad teams” in ’12-’13, particularly if they can stay healthy. With that said, the team does not have a much of anything on their bench, a problem area for a young team in a tough conference.

Beyond lottery pick Austin Rivers, there is a clear lack of talent on the bench. Xavier Henry is a lottery pick that simply has not translated to the NBA very well (and should have stayed at Kansas for an extra year or two), but will be called upon by the Hornets to play a lot of minutes on the wing this season. Big man Robin Lopez averaged 5.8 ppg and 3.3 rpg in his four seasons in Phoenix, and he will end up netting a lot of time as both Davis’ backup and also with Davis when the team wants to play Davis at power forward.

Lopez and veteran Hakim Warrick will receive a lot of the bench minutes down low, while Austin Rivers will probably play starters minutes coming off the bench at guard. It would be hard to imagine many other players getting significant minutes after that, barring injury.

Bottom Line:

The Hornets will be an improved offensive team from a year ago, when they managed less than 90 points per game. But even if they can net over 20 points per game from Gordon and Anderson, a dozen points per contest from Davis and Rivers and respectable scoring margins from Vasquez, Aminu and their bench, what is inevitable is a season full of defensive woes.

Even with the most impressive shot-blocking specimen to enter the league since Dwight Howard now on roster, the inexperience and lack of size will overtake the team’s athleticism and result in a miserable defensive season. Teams that can body Davis will score 110 points on the Hornets and everyone else will average 100 points. The Bobcats will even flirt with 100 points against New Orleans next year.

So it will come down to how many points can the Hornets score in return. How many shoot-outs will New Orleans be able to steal in ’12-’13? We will find out, but it does not seem like too many are going to go their way.

Pre-season expectations and grade:

D

They will earn another top 5 lottery pick due to defensive short comings, but they just might be tolerable offensively, and everyone will want to watch Anthony Davis.

4. Houston (’11-’12 record: 34-32)

Best Player: 

In a lot of ways the only established veteran on the team, Kevin Martin is a pure scorer. He has exceeded 20.0 points per game in five of the last six seasons, the exception being last season when injuries forced him to miss 26 games. Martin will certainly need to stay healthy and approach his career-high of 24.6 ppg if the Rockets wish to compete in the West this season.

Starting Lineup: 

The Rockets, much like the Mavericks, were hoping to make a run at Deron Williams and Dwight Howard. Part of the Rockets strategy was to get very young and inexpensive so they could eat as much of Howard’s salary as possible while providing the Magic with top young talent.

While Howard is looking at a potential title run in Los Angeles and Deron Williams is arguably the biggest star in the New York City market, Houston is one of the youngest, most inexperienced teams in the league and figures to be completely unequipped to handle the high-octane opposition in their division and conference.

Beside Martin in the starting lineup are returnees Chandler Parsons and Patrick Patterson and free agent acquisitions Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik. The average age of the starting lineup is 25-years-old.

Parsons is coming off an impressive rookie season, where he combined 9.5 ppg and 4.8 rpg with impressive shooting from the field (.452) and three-point land (.337). Parsons is a natural NBA forward and will probably be the team’s best defensive player for years to come. Patterson has played the last two seasons with the Rockets but has only started seven games, primarily backing up Luis Scola, who is now in Phoenix. Patterson has career averages of 7.1 ppg and 4.2 rpg in just 20.3 minutes, all stats that figure to increase in ’12-’13.

Lin was obviously one of the biggest basketball stories of the year last season for a magnitude of reasons, not all basketball related, but it should not be overlooked that Lin is a more than competent NBA player. He averaged 14.6 points per game on .446/.320/.798 shooting splits last season, while dishing out 6.2 assists per contest. Not that many guards can say that, and it is more than possible that Lin expands on those numbers after a full off-season working out with a team much more capable of playing to his style. It was very unlikely that the Knicks would feature Lin’s style of play once Amare and Carmelo were back on the court and healthy. Lin will be a good starting point guard for this young Rockets team, as it is imaginable he will be able to drive-and-dish about as frequently as he wants to.

Asik is suddenly a starter after backing up Joakim Noah the last two seasons in Chicago. Asik possesses a great frame (7-0, 255 pounds) with really good rebounding instincts and should be an above-average starting center.

The youth and inexperience of this starting lineup will be a huge obstacle, particularly in a division with such veteran teams. The Rockets will have a lot of growing pains.

Bench: 

With the exception of wing player and three-point specialist Carlos Delfino who was added during the off-season, the entire bench for Houston is made up of young players with little to no NBA experience.

In the front court, rookie Donatas Motiejunas will back up Asik, second-year players Marcus Morris and JaJuan Johnson and rookie Royce White will be splitting time backing up Patterson. At small forward, Parsons is backed up by rookie Terrence Jones and the seemingly elderly Gary Forbes, who is a 27-year-old in his third season.

Forbes has scored 645 career points, averaging 5.8 ppg for his career. Motiejunas, Morris, Johnson, White and Jones combine for 114 career points. To put this in perspective, LeBron James scored 697 points in 23 playoff games this past post-season, and 143 points against the Thunder alone.

The Rockets will use Delfino and possibly veteran guards Toney Douglas and Shaun Livingston to try and help the young players stay afloat early in the season, but rookie Jeremy Lamb will probably see the most minutes backing up Lin and Martin because of his big play potential. Instead of shying away from the team’s youth, head coach Kevin McHale should feature it and teach the young players to use their athleticism as a weapon.

Bottom Line:

The Rockets will not be in contention this season, and they might spend most of the season in basement of the Western Conference. With that said, this will be a fun team to watch for reasons that do not involve wins and losses. This team is practically all under 25-years-old, and if the Rockets can figure out by seasons end who can really play and who cannot, they might be able to walk away with an impressive, talented young nucleus to build around.

Pre-season expectations and grade:

D+

An unbelievably young team that will get bullied out West, the Rockets will finish with about 25 wins, and that’s if Lin and Martin stay healthy.

Best Player: 

Much like the Dude from The Big Lebowski, Dirk Nowitzki abides. For a dozen consecutive seasons, the Mavericks have played winning basketball, thanks in large part to the stellar play of their future hall-of-fame forward. Nowitzki is still very much elite, scoring 21.6 ppg last season with shooting splits of .457/.368/.896. Look for Dirk’s numbers to finish around there once again.

Starting Lineup: 

After failing to land Dwight Howard or Deron Williams, Cuban wisely changed his whole approach to the free agent market, and built a roster of experienced, affordable veterans who are hungry to win.

Joining Nowitzki and fellow returnee Shawn Marion in the starting lineup is center Chris Kaman, point guard Darren Collison and shooting guard O.J. Mayo. Kaman and Collison join the Mavericks on one-year contracts, while Mayo signed a manageable two-year deal. The Mavericks would be able to part ways very easily with any of the three players if they did not fit with Nowitzki, and so affectively these moves are all low-risk, high-reward.

25-year-old Darren Collison and 24-year-old O.J. Mayo could both be long-term answers at the guard positions, as neither player has ever had an opportunity to play in the same starting lineup with someone of Nowitzki’s abilities. Collison has started 172 games over the last three seasons, but has arguably never been the best guard on his team, behind Chris Paul in New Orleans and then with guards Danny Granger/Paul George/George Hill dominating possession of the basketball in Indiana. Mayo had two really great seasons as a starter in Memphis but saw his numbers go down after he became a bench player.

Kaman will benefit from playing alongside Dirk as well, as he will garnish plenty of offensive opportunities when Dirk spreads out the defense, as well as on the offensive glass.

Bench: 

The Mavericks continued to work their one-year contact strategy with their bench after losing long-time Maverick sixth man Jason Terry. The team added shooting guard Dahntay Jones and power forward Elton Brand to one-year-contracts.

Jones joins Delonte West, Vince Carter and Rodrigue Beaubois as guards off the bench, who all figure to play at guard and on the wing. The Mavericks might not have a star at guard or on the wing, but Mayo/Collison are as good a combination as they have had during the Nowitzki-era, and the depth might be the best it has ever been.

The frontcourt is a different story, as Brand will probably play close to starters minutes off the bench due to a lack of depth. After Nowitzki, Kaman and Brand are Brandon Wright and rookie Bernard James, two young players who will not be able to provide much.

The Mavericks will have to battle all season in order to earn a playoff seed in the deep Western Conference, and staying out of foul trouble will be at the forefront of their issues. If the Mavericks can stay healthy, their bench will be a plus, with veterans at the guard positions and Elton Brand providing veteran play down low.

Bottom Line:

There was certainly a hangover following the championship parade in Dallas, as the Mavericks at times looked really bad last season. After losing players like Tyson Chandler and JJ Barea from the championship roster, the team did not have the same chemistry, and struggled offensively (19th in scoring, 19th in shooting, 15th in assists). The team struggled to make the playoffs, and were bounced in the first round by the Oklahoma City Thunder.

With a lot of available cap space entering the off-season, it was assumed that the team would be the favorites to land franchise altering players, Dwight Howard and Deron Williams. But that did not happen. So they have pieced together a playable roster, surrounding their hall-of-fame power forward with highly motivated veterans on small contracts. The strategy is bullet proof long-term, as the team will once again have plenty of spending money in the summer of 2013, but the move should also provide a viable team in ’12-’13.

Pre-season expectations and grade:

B

This Mavericks team will find a way to make the playoffs and respectfully bow out in the first round, continuing the streak of playoff appearances for Nowitzki.

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Six Divisions in Six Weeks: Southwest (Part One)