by TYLER HATHAWAY
The Buffalo Bills will continue their postseason run when they travel to face the number one overall seed in the AFC, the Denver Broncos. Where as the Bills enter off of a battle against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Broncos will come into Saturday’s game fully rested as the teams will duel for a spot in the AFC Championship game. Here’s the breakdown:
BUFFALO BILLS (13-5/AFC East)
vs.
DENVER BRONCOS (14-3/AFC West)
Saturday, Empower Field at Mile High, 4:25 pm
Storyline #1: Bills are battered
Buffalo had 14 players listed on Thursday’s injury report, and that doesn’t include wide receivers Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis, who each suffered-season ending injuries during the Bills win in Jacksonville.
Safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Maxwell Hairston have already been ruled out for Saturday’s contest. Wide receiver Curtis Samuel, safety Damar Hamlin and defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who are each returning from injured reserve, are questionable. Running back Ty Johnson and linebacker Terrel Bernard are also questionable.
On the contrary, the rested Broncos have only four players listed on the injury report.
Storyline #2: Broncos’ best season in a decade
Despite starting the season 1-2, the Broncos finished the regular season winning 13 of their final 14 games to grab the number one seed in the AFC, the first time Denver has earned a bye since the 2015-16 season, a year that saw the Broncos win the Super Bowl.
This is the second straight season that Denver has made the playoffs since drafting quarterback Bo Nix. Nix, who has thrown for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns this season, leads a Broncos offense that is 10th in yards per game and 14th in points per game.
However, where Denver makes its money is on the defensive side of the ball. The Broncos are second in yards allowed, and third in points allowed. Defensive end Zach Allen was named to the All-Pro first team, and defensive backs Patrick Surtain II (who is the defending Defensive Player of the Year) and Talanoa Hufanga made the All-Pro second team.
The two squads last met in the Wild Card round of the playoffs last year. The Bills were the second seed, and the Broncos the seventh seed. Denver scored an early touchdown, but 31 unanswered points led to a 24-point win for Buffalo.
Storyline #3: Tre White’s renaissance
Despite suffering both an ACL and achilles injury in the past five seasons, and bouncing around with a few other teams, Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White has recently returned to a level of play reminiscent to when he was named a First-team All-Pro in 2019.
Over the past five games, White has a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 90.7, which is first among all defensive backs. He has only allowed three catches, has broken up or intercepted seven passes, and has a passer rating allowed of 33.2.
Arguably the biggest play of that stretch came in the final seconds of last week’s wildcard win against Jacksonville, when White deflected a pass from Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence up in the air, and into the hands of Bills safety Cole Bishop to seal a 27-24 win.
“I’m just trying to be in the moment with my teammates, just trying to enjoy it and not think about too much of the ins and outs of it, but man, it’s huge,” White said of the win after the game. “Huge for myself, huge to the team, huge for Buffalo, and it’s a step in the right direction going towards our ultimate goal, which is to win the Super Bowl.”
Key to the game #1: Reestablish James Cook
It was an unusually quiet game for the NFL’s rushing leader against Jacksonville. James Cook ran the ball 15 times for a season-low* 46 yards, and made two catches for five yards. He was basically a non-factor against Jacksonville’s top-ranked rushing defense.
This week, he will take on the NFL’s second-best rushing defense. But given how elite Denver’s secondary is (seventh in yards allowed, two All-Pros) paired with injuries in the Bills’ receiving core, the weight can’t entirely be on Josh Allen‘s shoulders like it was last week against the Jaguars.
*Excluding Week 18, where he got two carries before being taken out of the game to rest.
Key to the game #2: Finish strong
A good final 15 minutes will be a must if the Bills are to get out of Denver with a win this weekend.
The Broncos have been one of the better fourth-quarter teams in the NFL, with five wins this season while trailing or tied entering the fourth-quarter, including an 18-point fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles and a 33-point explosion in the fourth quarter against the New York Giants.
Luckily for Buffalo, they have also been one of the best fourth-quarter squads. The Bills currently average 9.2 points per game in the fourth quarter and recently just used a 14-point final frame to pick up a win in Jacksonville.
X-Factor: Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman
Due to the injuries to fellow Bills pass-catchers, there are only three currently healthy receivers on Buffalo’s 53-man roster- Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, and second-year wideout Keon Coleman.
It’s been an up-and-down year for Coleman. He opened the season with a career game, finishing Week 1 against Baltimore with eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown. However, outside of that, his best game came in a loss against the Dolphins, where he finished with three catches for 46 yards and a touchdown.
Coleman is going to need to step up and make plays against the Broncos. He had one catch for 36 yards in the Wild Card, and more than that will be needed Saturday given how depleted Buffalo’s receiver room is. He doesn’t need to be the main guy through the air- Shakir or tight end Dalton Kincaid will likely fill that role, but the difference in the game will be whether or not Coleman delivers a few impact plays.
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