by TYLER HATHAWAY
The Buffalo Bills are coming off of a huge Week 13 win against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that was on their heels in the AFC playoff race. However, the Cincinnati Bengals are also entering Week 14 off of a giant win, a potentially season-saving 32-14 win over the Baltimore Ravens. The two teams will face off late this Sunday afternoon trying to stay afloat in a hectic AFC playoff race. Here’s the breakdown:
CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-8/AFC North)
vs.
BUFFALO BILLS (8-4/AFC East)
Sunday, Highmark Stadium, 4:25 pm
Storyline #1: Bills shine on both sides of ball in well-needed win against Pittsburgh
Buffalo got back on track after a tough loss the week prior in a Week 13 win against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills overcame injuries to three starters on offense and two first-half turnovers to outscore the Steelers 23-0 in the second half of a 26-7 win.
“They (his players) knew this would be a challenge, and they rose to the occasion,” Bills head coach Sean McDermott told reporters after the game.
The game was massive in terms of the AFC playoff race. A loss would have bumped the Bills down to ninth in the AFC, behind the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh, without tiebreakers against them. Currently, the Bills sit in seventh in the AFC with five weeks to play, a game ahead of the Texans and at least two games up of everyone else.
Storyline #2: The Bengals have life in a weak AFC North
Despite being four games under .500, Cincinnati still has a serious chance to win the division.
The Baltimore Ravens are currently atop the AFC North with a record of 6-6, with the Steelers sitting at 6-6 as well. The Bengals split their games with Pittsburgh Steelers, and defeated the Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Bengals play three of their final four games of the season at home, with their lone road game coming in Week 16 against the Miami Dolphins. Their three opponents at home are the Ravens, the Arizona Cardinals, and the Cleveland Browns.
With the Ravens and Steelers playing twice in the next five weeks, and the other two Baltimore games being against New England and Green Bay, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that even with a loss to the Bills this week, that the Bengals can swoop in to steal the division.
Storyline #3: Darius Slay drama
The Steelers made the decision to release veteran cornerback Darius Slay earlier in the week, and the Bills decided to claim the former Super Bowl champion on waivers.
The issue? Slay hasn’t made any indication that he will to report to Buffalo, and according to his agent, is even mulling retirement.
“(Darius) Slay is honored that a first-class organization like the Bills claimed him, but he is going to take some time away from football right now and decide in the next few days if he wants to keep playing,” Slay’s agent Drew Rosenhaus told ESPN reporter Adam Schefter.
While potentially not getting Slay after claiming him is one thing, it’s a situation made even worse by the fact that Buffalo waived cornerback Ja’Marcus Ingram as a part of the move to acquire Slay, and Ingram has since been claimed by the Houston Texans.
In addition to the Bills, the Philadelphia Eagles (Slay’s team prior to joining Pittsburgh before this season) were one of the teams who made a claim for the veteran. It is currently unknown whether or not Slay will ever play for the Bills, or that this is the end for the 13-year cornerback who was a six-time Pro Bowler and was a first-team All Pro in 2017 with the Detroit Lions.
Key to the game #1: STOP TURNING THE BALL OVER!
This has been a key to the game in the past (most recently last week), but Buffalo’s turnover problem is seriously getting out of hand.
While Buffalo was able to cruise to a win against the Steelers in Week 13 thanks to a strong second half surge, turnovers once again limited the Bills offensively. Quarterback Josh Allen threw an early interception, and James Cook coughed up a fumble in the first half that extended the streak of multi-turnover games for the Bills to four.
For reference, in Buffalo’s first eight games of the season, the Bills only turned it over six times, with half of those coming in one game (Week 4 vs. New England). In their past four games, they’ve given it up 11 times. In total, Buffalo now ranks seventh in total turnovers across the NFL, and are two behind from third place.
Turnovers have been the single biggest reason the Bills have been losing games. In all four of their losses, Buffalo has turned the ball over at least twice. Buffalo is 7-0 in games where they don’t do that. Want to beat the Bengals? Protect the football!
Key to the game #2: Establish the run, and run a lot
While the Bills defense has definitely struggled to stop the run this season, the Bengals are only one of two teams in the entire NFL to give up more rushing yards per game than Buffalo.
Cincinnati’s rush defense has allowed 153.3 rushing yards per game. Twice have the Bengals given up over 250 rushing yards, allowing 283 yards on the ground against the Chicago Bears, and 254 yards to the New York Jets. Only once all year has Cincinnati allowed less than 100 rushing yards.
The Bills can put themselves in the best position to win on Sunday if they can run anywhere close as they did in their game last week against Pittsburgh. Buffalo ran the ball over 50 times against the Steelers for a season-high 249 rushing yards.
X-Factor: Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich
In all honesty, Babich is in this spot as a placeholder for the entire Bills defense. The Bengals offense is one of the best in the league, and just got back their franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. The Bengals have scored over 30 points five times this season, and scored 32 points in Burrow’s return last week.
One thing about Cincinnati’s game last week which was interesting was how effective their running game was. The Bengals ran for 128 yards against the Ravens, which while isn’t a high number for teams such as Buffalo, was only the third time all season that Cincinnati eclipsed the 125-yard mark. If the Bengals can establish a similar running game against a week Bills run defense, it could be dangerous paired with the Bengals passing attack that ranked first in the NFL last year when Burrow was healthy.
The Bills defense will really need to hold up their end of the bargain this week. Barring complete self-destruction, Buffalo’s offense should have no issue scoring points. However, Cincinnati can score points too, and with a healthy Joe Burrow, can do so arguably just as good as the Bills can. Babich and his staff will need to have a great gameplan heading into Sunday.
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