by TYLER HATHAWAY
The Buffalo Bills are coming off of their best offensive performance of the year, a 44-point outburst against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that helped the Bills bounce back after a bad loss the week prior. The Houston Texans are playing without their starting quarterback but have won five of their past seven games and are fighting to stay alive in the AFC playoff race. The two teams will meet on Thursday Night Football. Here’s the breakdown:
BUFFALO BILLS (7-3/AFC East)
vs.
HOUSTON TEXANS (5-5/AFC South)
Thursday, NRG Stadium, 8:15 pm
Storyline #1: Bills get back on track against Tampa Bay
Last week was a much needed return to form for Buffalo.
Week 10 was a disaster for the Bills, as the team looked completely disjointed on offense and defense and lost 30-13 to a Miami Dolphins team that was 2-7. But Week 11 saw the Bills score a season-high in points in a 44-32 win over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is currently first in the NFC South.
Josh Allen earned his 17th career AFC Offensive Player of the Week award after throwing for three touchdowns and running for three touchdowns for the second time in his career. Prior to the win, the Bills had lost three of their past five games.
“Starting off 4-0 and we’re the best team in the world,” Allen told reporters after the game. “We lose two in a row and now we’re the worst team in the world. We don’t want to ride that, we want to stay consistent.”
Storyline #2: CJ Stroud to miss third consecutive game with injury
Third year Texans quarterback CJ Stroud suffered a concussion during Houston’s game against the Denver Broncos and has missed the Texans’ last two games. Earlier this week, Stroud was ruled out for Thursday’s game against Buffalo.
Veteran Davis Mills will start for Houston for the third straight game. Mills has thrown for 726 yards and three touchdowns with a 60% completion percentage in 2025. The Texans have won each of his starts this season.
The Bills have faced off against Mills once, in 2021. The game was a home game for Buffalo and the team won 40-0.
Storyline #3: Josh Allen’s Thursday dominance
Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been unstoppable in Thursday games in his career. The defending MVP has a perfect record of 8-0, a completion percentage of 73.5%, over 250 total yards per game, and a total TD to interception ratio of 22-6 when playing on Thursday.
This is the second time the Bills will play on Thursday night this season. In Week 3, Buffalo defeated Miami 31-21. In that game, Allen finished with a completion percentage of 78.5%, 213 passing yards, and three passing touchdowns.
On the contrary, Josh Allen is 1-3 in his career against Houston, and winless on the road.
Key to the game #1: Stop the run
It’s honestly to the point where stopping the run can be a key to the game for the Bills for every game for the rest of this season. Just this past week, Buffalo was once again torched by the ground game, letting Tampa Bay running back Sean Tucker finish with 106 rushing yards and three total touchdowns in addition to 51 more rushing yards by the other Bucs running back, Rachaad White. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield even ran for 39 yards against Buffalo, the second most rushing yards he’s ran for in a game this season.
Stopping the run becomes especially prevalent when you’re facing a backup quarterback like Davis Mills. The more pressure you put on Mills to beat you with his arm, the better, especially given how good the Bills passing defense has been. The Bills have the second best passing defense in the NFL this year in terms of yards allowed. On the contrary, Buffalo touts the second worst run defense in the NFL.
The good news for Buffalo? Houston is the tenth-worst team in the league in terms of total rushing offense. The bad news? Tampa Bay is the 11th-worst, and the Buccaneers just ran for 202 yards against the Bills.
Key to the game #2: Get James Cooking
Bills running back James Cook has had two straight quiet games on the ground. The fourth-year player shot out of a cannon after the bye week, running for 216 yards against the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 before running for 114 more in Week 9 against the Kansas City Chiefs. But in Weeks 10 and 11, Cook is averaging 51 rushing yards per game. And while he did make an impact in the receiving game in Week 11 against the Buccaneers, the Bills will need to establish the run against the Houston defense.
The Texans are currently the number one defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed, being third in rush yards allowed and passing yards allowed. When the Bills travelled to Houston in 2024, Josh Allen had one of his worst games in recent memory, finishing completing only nine of 30 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown. The Houston secondary has one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL in Derek Stingley Jr., who has three interceptions and a dozen pass deflections this season, and Jalen Pitre, a safety for the Texans who also has three interceptions and five pass deflections.
If the Bills are to win on Thursday night, the burden cannot completely be on Allen like it was against Tampa Bay. The ground game will need to be a factor.
X-Factor: Bills wide receiver Tyrell Shavers
Buffalo second-year wide receiver Tyrell Shavers had his best game as a pro last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The San Diego State product finished with career highs in both receptions (4) and receiving yards (90) while catching the second touchdown of his career.
Shavers stepped up in the absence of fellow second-year wideout Keon Coleman, who missed the Tampa Bay game for disciplinary reasons and may once again be a scratch for Thursday night. The touchdown pass Shavers caught was only the second touchdown pass Josh Allen has thrown since the start of 2024 that travelled at least 20 air yards, according to ESPN.
It will be interesting to see on Thursday night if Shavers will see more targets after having a breakout game last week, especially if Coleman is once again held out of playing. The Bills will need all the receiver help they can get against a vaunted Texans defense.
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