by TYLER HATHAWAY
The Buffalo Bills will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after each team lost in Week 10. Buffalo lost a real head-scratcher against a struggling Miami Dolphins team, and the Buccaneers fell behind early and could never recover against the New England Patriots. Each team will try and get back on track on Sunday. Here’s the breakdown:
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (6-3/NFC SOUTH)
vs.
BUFFALO BILLS (6-3/AFC EAST)
Sunday, Highmark Stadium, 1:00 pm
Storyline #1: Bills coming off worst game of the season
In plain terms, the Bills were flat out embarrassed this past Sunday.
Buffalo fell on the road to its struggling AFC East rival Miami in stunning fashion, as the Dolphins won 30-13 and were in control for the entire game. The offense turned the ball over three times in Miami territory and the defense allowed Dolphins running back Devon Achane to tally over 200 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns, but threw an interception while the Bills were goal-to-go in the third quarter and fumbled late in the fourth quarter to erase any chance of a comeback.
“I gotta be better. I gotta be better in the protection game and the pass game and the run game, all of it,” said Allen after the game. “Anytime you turn it over three times, two in the red zone — and really you could count that last one driving, kind of going into the red zone — so that’s a recipe for disaster.”
Storyline #2: Tampa Bay experiencing hiccups
The Buccaneers opened the season with a 5-1 record, their lone loss coming against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. But their last three games have been shaky, with a 23-3 win over New Orleans sandwiched between two losses to Detroit and New England.
The offense for the Bucs has taken a step back in recent weeks compared to their 5-1 start. Over the first weeks, Tampa Bay was averaging 27.5 points per game. In their last three games, the Buccaneers were held to nine points against the Lions, one offensive touchdown against New Orleans, and 23 points against the Patriots while failing to convert on over 65% of their third and fourth downs.
The good news for Tampa Bay? Starting running back Bucky Irving returned to practice for the first time in a month and a half on Wednesday, and the Oregon product will try and suit up Sunday for the first time since September to provide a much-needed spark to the Bucs’ offense.
Storyline #3: AFC East slipping away from Buffalo
The New England Patriots winning this past Sunday mixed with the Bills dropping a game they had no business losing bodes poorly for Buffalo’s chances at winning a sixth straight AFC East title.
The Patriots are now 8-2, and face off against the lowly New York Jets at home on Thursday night. Buffalo, at 6-3, sits two games back of the Patriots because of tiebreakers. The Patriots schedule throughout the rest of the back of the season isn’t challenging, either. New England only will face one team that currently has a winning record, Buffalo. If the Bills want to be on their home turf in the playoffs, there’s a ton of work to be done.
Key to the game #1: Win the turnover battle
Turnovers have been a plague for the Bills, and arguably the number one reason for their losses this year. Buffalo turned it over three times against New England, twice against Atlanta, and three times against Miami. In the six games that the Bills have won, they have turned it over once.
On the other hand, the Bills have forced three turnovers in their losses this year, meaning their turnover ratio in those games are eight giveaways to three takeaways. If the Bills want to win on Sunday, they need to protect the football while going after it on defense.
Key to the game #2: Control the flow of the game
Despite stuttering in recent weeks, the Buccaneers offense has been one of the best units in football this year. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been playing at an All-Pro level with a 16-2 touchdown/interception ratio. Running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White have each proven to be great backs, and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka leads all rookies in receiving yards with 677.
Buffalo needs to keep the ball for as long as possible in order to minimize the amount of damage the Tampa Bay offense can deal. The defense needs to get off of the field on third-and-longs, the offense needs to establish the run game, and (as previously mentioned) the team as a whole must limit turnovers. The less Mayfield and his offense has the ball, the better.
X-Factor: Bills head coach Sean McDermott
Now, this may be an odd X-Factor as McDermott obviously can’t suit up and directly impact Sunday’s game. However, the Bills are in a really awkward spot after losing three of their last five games. A bit of a tangent:
Buffalo is currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC and is only a game up on Jacksonville and Kansas City in the standings (7th and 8th), with Baltimore sitting two games behind them at 4-5 with an easy stretch of games ahead. Houston also sits at 4-5, and will host Buffalo next Thursday.
If you take a look at the schedule for the rest of the year, the Bills are genuinely starting to drift towards the position where they could miss the playoffs entirely.
Pittsburgh and Houston on the road are losable games, even if the Bills don’t play as bad as they did against Miami. Cincinnati has historically given the Bills fits, has one of the best offenses in the NFL, and might have superstar quarterback Joe Burrow back in time for Week 14. Philadelphia has a serious argument to be the best team in the NFL and would be favored against Buffalo if the teams played today. New England already beat Buffalo once in Orchard Park, and hosts the Bills in Week 15. It’s in the realm of possibility that Buffalo goes 2-3, or maybe even 1-4 in that stretch.
Maybe that’s a doomsday scenario, maybe it’s not. But if the Bills lose to Tampa Bay on Sunday, and fall to 6-4, there is no more wiggle room. Does 10 wins get you into the playoffs? Maybe. But do you really want to take that chance if you’re Buffalo? Even if they get into the dance at 10-7, the Bills would be on the road for every game as a wild card team. McDermott is 0-5 in his tenure in Buffalo in road playoff games.
To circle back to McDermott, this game on Sunday is a must-win game. Losing last week to the Dolphins not only took away a large portion of the Bills’ hopes at capturing the division, but really casted a giant cloud of doubt about this team in general. Looking ahead shows a gauntlet, one that comes after the Bills looked shaky in what was supposed to be the easy half of the season. The loss against New England is one thing, the Patriots have been a great team this year. Atlanta and Miami are real headscratchers, given the fact that in games not against the Bills, the teams are a combined 4-12.
The team needs to be not only prepared on Sunday, but fired up and playing with urgency. Ultimately, that job falls on one person, the head coach. Miami was the wake-up call. Don’t let Tampa Bay be the slap in the face.
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