by TYLER HATHAWAY
The Buffalo Bills are coming off of arguably their biggest win of the year against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9. This week, Buffalo is preparing to head down to Florida to face a struggling Miami Dolphins team that has lost four of its past five games. It will be the second matchup of the season for these two division rivals. Here’s the breakdown:
BUFFALO BILLS (6-2/AFC East)
vs.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-7/AFC East)
Sunday, Hard Rock Stadium, 1:00 pm
Storyline #1: Buffalo looking to continue its dominance over Miami
The Bills have been nearly unstoppable against the Dolphins in recent memory. The two teams have met 16 times (including the postseason) since quarterback Josh Allen was drafted by the Bills in 2018. In those matchups, Buffalo is 14-2, and Allen touts a statline of 4,302 passing yards, 43 passing touchdowns, 692 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns.
The two teams played in Week 3 this season, with Buffalo coming away with a 31-21 win on Thursday Night Football. A win this week would give the Bills their longest ever win streak against the Dolphins (8 wins), as well as tie up the all-time series between the two teams at 62-62-1. It would be the sixth time in the past seven seasons that Buffalo swept the season series.
Storyline #2: Josh Allen on track for second straight MVP
Allen is currently the betting favorite through nine weeks to win what would be his second straight NFL MVP award. Allen has thrown for 13 touchdowns, ran for seven, and accrued over 2,100 yards of total offense through eight games.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was previously the MVP favorite before Buffalo took down Kansas City in Week 9. He’s now behind Allen, who set a franchise record with an 88.5% completion percentage while scoring three touchdowns and tallying nearly 300 yards of offense in the win.
“Josh is Josh,” said Bills tight end Dawson Knox after the game last Sunday. “He’s the MVP, he’s the best football player in the world.”
Storyline #3: Miami quiet at deadline despite struggles
Miami is off to its worst start in the Mike McDaniel era, with the 2-7 record being the worst nine-game start to a season the team has had since 2021. Longtime GM Chris Grier was fired after last week’s loss to Baltimore, but McDaniel isn’t expected to go anywhere at least until after the season has finished.
Many around the league thought that the Dolphins would be unloading during Tuesday’s trade deadline, and launching a full rebuild. However, the team only made one move, sending outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips to Philadelphia for a third round pick. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and edge rusher Bradley Chubb were not moved, despite their names circulating in trade rumors all week.
“There wasn’t anything that moved the needle for us to change our roster beyond what we’ve done,” said Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel to reporters this week.
Key to the game #1: Avoid the trap game
With a win against the Chiefs in the rearview mirror, and a home tilt against the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers next week, it’s almost perfectly set up for this week’s tilt against Miami to be a letdown game. One that the Bills must desperately avoid.
As is the case with every trap game, the Bills need to do everything they can to make sure Miami doesn’t hang around in any capacity. So just as I said for the first Bills-Dolphins game, the Bills must take care of the football and get a big lead quickly to kill off any chance of things going sideways and the Bills dropping a game that they shouldn’t.
Last time they played Miami, they let the Dolphins hang around and it took a late interception by Terrel Bernard and a penalty committed by the Dolphins on a Bills punt attempt to close the game out. It can’t go the same way this week.
Key to the game #2: Keep up the pressure up front
Last week was the best the Bills pass rush has looked maybe in the entire Josh Allen era. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes was sacked three times, hit 15 times, and got pressured on 52.6% of his drop backs, which was the highest pressure rate the Bills have ever had against Mahomes.
I would like to see if the Bills can establish that same success they had against the Chiefs this week against Miami. For the first chunk of the season, it really didn’t feel like the Bills had an identity on defense. They haven’t been forcing too many turnovers, have been getting gashed by the run game, and haven’t had too many splash plays to get the ball back in Allen’s hands sooner. But if the pass rush continues to be successful this week, and is not just a flash in the pan, I’ll feel a lot more confident about the Bills defense down the road.
X-Factor: Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman
This week’s X-Factor is more for long-term reasons than impacting the game this week. It’s the second time I’ve put Coleman in this spot this season, and both times its been for the same reason. While it didn’t cost the Bills last week, it was yet another quiet week for the 33rd pick of the draft last season, and it’s starting to become an unfortunate trend.
Coleman opened the season with a career-best performance against the Baltimore Ravens, finishing with eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown. But in the past seven games the Florida State product has been largely missing from the Bills offense, with returns that you wouldn’t really expect from the guy you took with your first draft pick just over a year ago.
He’s only finished with over 30 receiving yards once since Week 2, when he had three catches for 45 yards against New Orleans. He’s had exactly three catches in five of eight games this year, the exceptions being the Week 1 explosion, a four-catch night against New England (where he scored a touchdown, but also had a fumble deep in Bills territory) and last week against the Chiefs, where he only caught two passes.
With a less-than-stellar opponent coming up on the schedule this week, I would just like to see some signs of life from Coleman. I love a lot about his game, like the physicality he plays with and his ability to highpoint the football. Sadly, it hasn’t translated to a whole lot of success on the field. But I have confidence in Coleman, and feel his playmaking ability will show itself once again after he escapes this sophomore slump.
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